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Worthing crestWorthing
v
Southend crestSouthend

National League | Tue 27 Oct, 19:45

Worthing v Southend Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Worthing and Southend meet in a high-stakes National League clash, both teams showing strong attacking form this season. Worthing ranks 4th with 27 points, while Southend is just above in 3rd place with 28 points, making this a pivotal fixture. Both sides have demonstrated a penchant for goals, with Worthing averaging 2.4 goals scored per game and Southend close behind at 2.0. Defensively, Worthing has been more resilient, conceding only 0.8 goals per match compared to Southend's 1.8. The attacking strengths and league positions set the stage for an open, goal-rich encounter under the lights on Tuesday evening.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Worthing averages 2.4 goals scored per game this season.
  • Southend scores 2.0 goals per match, showing strong offensive output.
  • Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.
  • Worthing concedes only 0.8 goals per game, Southend concedes 1.8.
  • No previous head-to-head data, adding unpredictability to the fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% chance, reflecting the attacking prowess of both Worthing and Southend. Both teams maintain high Over 2.5 Goals rates at 80%, indicating frequent high-scoring games. Worthing's strong offense combined with Southend's more open defense suggests multiple goal opportunities. The current at 1.91 offer a small positive of 5.6%, making this an attractive bet with good . The absence of head-to-head data means the model relies heavily on season-long scoring trends and recent form, which strongly support a goal-laden match.

Worthing Goals For2.4 per game
Strong positive
Southend Goals For2.0 per game
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate80% both teams
Strong positive
Worthing Goals Against0.8 per game
Positive
Southend Goals Against1.8 per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game given both teams' strong scoring records and league positions. Worthing's solid defense may be tested by Southend's offensive threat, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals. The statistical trends and league context support a high-scoring encounter, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · attacking potential and match dynamics

“This fixture features two of the National League's most potent attacks, with both sides regularly involved in high-scoring matches. The combination of Worthing's defensive solidity and Southend's offensive ambition sets up an intriguing battle likely to produce plenty of goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Worthing averages 2.4 goals scored per game this season.

Southend scores 2.0 goals per match, showing strong offensive output.

Both teams have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate this season.

Worthing concedes only 0.8 goals per game, Southend concedes 1.8.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last season, both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring matches.
  • Although no head-to-head data exists, these trends suggest a fast-paced game with multiple goals, driven by attacking tempo and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Worthing2.4
Avg goals scored
Southend2
Worthing0.8
Avg goals conceded
Southend1.8
Worthing80%
BTTS rate
Southend100%
Worthing80%
Over 2.5 goals
Southend80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 52% · edge +5.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Both teams have an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals this season, highlighting a consistent pattern of high-scoring games. Worthing's strong offense and Southend's willingness to concede more goals suggest multiple scoring opportunities. BTTS rates are also high, especially Southend's 100%, indicating both sides are likely to find the net, supporting an open game with several goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionWorthing Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Worthing to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetUK guide price · model 21%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Southend Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Southend to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (+5.6 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Worthing and 80% for Southend, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Worthing

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
24 Oct 2026A Kidderminster Harriers2-1
10 Oct 2026H Solihull Moors5-0
03 Oct 2026A Gateshead2-1
29 Sep 2026A Yeovil Town1-1
26 Sep 2026H FC Halifax Town2-1

Southend

DWWDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
24 Oct 2026H FC Halifax Town2-2
10 Oct 2026A Boston United2-1
03 Oct 2026H AFC Fylde3-1
30 Sep 2026A Eastleigh1-1
26 Sep 2026H Barrow2-4
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetUK guide price · Model 79% vs implied 64% · edge +15 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Worthing Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Worthing to WinBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
DrawBetUK guide price · model 21%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Southend Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Southend to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Recent form data shows Worthing accumulating 13 points with an average of 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game, indicating strong attacking and defensive balance. Southend has 8 points recently, scoring 2.0 goals but conceding 1.8, reflecting a more open defensive approach. Both teams' recent performances favor a high-scoring match, aligning with the Over 3.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Worthing Over 2.5
80%Southend Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last season, both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a strong trend towards high-scoring matches. Although no head-to-head data exists, these trends suggest a fast-paced game with multiple goals, driven by attacking tempo and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

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