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Coritiba crestCoritiba
v
Gremio crestGremio

Serie A | Mon 26 Oct, 22:30

Coritiba v Gremio Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 07:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Coritiba and Gremio face off in a Serie A clash where both teams show contrasting defensive records but similar corner statistics, setting the stage for a contest with significant wing play and set-piece opportunities. Coritiba's recent form shows a higher rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, while Gremio has a stronger tendency for both teams to score, indicating open play and attacking intent. Both sides average around five corners per match, suggesting a combined total likely to surpass nine corners, especially given their offensive approaches and defensive vulnerabilities.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Coritiba averages 5 corners per game, Gremio 5.25, combining for over 10 corners on average.
  • Recent matches show Coritiba has a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.
  • Gremio concedes fewer goals but maintains an 80% BTTS rate, pointing to offensive activity on both sides.
  • for over 9.5 corners is 69%, with a positive of 13.4%.
  • Both teams' average shots per game (Coritiba 12.2, Gremio 14.75) support sustained attacking pressure and corner opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 9.5 Corners with a 69% chance, reflecting both teams' tendencies to generate set-piece opportunities through sustained attacking pressure and defensive lapses. Coritiba and Gremio average over 10 combined corners per match, supported by their shot volumes and open playing styles. The positive and rating reinforce this as a strong statistical angle. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation based on solid data and tactical context.

Average corners per match10.25 combined
Strong positive
Model chance69% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Value edge69% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+13.4 pts)
Strong positive
Recent form attacking opennessCoritiba 60% over 2.5 goals rate
Positive
Shot volumeCoritiba 12.2, Gremio 14.75 average shots
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match with frequent wing play and attacking transitions leading to numerous corners. Coritiba's higher goals conceded and Gremio's offensive intent suggest both sides will push forward, creating set-piece chances. The combined corner average and recent attacking form support a bet on Over 9.5 Corners as a tactically and statistically sound choice.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corners market

“This fixture's corner count is likely to be high given both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Coritiba averages 5 corners per game, Gremio 5.25, combining for over 10 corners on average.

Recent matches show Coritiba has a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.

For over 9.5 corners is 69%, with a positive of 13.4%.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 2.4, indicating moderately open games.
  • Combined with recent form, this suggests a tempo that supports over 2.5 goals and sustained attacking phases, which often translate into higher corner counts through crosses and set-piece situations.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Coritiba0.8
Avg goals scored
Gremio1.2
Coritiba2.8
Avg goals conceded
Gremio1.8
Coritiba40%
BTTS rate
Gremio80%
Coritiba60%
Over 2.5 goals
Gremio40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 60% · edge +10.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 34%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Coritiba's 60% over 2.5 goals rate and Gremio's 80% BTTS rate indicate open matches with attacking intent from both sides. These trends suggest sustained pressure and frequent attacking sequences, which typically generate more corners and goal-scoring opportunities, reinforcing the likelihood of a high corner count.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Coritiba

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
17 Oct 2026A Atletico-MG0-1
12 Oct 2026H Botafogo1-1
09 Oct 2026A Fluminense0-4
20 Sep 2026A Vasco DA Gama0-5
12 Sep 2026H Atletico Paranaense3-3

Gremio

LDDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 6L
18 Oct 2026H Cruzeiro2-4
11 Oct 2026H Internacional1-1
07 Oct 2026A Remo1-1
20 Sep 2026H Palmeiras0-0
16 Sep 2026A Botafogo2-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Gremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Gremio to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Coritiba to WinBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Coritiba's recent matches show a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals, reflecting attacking openness despite defensive fragility. Gremio's 40% over 2.5 goals rate combined with an 80% BTTS rate suggests balanced attacking and defensive play. These form trends align with a match environment conducive to frequent corners due to active offense and defensive pressure.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionGremio Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Gremio to WinBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Coritiba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
The 69% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+13.4 pts). Coritiba lead the corner sample at 5 per match, with Gremio lower at 4.6.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Coritiba Over 2.5
40%Gremio Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per match is 2.4, indicating moderately open games. Combined with recent form, this suggests a tempo that supports over 2.5 goals and sustained attacking phases, which often translate into higher corner counts through crosses and set-piece situations.

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