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Udinese crestUdinese
v
Padova crestPadova

Coppa Italia | Sat 15 Aug, 17:30

Udinese v Padova Stats

Data last updated: Mon 07 Sep 2026, 18:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Udinese face Padova in Coppa Italia on Sat 15 Aug, 17:30. Udinese’s stronger league status and recent pre-season wins position them as favourites against Padova’s inconsistent away form. Padova’s recent scoring form and defensive vulnerabilities suggest both sides will find the net despite Udinese’s control.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Udinese to win and both teams to score

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 31%, above the 22% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • At 11/5, Udinese to win and both teams to score implies roughly 31%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 22%.
  • A 2-1 scoreline balances Udinese’s efficient attack against Padova’s open style.
Price warning

Udinese to win and both teams to score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 31% while the model sits nearer 22% (-9.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Padova Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 4.65.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 22% for Udinese to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 31% implied by the current price. A 2-1 scoreline balances Udinese’s efficient attack against Padova’s open style.

Model chance vs price22% model chance against roughly 31% implied
Negative
A 2-1 scoreline balances Udinese’s efficient attack against Padova’s.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge -9.4 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Udinese Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because a 2-1 scoreline balances Udinese’s efficient attack against Padova’s open style. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Udinese to win and both teams to score evidence

A 2-1 scoreline balances Udinese’s efficient attack against Padova’s open style.

What To Watch In The Data

Udinese to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Udinese wins
0Draws
1Padova wins
25 Mar 2024Udinese v Padova2-3
Market aligned with main pickUdinese to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 74% · edge -30.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
The head-to-head sample gives context for Udinese to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Udinese

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Udinese yet.

Padova

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Padova yet.

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 94% · edge -20.5 pts
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Load more odds for this section
Udinese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Udinese to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Udinese-
Avg goals scored
Padova-
Udinese-
Avg goals conceded
Padova-
Udinese-
BTTS rate
Padova-
Udinese-
Over 2.5 goals
Padova-
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 82% · edge -5.6 pts
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickUdinese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 85% · edge -31.2 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Udinese to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Udinese Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Udinese2
Played
Padova1
Udinese1.5
Avg goals for
Padova0
Udinese0.5
Avg goals against
Padova1
Udinese1
Clean sheets
Padova0
Market aligned with main pickUdinese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 85% · edge -31.2 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Udinese to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Season data supports Udinese Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Udinese Over 2.5
-Padova Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
A 2-1 scoreline balances Udinese’s efficient attack against Padova’s open style.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Udinese v Padova prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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Next step

Betting context

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