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Udinese crestUdinese
v
Padova crestPadova

Coppa Italia | Sat 15 Aug, 17:30

Udinese v Padova Stats

Data last updated: Fri 14 Aug 2026, 07:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Udinese host Padova in this Coppa Italia clash, bringing Serie A experience and recent pre-season momentum with narrow wins over Nottingham Forest and Barcelona. Udinese's tactical approach focuses on possession control and efficient shot accuracy, but their defensive record shows vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.33 goals in recent matches. Padova, from Serie B, present an unpredictable attacking threat, averaging 1.67 goals per game recently, though their defensive frailties and poor away form, with four losses in six away fixtures, leave them exposed. This sets up a contest where Udinese's control meets Padova's volatility, promising goals at both ends and a likely home victory.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Udinese to Win & Both Teams to Score

  • Udinese have won back-to-back pre-season matches 1-0 against strong opponents, showing defensive discipline but conceding 1.33 goals on average recently.
  • Padova score frequently, netting 1.67 goals per game in their last six matches, but concede 2.33 goals on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.
  • Both teams scored in 67% of Padova's recent matches, including a 3-3 draw, supporting the BTTS angle.
  • Udinese average 11.66 shots per game with 35% accuracy, outshooting Padova who average 11.03 shots with 33% accuracy, indicating offensive edge for Udinese.
Price warning

Udinese to Win & Both Teams to Score is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 31% while the model sits nearer 22% (-9.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Padova Draw No Bet shows a +15 pts edge at 4.5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes Udinese's home advantage and higher shot accuracy as key factors supporting a home win, while Padova's recent scoring form and defensive lapses justify both teams scoring. However, the current imply a higher chance than the model's 20.4%, making this a football-led pick rather than a value bet. Reduced staking or waiting for improvement is advised. Limited data for both teams means line-ups and late news could influence outcomes significantly.

Udinese home strength and shot accuracyPositive influence with 11.66 shots/game and 35% accuracy
Positive
Padova scoring and defensive frailtyHigh goals scored (1.67) but also conceded (2.33) recently
Positive
Model chance vs market oddsModel chance 20.4% vs implied 31.3%, indicating price is short
Negative
Data qualityLimited recent data for both teams increases uncertainty
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Udinese's Serie A experience and recent pre-season form suggest they will control the match and secure a win. Padova's attacking threat and defensive lapses make it likely both teams will score, aligning with the tactical and statistical indicators for a competitive, goal-filled encounter.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and goals

“Udinese's blend of tactical control and shot efficiency contrasts with Padova's open, high-scoring style, making a home win with goals at both ends a compelling scenario despite the price sensitivity.”

Key Data Signals

Udinese to Win & Both Teams to Score evidence

Udinese have won back-to-back pre-season matches 1-0 against strong opponents, showing defensive discipline but conceding 1.33 goals on average recently.

Padova score frequently, netting 1.67 goals per game in their last six matches, but concede 2.33 goals on average, highlighting defensive weaknesses.

Both teams scored in 67% of Padova's recent matches, including a 3-3 draw, supporting the BTTS angle.

Udinese average 11.66 shots per game with 35% accuracy, outshooting Padova who average 11.03 shots with 33% accuracy, indicating offensive edge for Udinese.

What To Watch In The Data

Udinese to Win & Both Teams to Score notes

  • In the last six matches, Padova have seen 67% of games with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, reflecting an open, attacking style.
  • Udinese's matches have been tighter, with only 33% exceeding 2.5 goals.
  • This trend suggests a match with moderate to high tempo and goal opportunities, driven by Padova's volatility and Udinese's offensive efficiency.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Udinese wins
0Draws
1Padova wins
25 Mar 2024Udinese v Padova2-3
Market aligned with main pickUdinese to WinBetUK guide price · Model 43% vs implied 71% · edge -28.4 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The limited head-to-head data, with only one recent meeting averaging five goals, offers a small sample but indicates potential for a high-scoring game. While this single match supports the goals expectation, the broader tactical and form context provides stronger guidance for the current fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Udinese

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Udinese yet.

Padova

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Padova yet.

Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 94% · edge -20.5 pts
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
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Udinese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
Udinese to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Udinese's recent pre-season form includes disciplined 1-0 wins, reflecting defensive solidity but also a tendency to concede occasionally. Padova's form is more volatile, with high-scoring games and defensive lapses, especially on the road where they have lost four of six matches. This contrast in form underpins the expectation of a competitive match with goals from both sides but a home win for Udinese.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Udinese-
Avg goals scored
Padova-
Udinese-
Avg goals conceded
Padova-
Udinese-
BTTS rate
Padova-
Udinese-
Over 2.5 goals
Padova-
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 83% · edge -6.9 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Padova's recent matches have featured high goal counts, averaging 4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of fixtures. Udinese's tighter defensive record contrasts with this, conceding 1.33 goals per game, but not enough to prevent Padova from scoring. This dynamic supports the likelihood of both teams finding the net, with a probable total exceeding two goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickUdinese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 84% · edge -30.5 pts
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Udinese to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The current of 3.2 for Udinese to Win & Both Teams to Score imply a 31.3% chance, which is notably higher than the model's 20.4% probability. This discrepancy suggests the market price is short, reflecting bettors' in goals from both sides and Udinese's home advantage. While the football read is strong, the pricing advises caution and reduced stakes until further team news or movement occurs.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Coppa Italia

Udinese0
Played
Padova0
Udinese0
Avg goals for
Padova0
Udinese0
Avg goals against
Padova0
Udinese0
Clean sheets
Padova0
Market aligned with main pickUdinese Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 84% · edge -30.5 pts
1.19
Check odds @ 1.19
Load more odds for this section
Udinese to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over the longer term, Udinese's season stats show a balanced attack and defense with 49 goals scored and 51 conceded in 41 matches, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring games. Padova's recent matches, however, have been more open and high-scoring, with a higher goals-against average, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities that Udinese can exploit while still conceding themselves.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Udinese Over 2.5
-Padova Over 2.5
5H2H avg goals
In the last six matches, Padova have seen 67% of games with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, reflecting an open, attacking style. Udinese's matches have been tighter, with only 33% exceeding 2.5 goals. This trend suggests a match with moderate to high tempo and goal opportunities, driven by Padova's volatility and Udinese's offensive efficiency.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Udinese v Padova prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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