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AZ Picerno crestAZ Picerno
v
Salernitana crestSalernitana

Serie C - Girone C | Mon 26 Oct, 19:30

AZ Picerno v Salernitana Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 07:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Salernitana visits AZ Picerno in a Serie C - Girone C clash where both teams have shown mixed recent form but Salernitana holds a slight edge with 8 points from recent matches compared to AZ Picerno's 3. Salernitana's defense has been more resilient, conceding fewer goals, while AZ Picerno has struggled defensively, conceding twice as many. The fixture carries importance for both sides aiming to climb the mid-table standings, with Salernitana currently 10th and AZ Picerno 12th. Tactical discipline and defensive solidity could be decisive in this closely matched contest.

BT4Y best bet

Salernitana to Win

  • Salernitana has earned 8 points recently versus AZ Picerno's 3, showing better form.
  • Salernitana concedes fewer goals on average (1) compared to AZ Picerno (2), indicating defensive strength.
  • Both teams average 1.2 goals scored per game, suggesting balanced attacking potential.
  • AZ Picerno's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Salernitana's 60%, hinting at more open games for the home side.
  • Salernitana sits higher in the standings (10th) with 14 points, slightly ahead of AZ Picerno (12th, 12 points).

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Salernitana to win with a 67% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record. Despite both teams scoring at similar rates, Salernitana's ability to concede fewer goals and accumulate more points recently underpins this . The at 2.05 offer positive value given the implied chance is only 48.8%. This suggests the market underestimates Salernitana's chances, making the selection a strong football and statistical case. No data limitations affect this pick, and the defensive edge is key in this mid-table clash.

Recent formSalernitana 8 points vs AZ Picerno 3 points
Strong positive
Defensive recordSalernitana concedes 1 goal per game vs AZ Picerno 2
Strong positive
Goal scoringBoth teams average 1.2 goals per game
Neutral
Market value edge62.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Salernitana's recent form and tighter defensive record make them the favored side to secure victory in this Serie C fixture. Their ability to limit goals conceded contrasts with AZ Picerno's defensive vulnerabilities, providing a tactical and statistical foundation for the win. Salernitana's position just above AZ Picerno in the standings adds motivation to maintain momentum and capitalize on this opportunity.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Salernitana's defensive discipline and recent points accumulation give them a clear edge in this matchup, making their win a logical outcome given the balance of form and tactical control.”

Key Data Signals

Salernitana to Win evidence

Salernitana has earned 8 points recently versus AZ Picerno's 3, showing better form.

Salernitana concedes fewer goals on average (1) compared to AZ Picerno (2), indicating defensive strength.

Both teams average 1.2 goals scored per game, suggesting balanced attacking potential.

AZ Picerno's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) contrasts with Salernitana's 60%, hinting at more open games for the home side.

What To Watch In The Data

Salernitana to Win notes

  • In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating moderately open games.
  • AZ Picerno's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) suggests a tendency for more attacking matches, while Salernitana's 60% rate is lower, reflecting a more balanced style.
  • This trend points to a match with potential for goals but also defensive discipline from Salernitana, shaping the tempo and scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AZ Picerno1.2
Avg goals scored
Salernitana1.2
AZ Picerno2
Avg goals conceded
Salernitana1
AZ Picerno80%
BTTS rate
Salernitana60%
AZ Picerno80%
Over 2.5 goals
Salernitana60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +15 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 43%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both teams average 1.2 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring potential. AZ Picerno's 80% over 2.5 goals rate suggests their matches tend to be more open and high scoring, while Salernitana's 60% rate is lower, reflecting a more balanced approach. Both teams have a high BTTS rate for AZ Picerno (80%) and moderate for Salernitana (60%), pointing to a reasonable chance of goals at both ends but with defensive discipline favoring Salernitana.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSalernitana to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Salernitana Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The 62.6% for Salernitana to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Salernitana have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for AZ Picerno.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AZ Picerno

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
18 Oct 2026A Barletta0-1
12 Oct 2026H Cosenza1-2
04 Oct 2026A Potenza2-4
26 Sep 2026H Audace Cerignola2-1
19 Sep 2026A Team Altamura1-2

Salernitana

DDWLW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 5D 2L
17 Oct 2026H Scafatese2-2
11 Oct 2026A Casarano0-0
04 Oct 2026H Bari2-1
26 Sep 2026A Crotone1-2
19 Sep 2026H Giugliano1-0
Market aligned with main pickSalernitana to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Salernitana Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Salernitana's recent accumulation of 8 points compared to AZ Picerno's 3 points highlights a clear momentum advantage. This form difference is reinforced by Salernitana conceding fewer goals, indicating better defensive performances. The recent form data suggests Salernitana enters this match with greater and stability, which is crucial in tight mid-table clashes where small margins decide outcomes.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%AZ Picerno Over 2.5
60%Salernitana Over 2.5
2.33H2H avg goals
In the last three head-to-head meetings, the average goals scored is 2.33, indicating moderately open games. AZ Picerno's high over 2.5 goals rate (80%) suggests a tendency for more attacking matches, while Salernitana's 60% rate is lower, reflecting a more balanced style. This trend points to a match with potential for goals but also defensive discipline from Salernitana, shaping the tempo and scoring chances.

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