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VfL Bochum crestVfL Bochum
v
FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05

DFB Pokal | Tue 27 Oct, 17:00

VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05 Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 08:44 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This DFB Pokal clash between VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05 promises an open and attacking encounter. Both teams have shown a strong tendency for high-scoring games recently, with Bochum scoring 2 goals and conceding just 1 in their last matches, while Mainz has been prolific offensively, netting 9 goals without conceding. Bochum's perfect over 2.5 goals rate and Mainz's aggressive shot volume suggest a fast-paced game with multiple goal-scoring opportunities. Tactical openness and offensive intent from both sides set the stage for a goal-laden fixture on October 27th.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Both teams have a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently.
  • Mainz averages 30 shots and 12 shots on target per game, indicating heavy offensive pressure.
  • Bochum maintains a solid defense but participates in high-scoring games, scoring 2 and conceding 1 recently.
  • The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals per match supports a high-scoring trend.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance for over 3.5 goals, well above the 42% implied by current , indicating positive value. Both teams exhibit aggressive attacking metrics: Mainz's exceptional shot volume and Bochum's consistent involvement in high-scoring games underpin the likelihood of multiple goals. The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals further supports this. No data limitations affect , and the price reflects a solid opportunity for a standard stake.

Model Chance57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance57% model chance vs 42% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate100% both teams
Strong positive
Shot Volume (Mainz)30 avg shots, 12 on target
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.4 goals per match
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with Mainz's potent attack and Bochum's involvement in high-scoring matches driving the tempo. The data points to a lively encounter with multiple goals, making over 3.5 goals a compelling choice given the attacking profiles and recent form of both sides.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“This fixture features two teams with aggressive offensive patterns and a history of high-scoring games, making over 3.5 goals a logical expectation from a tactical and statistical perspective.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals recently.

Mainz averages 30 shots and 12 shots on target per game, indicating heavy offensive pressure.

Bochum maintains a solid defense but participates in high-scoring games, scoring 2 and conceding 1 recently.

The head-to-head average of 3.4 goals per match supports a high-scoring trend.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last ten meetings between Bochum and Mainz have averaged 3.4 goals per match, indicating a history of open, high-scoring games.
  • This trend, combined with recent form over the last five matches for both teams, supports expectations of a fast tempo and multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

VfL Bochum2
Avg goals scored
FSV Mainz 059
VfL Bochum1
Avg goals conceded
FSV Mainz 050
VfL Bochum100%
BTTS rate
FSV Mainz 050%
VfL Bochum100%
Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Bochum and Mainz show contrasting BTTS trends: Bochum's matches always see both teams scoring, while Mainz's recent games have been clean sheets. However, the combined offensive firepower and past encounters averaging 3.4 goals suggest multiple scoring events are likely, favoring a high-goal outcome.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 78% vs implied 64% · edge +14.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
VfL Bochum Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
FSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
VfL Bochum to WinBetfred guide price · model 21%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
The 57% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 100% for VfL Bochum and 100% for FSV Mainz 05, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

VfL Bochum

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
23 Aug 2026A SpVgg Greuther Fürth2-1

FSV Mainz 05

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
23 Aug 2026A Krieschow9-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 83% · edge -3.9 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Load more odds for this section
VfL Bochum Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
FSV Mainz 05 to WinBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
FSV Mainz 05 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
VfL Bochum to WinBetfred guide price · model 21%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Both teams have consistently featured in matches with over 2.5 goals recently, maintaining a 100% rate. Bochum's recent games have seen 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded, while Mainz's offense has been prolific with 9 goals scored and none conceded, underscoring the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%VfL Bochum Over 2.5
100%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5
3.4H2H avg goals
The last ten meetings between Bochum and Mainz have averaged 3.4 goals per match, indicating a history of open, high-scoring games. This trend, combined with recent form over the last five matches for both teams, supports expectations of a fast tempo and multiple goals.

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