Football Stats Hub

Brighton crestBrighton
v
Bologna crestBologna

Friendlies Clubs | Sat 15 Aug, 15:00

Brighton v Bologna Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 07:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Brighton face Bologna in Friendlies Clubs on Sat 15 Aug, 15:00. Brighton & Hove Albion reach their final pre-season fixture with a useful combination of momentum and attacking output. Brighton’s strong pre-season form contrasts with Bologna’s inconsistent preparation, suggesting a home win.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Brighton to win and Over 2

  • At 1.67, Brighton to win and Over 2 implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 53%.
  • Bologna’s defensive struggles and attacking potential suggest they can score once, making a 3-1 correct scoreline a fitting reflection of both teams’ recent patterns.
  • Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Brighton.
  • Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per match, which helps the Brighton to win and Over 2 angle more than a raw possession edge.
Price warning

Brighton to win and Over 2 is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 60% while the model sits nearer 53% (-7 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 2.5 Goals shows a +14.3 pts edge at 1.57.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 53% for Brighton to win and Over 2 sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Brighton. Bologna’s defensive struggles and attacking potential suggest they can score once, making a 3-1 correct scoreline a fitting reflection of both teams’ recent patterns.

Model chance vs price53% model chance against roughly 60% implied
Negative
Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Bologna’s defensive struggles and attacking potential suggest they can.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Brighton Win is the preferred angle because bologna’s defensive struggles and attacking potential suggest they can score once, making a 3-1 correct scoreline a fitting reflection of both teams’ recent patterns. Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Brighton. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Brighton to win and Over 2 evidence

Bologna’s defensive struggles and attacking potential suggest they can score once, making a 3-1 correct scoreline a fitting.

Bologna have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 6 for Brighton.

Brighton have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.5 conceded per match, which helps the Brighton Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Brighton to win and Over 2 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Brighton3.5
    Avg goals scored
    Bologna1.4
    Brighton1.5
    Avg goals conceded
    Bologna2
    Brighton50%
    BTTS rate
    Bologna60%
    Brighton100%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bologna60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    2.25
    Check odds @ 2.25
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
    2.35
    Check odds @ 2.35
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 60% · edge -7 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Brighton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Brighton to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    related match predictionplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Brighton

    WW
    Last 52W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 0D 0L
    08 Aug 2026H AS Roma3-0
    01 Aug 2026H Strasbourg4-3

    Bologna

    LWWDL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 1D 2L
    08 Aug 2026H Pisa1-4
    01 Aug 2026H Cambuur3-1
    25 Jul 2026H Iraklis 19082-0
    22 Jul 2026H 1. FC Heidenheim1-1
    18 Jul 2026H Arminia Bielefeld0-4
    Market aligned with main pickBrighton to WinBetfred guide price · Model 53% vs implied 60% · edge -7 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 78%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Brighton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    100%Brighton Over 2.5
    60%Bologna Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Brighton sit at 100% and Bologna sit at 60%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Loading deeper match data…