Football Stats Hub

AFC Fylde crestAFC Fylde
v
Hartlepool crestHartlepool

National League | Tue 27 Oct, 19:45

AFC Fylde v Hartlepool Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 13:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League clash features AFC Fylde hosting Hartlepool in a fixture where both teams have shown mixed recent form. AFC Fylde sits comfortably in 7th place but has struggled to convert chances into goals, averaging just 0.8 goals per game recently. Hartlepool, despite being 19th, have been more resilient defensively and slightly more productive offensively, scoring 1.4 goals per match in recent outings. The tactical battle is likely to be tight, with Hartlepool aiming to avoid defeat and capitalize on counter-attacks, while Fylde will seek to break down a disciplined away side. The match carries importance for both sides' league ambitions, adding to the competitive tension.

BT4Y best bet

Hartlepool or Draw

  • Hartlepool or Draw offers a strong with a 24.1% positive difference between and implied .
  • Hartlepool has earned 6 points recently, matching AFC Fylde's form but with better goal scoring output.
  • AFC Fylde's low BTTS rate (20%) contrasts with Hartlepool's 60%, suggesting Hartlepool's defense may hold firm.
  • The H2H average of 3.67 goals per game indicates potential for an open game, but Hartlepool's defensive solidity supports a cautious approach.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Hartlepool or Draw with a 74.1% chance, significantly higher than the 50% implied by , highlighting clear value. Hartlepool's recent form shows better goal scoring and a higher BTTS rate, indicating more offensive threat and defensive resilience. AFC Fylde's struggles to score and low BTTS rate suggest difficulty breaking down Hartlepool's defense. The model is strong at 78%, supported by balanced recent points and tactical considerations favoring Hartlepool's ability to avoid defeat. No data limitations affect this analysis.

Model Chance vs Implied Chance40.6% model chance vs 25.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsBoth teams 6 points
Neutral
Goals For Recent MatchesHartlepool 1.4, Fylde 0.8
Positive
BTTS RateHartlepool 60%, Fylde 20%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hartlepool or Draw is a tactically sound pick given Hartlepool's recent ability to score and defend better than AFC Fylde, who have struggled offensively. The data shows Hartlepool's resilience and potential to avoid defeat, making this double chance selection a prudent choice for this National League fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based confidence in Hartlepool's resilience

“Hartlepool's recent form and defensive organization make them a solid candidate to avoid defeat here, especially against a Fylde side that has struggled to find the net consistently.”

Key Data Signals

Hartlepool or Draw evidence

Hartlepool or Draw offers a strong with a 24.1% positive difference between and implied .

Hartlepool has earned 6 points recently, matching AFC Fylde's form but with better goal scoring output.

AFC Fylde's low BTTS rate (20%) contrasts with Hartlepool's 60%, suggesting Hartlepool's defense may hold firm.

The H2H average of 3.67 goals per game indicates potential for an open game, but Hartlepool's defensive solidity supports a cautious approach.

What To Watch In The Data

Hartlepool or Draw notes

  • The average of 3.67 goals in the last nine meetings indicates a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters.
  • This trend supports the possibility of an engaging match with scoring opportunities, but Hartlepool's defensive solidity and Fylde's scoring struggles suggest a cautious game with Hartlepool likely to avoid defeat.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AFC Fylde0.8
Avg goals scored
Hartlepool1.4
AFC Fylde1.8
Avg goals conceded
Hartlepool1.8
AFC Fylde20%
BTTS rate
Hartlepool60%
AFC Fylde40%
Over 2.5 goals
Hartlepool60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 80% vs implied 88% · edge -7.8 pts
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent goal trends show Hartlepool averaging 1.4 goals per game and a 60% BTTS rate, contrasting with AFC Fylde's 0.8 goals and 20% BTTS rate. This suggests Hartlepool's matches are more open and likely to feature goals from both sides, although Fylde's low scoring hints at a potentially cautious home approach.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionHartlepool Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Hartlepool to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
AFC Fylde Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
The 40.6% for Hartlepool or Draw sits against roughly 25.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AFC Fylde

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
24 Oct 2026A Boreham Wood0-4
10 Oct 2026H Scunthorpe2-0
03 Oct 2026A Southend1-3
29 Sep 2026H Carlisle0-2
26 Sep 2026A Boston United1-0

Hartlepool

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
24 Oct 2026H AFC Hornchurch2-1
10 Oct 2026A Forest Green4-2
03 Oct 2026H Tamworth0-1
29 Sep 2026H Harrogate Town0-1
26 Sep 2026A Scunthorpe1-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Hartlepool Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Hartlepool to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
AFC Fylde Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.42
Check odds @ 1.42
AFC Fylde to WinBetMGM guide price · model 39%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Both teams have collected 6 points recently, but Hartlepool's higher goal average and BTTS rate indicate a more effective attack and resilient defense. This balance supports the likelihood of Hartlepool avoiding defeat, as they have shown the capacity to both score and limit opposition chances better than AFC Fylde in recent matches.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%AFC Fylde Over 2.5
60%Hartlepool Over 2.5
3.67H2H avg goals
The average of 3.67 goals in the last nine meetings indicates a tendency for open, goal-rich encounters. This trend supports the possibility of an engaging match with scoring opportunities, but Hartlepool's defensive solidity and Fylde's scoring struggles suggest a cautious game with Hartlepool likely to avoid defeat.

Loading deeper match data…