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SC Freiburg crestSC Freiburg
v
VfL Wolfsburg crestVfL Wolfsburg

Bundesliga | Sun 03 May, 18:30

SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg Stats

Data last updated: Fri 17 Jul 2026, 00:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Freiburg face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga on Sun 03 May, 18:30. SC Freiburg come in with 9 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while VfL Wolfsburg have 4 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

SC Freiburg to Win

  • At 2.45, SC Freiburg Win implies roughly 41%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 67%.
  • SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for VfL Wolfsburg.
  • SC Freiburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per match, which helps the SC Freiburg Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • SC Freiburg sit 7 in the table, while VfL Wolfsburg sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 67% for SC Freiburg Win sits against roughly 41% implied by the current price. SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for VfL Wolfsburg.

Model chance vs price67% model chance against roughly 41% implied
Strong positive
SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 9.Visible data support
Positive
SC Freiburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: SC Freiburg Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for VfL Wolfsburg. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

SC Freiburg Win evidence

SC Freiburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 4 for VfL Wolfsburg.

SC Freiburg have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.8 conceded per match, which helps the SC Freiburg Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

SC Freiburg sit 7 in the table, while VfL Wolfsburg sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

SC Freiburg Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    SC Freiburg1.4
    Avg goals scored
    VfL Wolfsburg1.2
    SC Freiburg1.8
    Avg goals conceded
    VfL Wolfsburg2
    SC Freiburg60%
    BTTS rate
    VfL Wolfsburg60%
    SC Freiburg80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    VfL Wolfsburg60%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 36% · edge +33.6 pts
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
    1.2
    Check odds @ 1.2
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 41% · edge +25.7 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    SC Freiburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    SC Freiburg to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    SC Freiburg3.5
    Avg corners for
    VfL Wolfsburg5
    SC Freiburg9
    Avg total corners
    VfL Wolfsburg13.5
    SC Freiburg2
    Avg yellow cards
    VfL Wolfsburg2
    SC Freiburg14
    Avg shots
    VfL Wolfsburg11.5
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 64%
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    SC Freiburg

    LWWLW
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 5L
    26 Apr 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-4
    19 Apr 2026H 1. FC Heidenheim2-1
    12 Apr 2026A FSV Mainz 051-0
    04 Apr 2026H Bayern München2-3
    22 Mar 2026A FC St. Pauli2-1

    VfL Wolfsburg

    DWLLL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 3D 6L
    25 Apr 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0
    18 Apr 2026A Union Berlin2-1
    11 Apr 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-2
    04 Apr 2026A Bayer Leverkusen3-6
    21 Mar 2026H Werder Bremen0-1
    Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 41% · edge +25.7 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    SC Freiburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    7SC Freiburg wins
    0Draws
    3VfL Wolfsburg wins
    20 Dec 2025VfL Wolfsburg v SC Freiburg3-4
    26 Apr 2025VfL Wolfsburg v SC Freiburg0-1
    13 Dec 2024SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg3-2
    27 Apr 2024SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg1-2
    09 Dec 2023VfL Wolfsburg v SC Freiburg0-1
    22 Jul 2023SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg2-3
    Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 41% · edge +25.7 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for SC Freiburg to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    SC Freiburg34
    Played
    VfL Wolfsburg36
    SC Freiburg1.5
    Avg goals for
    VfL Wolfsburg1.3
    SC Freiburg1.7
    Avg goals against
    VfL Wolfsburg2
    SC Freiburg6
    Clean sheets
    VfL Wolfsburg3
    Market aligned with main pickSC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 41% · edge +25.7 pts
    2.45
    Check odds @ 2.45
    Load more odds for this section
    SC Freiburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 75%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Season data supports SC Freiburg to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    7SC Freiburg473413813-6
    16VfL Wolfsburg29347819-24
    SC Freiburg sit in position 7, while VfL Wolfsburg sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the SC Freiburg Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%SC Freiburg Over 2.5
    60%VfL Wolfsburg Over 2.5
    3.7H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: SC Freiburg sit at 80% and VfL Wolfsburg sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

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