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AS Roma crestAS Roma
v
Cagliari crestCagliari

Serie A | Tue 27 Oct, 19:45

AS Roma v Cagliari Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:43 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AS Roma hosts Cagliari in a Serie A clash where both teams have shown a tendency towards cautious play and low-scoring outcomes. Roma, third in the league, have averaged 1.8 goals per game but maintain a disciplined defense conceding just one goal per match. Cagliari, sitting ninth, struggle offensively with 0.8 goals per game and a leaky defense allowing 1.6 goals on average. Recent form data indicates both sides have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, suggesting a balanced contest with limited goal-scoring chances. Tactical setups likely prioritize defensive solidity, making a low-scoring game probable.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate this season, indicating moderate scoring frequency.
  • AS Roma averages 16 shots per game but converts fewer goals, showing inefficiency in finishing.
  • Cagliari’s attack is limited, averaging only 6.8 shots per game with low goal output.
  • Defensive discipline is notable with Roma conceding 1 goal per game and Cagliari 1.6, supporting fewer goals.
  • Head-to-head matches average 2.7 goals, but recent form and stats favor fewer goals this time.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 56.8% chance, reflecting both teams' moderate scoring and defensive tendencies. Roma’s solid defense and Cagliari’s limited attack reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The 40% over 2.5 goals rate for both sides suggests that most matches stay under this threshold. The at 2.2 offer positive value given the implied chance of 45.5%. No data limitations affect , and the model’s 69% level supports a standard stake.

Model Chance56.8% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+11.3 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance56.8% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+11.3 pts)
Positive
Value Edge56.8% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+11.3 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence Level69%
Positive
Data QualityComplete data for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a solid pick given Roma’s defensive discipline and Cagliari’s limited offensive threat. Roma’s recent form shows controlled attacking output, while Cagliari struggles to create clear chances. The data supports a match where defensive organization will limit scoring opportunities, making a low total goals outcome likely.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match tactical and defensive analysis

“This fixture’s tactical balance and defensive strengths suggest a match where goals will be at a premium, making Under 2.5 Goals a sensible selection.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

AS Roma averages 16 shots per game but converts fewer goals, showing inefficiency in finishing.

Cagliari’s attack is limited, averaging only 6.8 shots per game with low goal output.

Defensive discipline is notable with Roma conceding 1 goal per game and Cagliari 1.6, supporting fewer goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, slightly above the Under 2.5 threshold.
  • However, recent tactical trends and defensive improvements by both teams suggest a slower tempo and fewer scoring chances in this fixture, making Over 2.5 Goals less likely despite historical averages.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AS Roma1.8
Avg goals scored
Cagliari0.8
AS Roma1
Avg goals conceded
Cagliari1.6
AS Roma40%
BTTS rate
Cagliari40%
AS Roma40%
Over 2.5 goals
Cagliari40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 46% · edge +11.3 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate and BTTS rate, indicating moderate attacking output but no strong inclination for high-scoring games. Roma’s defense concedes fewer goals than Cagliari, whose attack is less potent. This balance suggests a game with limited goal-scoring chances and a moderate likelihood of both teams scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionCagliari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.65
Check odds @ 4.65
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Cagliari to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
AS Roma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
The 56.8% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+11.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for AS Roma and 40% for Cagliari, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AS Roma

DWDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 0L
24 Oct 2026A Napoli3-3
17 Oct 2026H Genoa2-0
11 Oct 2026A Como0-0
19 Sep 2026H Inter2-2
14 Sep 2026A Torino2-0

Cagliari

LLDWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 3L
24 Oct 2026H Bologna0-2
19 Oct 2026A Monza0-4
11 Oct 2026H Juventus1-1
19 Sep 2026A Udinese1-0
12 Sep 2026A Atalanta2-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
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Cagliari Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 37%
4.65
Check odds @ 4.65
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Cagliari to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
9.5
Check odds @ 9.5
AS Roma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
AS Roma to WinBetUK guide price · model 62%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Roma’s recent matches show a steady goal output averaging 1.8 goals per game, while Cagliari’s form is more defensive with only 0.8 goals scored per game. Both teams have a 40% rate of over 2.5 goals in recent fixtures, supporting a trend towards lower-scoring games. This recent form data aligns well with the Under 2.5 Goals pick.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%AS Roma Over 2.5
40%Cagliari Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.7, slightly above the Under 2.5 threshold. However, recent tactical trends and defensive improvements by both teams suggest a slower tempo and fewer scoring chances in this fixture, making Over 2.5 Goals less likely despite historical averages.

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