Football Stats Hub

Boreham Wood crestBoreham Wood
v
Kidderminster Harriers crestKidderminster Harriers

National League | Tue 29 Sep, 19:00

Boreham Wood v Kidderminster Harriers Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 08:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Boreham Wood hosts Kidderminster Harriers in a National League clash where defensive solidity and tactical caution are likely to dominate. Boreham Wood leads the league and has conceded just 0.8 goals per game, while Kidderminster Harriers rank seventh with an even tighter defensive record of 0.4 goals conceded per match. Both teams have shown contrasting attacking outputs, with Boreham Wood averaging 2.4 goals scored per game and Kidderminster Harriers only 1.4. The matchup suggests a disciplined contest with limited goal-scoring opportunities, as both sides prioritize defensive organization and control in this midweek fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Boreham Wood concedes only 0.8 goals per game, showing strong defensive form.
  • Kidderminster Harriers have an even tighter defense, allowing just 0.4 goals per match.
  • Boreham Wood’s high scoring is tempered by Kidderminster’s defensive discipline, limiting chances.
  • Recent form shows Boreham Wood’s matches often exceed 2.5 goals, but Kidderminster’s do not.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.25, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 50.7% chance, reflecting the strong defensive records of both teams and their tactical approach. Boreham Wood’s solid defense and Kidderminster Harriers’ even more restrictive backline suggest limited scoring opportunities. The head-to-head average of 2.25 goals supports a low-scoring expectation. The current of 2.35 offer positive value with an 8.1% edge, making Under 2.5 Goals an attractive selection based on both statistical evidence and football context.

Defensive strengthBoreham Wood concedes 0.8 goals per game; Kidderminster 0.4
Strong positive
Head-to-head goalsAverage 2.25 goals in last 4 meetings
Positive
Recent form scoringBoreham Wood high scoring but Kidderminster low
Neutral
Market value edge50.7% model chance vs 42.6% implied (+8.1 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sound pick given the defensive discipline both teams have shown this season. Boreham Wood’s attacking threat is balanced by Kidderminster Harriers’ stingy defense, suggesting a tactical, cautious game with limited clear-cut chances. The data supports a low-scoring outcome, making this bet a sensible choice for those expecting a tight contest.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive tactical battle and low goal probability

“This fixture is poised for a tactical battle where defensive organization will likely suppress goal-scoring chances, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation based on both teams’ recent defensive solidity.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Boreham Wood concedes only 0.8 goals per game, showing strong defensive form.

Kidderminster Harriers have an even tighter defense, allowing just 0.4 goals per match.

Recent form shows Boreham Wood’s matches often exceed 2.5 goals, but Kidderminster’s do not.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally is 2.25, indicating a trend toward low-scoring games.
  • This sample, combined with recent form and defensive records, suggests a measured tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the case for Under 2.5 Goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Boreham Wood2.4
Avg goals scored
Kidderminster Harriers1.4
Boreham Wood0.8
Avg goals conceded
Kidderminster Harriers0.4
Boreham Wood80%
BTTS rate
Kidderminster Harriers20%
Boreham Wood80%
Over 2.5 goals
Kidderminster Harriers20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 43% · edge +8.1 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 35%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Goal trends show Boreham Wood’s matches often exceed 2.5 goals due to their attacking style, but Kidderminster Harriers’ games rarely do, with only a 20% over 2.5 rate and low BTTS frequency. The combined effect points to a cautious game with limited goal exchanges and a higher probability of Under 2.5 Goals.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionKidderminster Harriers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Boreham Wood Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Boreham Wood to WinBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Kidderminster Harriers to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 50.7% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 42.6% implied by the current price (+8.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Boreham Wood and 20% for Kidderminster Harriers, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Boreham Wood

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 2D 0L
26 Sep 2026A Solihull Moors3-0
19 Sep 2026H Harrogate Town4-1
16 Sep 2026A Scunthorpe2-1
12 Sep 2026A Eastleigh1-1
05 Sep 2026H Carlisle2-1

Kidderminster Harriers

LDWWW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
26 Sep 2026H Yeovil Town0-1
19 Sep 2026A Woking0-0
16 Sep 2026H Gateshead1-0
11 Sep 2026H Hartlepool2-0
05 Sep 2026A Wealdstone4-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 88% · edge -2.2 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
Kidderminster Harriers Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 47%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Boreham Wood Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.26
Check odds @ 1.26
Boreham Wood to WinBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Kidderminster Harriers to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
Recent form highlights Boreham Wood’s strong point accumulation and offensive output, but also shows vulnerability to conceding in open play. Kidderminster Harriers’ form is characterized by defensive resilience and fewer goals scored, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring encounter dominated by defensive discipline.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Boreham Wood Over 2.5
20%Kidderminster Harriers Over 2.5
2.25H2H avg goals
Over the last four head-to-head meetings, the average goals tally is 2.25, indicating a trend toward low-scoring games. This sample, combined with recent form and defensive records, suggests a measured tempo and limited goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the case for Under 2.5 Goals.

Loading deeper match data…