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FC Andorra crestFC Andorra
v
Burgos crestBurgos

Segunda División | Mon 26 Oct, 19:30

FC Andorra v Burgos Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 07:29 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Segunda División fixture features Burgos traveling to face FC Andorra, with Burgos holding a stronger league position and recent form. Burgos have accumulated 17 points, sitting 9th, while FC Andorra are 19th with 10 points. Both teams have struggled offensively, each scoring just one goal in their last five matches, but Burgos have conceded fewer goals, indicating a more solid defensive setup. The match presents a tactical challenge for FC Andorra to break down a disciplined Burgos side, who will look to capitalize on their superior form and defensive resilience to secure a valuable away win.

BT4Y best bet

Burgos to Win

  • Burgos sit 9th with 17 points, significantly ahead of 19th-placed FC Andorra with 10 points.
  • Burgos concede only 0.8 goals per game versus FC Andorra's 1.4, showing defensive solidity.
  • Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating moderate scoring potential.
  • Burgos average more shots (12) and shots on target (4.2) per match than FC Andorra (9 shots, 4 on target).
  • Burgos' Álex Forés is a key attacking threat with 0.49 goals per 90 and solid shot volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Burgos to win with a 52.4% chance, reflecting their stronger league standing and defensive record. Despite the implying only a 29.4% chance, the model sees significant value given Burgos' superior shot creation and defensive discipline. The away side's ability to limit goals conceded and generate more shots on target supports the likelihood of a Burgos victory. No data limitations affect , and the price offers a positive edge, making this a compelling selection with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance44.4% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance44.4% model chance vs 29.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive RecordBurgos concede 0.8 goals per game vs 1.4 for FC Andorra
Positive
Shot VolumeBurgos average 12 shots per game vs 9 for FC Andorra
Positive
Recent Form PointsBurgos 9 points vs FC Andorra 7 points in last 5 matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Burgos' superior defensive record and higher league position make them the logical choice to win this match. Their ability to create more shots and maintain discipline should allow them to control the game and capitalize on chances, overcoming FC Andorra's home challenge. The data supports backing Burgos for a confident away victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Burgos' defensive resilience combined with their superior shot creation gives them a clear tactical edge in this fixture, making them a strong candidate for the win despite being away from home.”

Key Data Signals

Burgos to Win evidence

Burgos sit 9th with 17 points, significantly ahead of 19th-placed FC Andorra with 10 points.

Burgos concede only 0.8 goals per game versus FC Andorra's 1.4, showing defensive solidity.

Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating moderate scoring potential.

Burgos average more shots (12) and shots on target (4.2) per match than FC Andorra (9 shots, 4 on target).

What To Watch In The Data

Burgos to Win notes

  • The last seven head-to-head matches average 1.57 goals per game, indicating generally low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend suggests a tactical battle with limited goal opportunities, reinforcing the likelihood of a close match where defensive discipline will be crucial.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

FC Andorra1
Avg goals scored
Burgos1
FC Andorra1.4
Avg goals conceded
Burgos0.8
FC Andorra40%
BTTS rate
Burgos40%
FC Andorra40%
Over 2.5 goals
Burgos40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 62% vs implied 57% · edge +5 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Both teams have a modest 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS, reflecting a tendency toward low-scoring matches. Burgos' stronger defense limits goals conceded, while FC Andorra's attack struggles to produce, suggesting a tight game with limited goal-scoring but a likely Burgos win.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

FC Andorra

LWDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 6L
18 Oct 2026A Girona0-2
11 Oct 2026H Castellón1-0
04 Oct 2026A Sabadell0-0
26 Sep 2026A Granada CF3-2
19 Sep 2026H Sporting Gijon1-3

Burgos

WLLWW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
18 Oct 2026H Sabadell1-0
12 Oct 2026H Granada CF0-1
03 Oct 2026A Almeria1-2
27 Sep 2026H Eldense1-0
20 Sep 2026A Las Palmas2-1
Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Burgos have collected 9 points in their last five matches compared to FC Andorra's 7, showing slightly better momentum. Both teams scored only one goal in this period, but Burgos' tighter defense conceding 0.8 goals per game versus 1.4 for FC Andorra underlines their form advantage in preventing goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBurgos to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Burgos Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 44.4% for Burgos to Win sits against roughly 29.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Burgos have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 7 for FC Andorra.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%FC Andorra Over 2.5
40%Burgos Over 2.5
1.57H2H avg goals
The last seven head-to-head matches average 1.57 goals per game, indicating generally low-scoring encounters. This trend suggests a tactical battle with limited goal opportunities, reinforcing the likelihood of a close match where defensive discipline will be crucial.

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