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Mantova crestMantova
v
Cremonese crestCremonese

Serie B | Tue 27 Oct, 19:00

Mantova v Cremonese Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 08:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie B fixture features Mantova hosting Cremonese, with Mantova currently second in the standings and showing strong recent form with 17 points and an average of 1.6 goals scored per game. Cremonese, struggling near the relegation zone with only 6 points, have scored less frequently and conceded slightly more. Mantova's home advantage and attacking momentum set the stage for a competitive match where they are expected to press their advantage and control the tempo against a defensively vulnerable Cremonese side.

BT4Y best bet

Mantova to Win

  • Mantova ranks 2nd in Serie B with 17 points, showing strong form.
  • Cremonese sits 18th with just 6 points, struggling offensively and defensively.
  • Mantova averages 12.6 shots per game with 4.6 on target, indicating attacking pressure.
  • Key Mantova players like J. Vlahović have high shot volumes and goal threat.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals, suggesting potential for goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns Mantova a 74% chance to win, reflecting their superior league position, recent form, and attacking statistics. Mantova's average of 1.6 goals per game and strong shot metrics, led by players like J. Vlahović, underline their offensive threat. Cremonese's defensive frailties and lower scoring rate further tilt the balance. The of 2.25 offer positive value given the implied chance of 44.4%, making Mantova to win a compelling selection based on both data and tactical context.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Implied Probability from Odds59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Recent Form Points (Mantova)17 points
Strong positive
Recent Form Points (Cremonese)6 points
Negative
Average Shots per Game (Mantova)12.6
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Mantova's strong league position and attacking form make them the clear favorites in this match. Their ability to generate shots and convert chances, combined with Cremonese's struggles, supports backing Mantova to secure the win. The data and tactical outlook align well to suggest a home victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Mantova's attacking firepower and current momentum create a solid foundation for a home win, especially against a Cremonese side that has struggled to find consistency this season.”

Key Data Signals

Mantova to Win evidence

Mantova ranks 2nd in Serie B with 17 points, showing strong form.

Cremonese sits 18th with just 6 points, struggling offensively and defensively.

Mantova averages 12.6 shots per game with 4.6 on target, indicating attacking pressure.

Key Mantova players like J. Vlahović have high shot volumes and goal threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Mantova to Win notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 3.5 goals, indicating a relatively open fixture historically.
  • Both teams' 40% Over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests a moderate tempo and goal-scoring potential, aligning with expectations for an engaging contest with scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Mantova1.6
Avg goals scored
Cremonese0.6
Mantova1
Avg goals conceded
Cremonese1.2
Mantova40%
BTTS rate
Cremonese40%
Mantova40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cremonese40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 50% · edge +4.6 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have a 40% rate for BTTS and Over 2.5 goals, indicating a moderate likelihood of goals from both sides. Mantova's stronger attack and Cremonese's defensive vulnerabilities suggest goals are probable, but the balanced BTTS rate signals some defensive organisation.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Mantova

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 1L
24 Oct 2026A Virtus Entella1-0
17 Oct 2026H Palermo0-2
11 Oct 2026A Catanzaro3-1
20 Sep 2026H Pisa2-2
13 Sep 2026H Sampdoria2-0

Cremonese

LLDDD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Juve Stabia0-1
17 Oct 2026A Pisa1-3
10 Oct 2026A Arezzo0-0
19 Sep 2026H Virtus Entella0-0
12 Sep 2026A Cesena2-2
Market aligned with main pickMantova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Mantova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Mantova's recent form is strong, accumulating 17 points and averaging 1.6 goals per game, while Cremonese has struggled with only 6 points and a lower scoring rate. This contrast in momentum and output supports Mantova's likelihood to win and maintain pressure throughout the match.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMantova to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Mantova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 59%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 59.4% for Mantova to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Mantova have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 3 for Cremonese.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Mantova Over 2.5
40%Cremonese Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches averaged 3.5 goals, indicating a relatively open fixture historically. Both teams' 40% Over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches suggests a moderate tempo and goal-scoring potential, aligning with expectations for an engaging contest with scoring opportunities.

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