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Padova crestPadova
v
Sudtirol crestSudtirol

Serie B | Tue 27 Oct, 19:00

Padova v Sudtirol Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 08:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Padova and Sudtirol meet in a Serie B clash where both sides have shown cautious attacking output this season, reflected in their modest goalscoring rates and similar defensive records. Padova has scored 0.8 goals per game and conceded 1.2, while Sudtirol averages 1.2 goals both for and against. Recent form data shows both teams earning six points in their last five matches, with a shared tendency towards lower-scoring games. This fixture is poised for a tactical battle with neither side likely to take excessive risks, setting the stage for a match with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Padova and Sudtirol both average around 1.0 goals conceded per game, indicating solid defensive setups.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting under 2.5 is more frequent.
  • Sudtirol’s key attacker K. Mixtur averages 1.6 shots on target per 90 minutes but the team’s overall goal threat remains moderate.
  • Padova’s average shots per game (11.2) and Sudtirol’s (10.8) indicate controlled attacking play rather than open, high-scoring matches.
  • Recent form shows both teams have scored fewer than 1.2 goals per game, reinforcing a low-scoring expectation.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% chance, supported by both teams' defensive solidity and modest attacking output. Padova and Sudtirol have similar goals conceded rates (1.2 per game) and relatively low over 2.5 goals occurrence (40%). Sudtirol’s leading attacker K. Mixtur contributes shots but not a high goal volume, indicating limited finishing threat. These factors combined suggest a tactical match with fewer scoring chances and a higher likelihood of a low-scoring outcome. No price warning is necessary as the reflect good value.

Model Probability66% model chance vs 59.9% implied (+6.1 pts)
Strong positive
Goals Conceded1.2 per game both teams
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals Rate40% for both teams
Positive
Key Player ThreatK. Mixtur 0.8 goals, 1.6 SOT/90
Neutral
Recent FormBoth teams scored under 1.2 goals per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This match is likely to be a tightly contested affair with both Padova and Sudtirol showing disciplined defensive performances and moderate attacking intent. The low scoring averages and balanced recent form suggest Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection, reflecting the tactical caution and limited goal threat from both sides.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tactical balance and scoring potential

“Padova and Sudtirol’s similar defensive records and modest attacking numbers point to a low-scoring game where tactical discipline will limit clear chances, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Padova and Sudtirol both average around 1.0 goals conceded per game, indicating solid defensive setups.

Sudtirol’s key attacker K. Mixtur averages 1.6 shots on target per 90 minutes but the team’s overall goal threat remains moderate.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.3 per game, well below the 2.5 threshold.
  • This trend highlights a history of low-scoring encounters between these teams, likely due to tactical caution and defensive discipline.
  • Such a pattern suggests the match will continue the trend of limited goal-scoring opportunities and a slower tempo.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Padova0.8
Avg goals scored
Sudtirol1.2
Padova1.2
Avg goals conceded
Sudtirol1.2
Padova40%
BTTS rate
Sudtirol60%
Padova40%
Over 2.5 goals
Sudtirol40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 60% · edge +6.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Both Padova and Sudtirol have low scoring rates and a 40% over 2.5 goals match frequency, suggesting many games finish with two or fewer goals. The teams’ defensive consistency and limited attacking firepower reduce the chance of both teams scoring multiple times, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 71% vs implied 62% · edge +9.4 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Sudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3
Check odds @ 3
Sudtirol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Padova to WinBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Padova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 59.9% implied by the current price (+6.1 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Padova and 40% for Sudtirol, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Padova

WLLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 4L
24 Oct 2026A Avellino1-0
17 Oct 2026H Virtus Entella1-2
11 Oct 2026H Carrarese0-2
19 Sep 2026A Palermo1-2
12 Sep 2026H Ascoli1-0

Sudtirol

DLDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 1L
24 Oct 2026H Sampdoria1-1
18 Oct 2026A Juve Stabia0-3
10 Oct 2026H Ascoli0-0
20 Sep 2026A Arezzo4-1
12 Sep 2026H Modena1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 65% · edge +7.7 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Sudtirol to WinBet365 guide price · model 44%
3
Check odds @ 3
Sudtirol Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Padova to WinBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Padova Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form data shows both teams have earned six points in their last five matches, with Padova scoring 0.8 goals and Sudtirol 1.2 goals per game. Both sides have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency towards tighter, lower-scoring games. This recent output supports the likelihood of an Under 2.5 Goals outcome in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Padova Over 2.5
40%Sudtirol Over 2.5
1.3H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 1.3 per game, well below the 2.5 threshold. This trend highlights a history of low-scoring encounters between these teams, likely due to tactical caution and defensive discipline. Such a pattern suggests the match will continue the trend of limited goal-scoring opportunities and a slower tempo.

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