SC Freiburg

VfL Wolfsburg

Bundesliga | Sun 03 May, 18:30

SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg Stats

Data last updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026, 05:14 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

SC Freiburg face VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga on Sun 03 May, 18:30. SC Freiburg come in with 9 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while VfL Wolfsburg have 4 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

At 1.67, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 60%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 72%.
The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for SC Freiburg and 60% for VfL Wolfsburg, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
SC Freiburg are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with VfL Wolfsburg at 1.2.
BTTS rates of 60% for SC Freiburg and 60% for VfL Wolfsburg show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 72% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 60% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for SC Freiburg and 60% for VfL Wolfsburg, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price72% model chance against roughly 60% implied

Positive

The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for SC Freiburg.Visible data support

Positive

SC Freiburg are carrying more of the scoring load at.Visible data support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for SC Freiburg and 60% for VfL Wolfsburg, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for SC Freiburg and 60% for VfL Wolfsburg, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

SC Freiburg are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with VfL Wolfsburg at 1.2.

BTTS rates of 60% for SC Freiburg and 60% for VfL Wolfsburg show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

SC Freiburg1.4

Avg goals scored

VfL Wolfsburg1.2

SC Freiburg1.8

Avg goals conceded

VfL Wolfsburg2

SC Freiburg60%

BTTS rate

VfL Wolfsburg60%

SC Freiburg80%

Over 2.5 goals

VfL Wolfsburg60%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +12.5 pts

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Load more odds for this section

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%

1.2

Check odds @ 1.2

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 51%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 32%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 34%

1.4

Check odds @ 1.4

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +12.5 pts

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Load more odds for this section

SC Freiburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

2.45

Check odds @ 2.45

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 51%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

SC Freiburg3.2

Avg corners for

VfL Wolfsburg5.8

SC Freiburg8.4

Avg total corners

VfL Wolfsburg13.6

SC Freiburg1.6

Avg yellow cards

VfL Wolfsburg2

SC Freiburg12

Avg shots

VfL Wolfsburg12.2

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Load more odds for this section

Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

SC Freiburg

LWWLW

Last 53W 0D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 104W 1D 5L

26 Apr 2026A Borussia Dortmund0-4

19 Apr 2026H 1. FC Heidenheim2-1

12 Apr 2026A FSV Mainz 051-0

04 Apr 2026H Bayern München2-3

22 Mar 2026A FC St. Pauli2-1

VfL Wolfsburg

DWLLL

Last 51W 1D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 3D 6L

25 Apr 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0

18 Apr 2026A Union Berlin2-1

11 Apr 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt1-2

04 Apr 2026A Bayer Leverkusen3-6

21 Mar 2026H Werder Bremen0-1

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.5 pts

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Load more odds for this section

SC Freiburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 69%

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

2.45

Check odds @ 2.45

VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

VfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 46%

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

7SC Freiburg wins

0Draws

3VfL Wolfsburg wins

20 Dec 2025VfL Wolfsburg v SC Freiburg3-4

26 Apr 2025VfL Wolfsburg v SC Freiburg0-1

13 Dec 2024SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg3-2

27 Apr 2024SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg1-2

09 Dec 2023VfL Wolfsburg v SC Freiburg0-1

22 Jul 2023SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg2-3

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 60% · edge +12.5 pts

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Load more odds for this section

SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

2.45

Check odds @ 2.45

BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 51%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 23%

3.25

Check odds @ 3.25

VfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

The head-to-head sample gives context for Over 2.5 Goals, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Bundesliga

SC Freiburg34

Played

VfL Wolfsburg36

SC Freiburg1.5

Avg goals for

VfL Wolfsburg1.3

SC Freiburg1.7

Avg goals against

VfL Wolfsburg2

SC Freiburg6

Clean sheets

VfL Wolfsburg3

Best odds for this sectionSC Freiburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 54% · edge +15 pts

1.85

Check odds @ 1.85

Load more odds for this section

SC Freiburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 56%

2.45

Check odds @ 2.45

VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

VfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Season data supports SC Freiburg Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
7	SC Freiburg	47	34	13	8	13	-6
16	VfL Wolfsburg	29	34	7	8	19	-24

SC Freiburg sit in position 7, while VfL Wolfsburg sit in position 16, so table pressure belongs in the Over 2.5 Goals assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%SC Freiburg Over 2.5

60%VfL Wolfsburg Over 2.5

3.7H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: SC Freiburg sit at 80% and VfL Wolfsburg sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.7 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre

Football Stats Hub

SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

SC Freiburg

VfL Wolfsburg

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

SC Freiburg v VfL Wolfsburg Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

SC Freiburg

VfL Wolfsburg

Related football research

Prediction context

More stats pages

Competition and hubs

Next step