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Flamengo crestFlamengo
v
Atletico-MG crestAtletico-MG

Serie A | Mon 26 Oct, 23:00

Flamengo v Atletico-MG Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 07:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Flamengo and Atletico-MG meet in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown attacking intent and resilience in recent matches. Flamengo, sitting second in the league, have scored consistently while Atletico-MG, ranked sixth, have also found the net regularly despite a slightly more cautious approach. Both sides have similar defensive records, suggesting a competitive encounter with chances at both ends. The match promises tactical battles with Flamengo's offensive prowess facing Atletico-MG's disciplined defense, setting the stage for a likely open game with goals from both teams.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Flamengo and Atletico-MG both average 60% BTTS rate this season.
  • Flamengo's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking strength.
  • Both teams average around 18 shots per game, showing offensive activity.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals, supporting goal-scoring potential.
  • Flamengo ranks 2nd and Atletico-MG 6th, both pushing for important points.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 73.3% chance, well above the implied market chance of 51.3%, indicating strong value. Both Flamengo and Atletico-MG have consistent attacking outputs and concede goals at similar rates, reinforcing the likelihood of goals at both ends. Recent form shows Flamengo's high scoring and Atletico-MG's ability to find the net despite defensive solidity. The balanced offensive and defensive profiles combined with historical goal averages support this BTTS pick confidently.

Model Chance66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Flamengo BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Atletico-MG BTTS Rate60%
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate Flamengo80%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both Flamengo and Atletico-MG have shown consistent attacking threat and concede goals regularly, making Both Teams to Score a logical pick. Flamengo's offensive firepower combined with Atletico-MG's ability to create chances suggests goals at both ends. The data supports an open game where both sides find the net, reflecting their recent form and season-long scoring patterns.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS market rationale

“Flamengo's dynamic attack and Atletico-MG's balanced offense create a scenario ripe for goals from both teams, making the BTTS market a compelling angle for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Flamengo and Atletico-MG both average 60% BTTS rate this season.

Flamengo's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating attacking strength.

Both teams average around 18 shots per game, showing offensive activity.

Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals, supporting goal-scoring potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, with Flamengo's recent games showing an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate.
  • This trend highlights a high-tempo, attacking style that often results in multiple goals, reinforcing the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals narrative for this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Flamengo2
Avg goals scored
Atletico-MG1.4
Flamengo0.8
Avg goals conceded
Atletico-MG0.8
Flamengo60%
BTTS rate
Atletico-MG60%
Flamengo80%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico-MG40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 39%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both Flamengo and Atletico-MG have a 60% BTTS rate this season, supported by Flamengo's 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate. Their matches regularly feature multiple goals, reflecting open play and attacking intent. The average 2.3 goals in their last 10 meetings further underline the likelihood of goals at both ends in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Atletico-MG to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
11
Check odds @ 11
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
The 66.3% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Flamengo show a 60% BTTS rate and Atletico-MG show a 60% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Flamengo

WWDWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 1D 1L
18 Oct 2026A Bahia3-0
11 Oct 2026H Fluminense1-0
08 Oct 2026A Santos2-2
20 Sep 2026H RB Bragantino2-1
13 Sep 2026H Corinthians2-1

Atletico-MG

WWDWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
17 Oct 2026H Coritiba1-0
11 Oct 2026H Santos2-1
09 Oct 2026A Atletico Paranaense2-2
03 Oct 2026H RB Bragantino1-0
19 Sep 2026H Chapecoense-sc1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Atletico-MG Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 35%
5
Check odds @ 5
Atletico-MG to WinBetMGM guide price · model 24%
11
Check odds @ 11
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
DrawBet365 guide price · model 26%
5
Check odds @ 5
Flamengo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Flamengo to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Recent form data shows Flamengo earning 13 points with 2 goals scored per game and conceding 0.8, while Atletico-MG has 11 points with 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Both teams maintain a 60% BTTS rate in recent matches, confirming their tendency to both score and concede, which aligns well with the BTTS pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Flamengo Over 2.5
40%Atletico-MG Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals per game between these teams is 2.3, with Flamengo's recent games showing an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate. This trend highlights a high-tempo, attacking style that often results in multiple goals, reinforcing the BTTS and Over 2.5 goals narrative for this fixture.

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