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Tamworth crestTamworth
v
Scunthorpe crestScunthorpe

National League | Tue 27 Oct, 19:45

Tamworth v Scunthorpe Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tamworth and Scunthorpe face off in a National League clash where both teams are battling to climb the lower reaches of the table. Tamworth, currently 20th with 14 points, have shown more resilience recently, collecting 9 points in their last matches compared to Scunthorpe's 3. Both teams tend to see lively encounters, with a shared 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals. Tamworth's slightly better defensive record and home advantage set the stage for a competitive fixture with Tamworth aiming to capitalize on their momentum.

BT4Y best bet

Tamworth to Win

  • Tamworth holds a 71.7% to win, indicating strong in their victory.
  • Recent form favors Tamworth with 9 points gained versus Scunthorpe's 3 in recent matches.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting open play.
  • Tamworth's defensive record is marginally better, conceding 1.6 goals per game compared to Scunthorpe's 2.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.75 over four meetings, indicating moderately high-scoring games.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Tamworth to win with a 71.7% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and slightly better defensive stability. Tamworth's ability to secure 9 points recently compared to Scunthorpe's 3 underpins this . The implied of 2.15 offer positive value given the model's edge of 25.2%. Both teams' tendency for over 2.5 goals suggests an open game, but Tamworth's home advantage and form edge make them the likely winners. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Recent FormTamworth 9 points vs Scunthorpe 3 points
Strong positive
Defensive RecordTamworth concedes 1.6 goals per game, Scunthorpe 2
Positive
Goal Trends60% Over 2.5 goals rate for both teams
Neutral
Model Probability61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge61.5% model chance vs 46.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Tamworth's recent form and home advantage provide a solid foundation for victory against Scunthorpe, who have struggled to gain points recently. The slightly better defensive record and momentum favor Tamworth tactically and statistically, making them the logical choice for a win in this fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Tamworth's improved form and defensive steadiness give them a clear tactical edge over Scunthorpe, whose recent struggles make them vulnerable in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Tamworth to Win evidence

Tamworth holds a 71.7% to win, indicating strong in their victory.

Recent form favors Tamworth with 9 points gained versus Scunthorpe's 3 in recent matches.

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, suggesting open play.

Tamworth's defensive record is marginally better, conceding 1.6 goals per game compared to Scunthorpe's 2.

What To Watch In The Data

Tamworth to Win notes

  • In the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 2.75, aligning with both teams' 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • This trend suggests a fast-paced match with attacking intent from both sides, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals and an open game tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Tamworth1.4
Avg goals scored
Scunthorpe1.2
Tamworth1.6
Avg goals conceded
Scunthorpe2
Tamworth60%
BTTS rate
Scunthorpe40%
Tamworth60%
Over 2.5 goals
Scunthorpe60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 89% · edge -7.6 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency for open, attacking games. The head-to-head average of 2.75 goals over four meetings supports expectations of a lively contest with multiple scoring opportunities and a likelihood of both teams contributing to the scoreline.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickTamworth to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 61.5% for Tamworth to Win sits against roughly 46.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Tamworth have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 3 for Scunthorpe.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Tamworth

LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Barrow1-2
03 Oct 2026A Hartlepool1-0
30 Sep 2026H Sutton Utd2-0
26 Sep 2026A Aldershot Town1-5
19 Sep 2026H Wealdstone2-1

Scunthorpe

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 7L
24 Oct 2026H Woking2-3
10 Oct 2026A AFC Fylde0-2
29 Sep 2026A Barrow0-3
26 Sep 2026H Hartlepool4-1
19 Sep 2026A AFC Hornchurch0-1
Market aligned with main pickTamworth to WinBet365 guide price · Model 62% vs implied 47% · edge +15 pts
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Tamworth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Tamworth's recent accumulation of 9 points compared to Scunthorpe's 3 highlights a clear momentum advantage. This form difference suggests Tamworth are more confident and cohesive, likely translating into better execution on both ends of the pitch, which is critical in tight league battles.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Tamworth Over 2.5
60%Scunthorpe Over 2.5
2.75H2H avg goals
In the last four meetings, the average goals per game is 2.75, aligning with both teams' 60% over 2.5 goals rate this season. This trend suggests a fast-paced match with attacking intent from both sides, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals and an open game tempo.

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