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Rizespor crestRizespor
v
Trabzonspor crestTrabzonspor

Süper Lig | Mon 26 Oct, 16:00

Rizespor v Trabzonspor Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 07:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

The Black Sea derby between Rizespor and Trabzonspor presents a clash of contrasting fortunes. Rizespor struggles at home with three consecutive defeats and defensive absences, while Trabzonspor arrives in strong form, chasing a fourth straight league win. Trabzonspor's attack, led by Mohamed Salah, has been prolific, averaging two goals per match, contrasting with Rizespor's difficulty converting possession into goals. Despite Trabzonspor's inconsistent away record, their momentum and tactical ability to exploit transitions position them as favorites in this high-stakes regional rivalry.

BT4Y match pick

Trabzonspor Asian Handicap -0.5

  • Trabzonspor seeks fourth consecutive league win with strong attacking form.
  • Rizespor winless at home with six goals conceded in three matches.
  • Mohamed Salah leads league scoring with eight goals, key to Trabzonspor's attack.
  • Trabzonspor averages 6.4 shots on target per match, showing offensive threat.
  • Rizespor's possession control struggles to translate into goals, highlighting inefficiency.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model supports Trabzonspor to win with a -0.5 handicap based on their superior attacking output and Rizespor's defensive vulnerabilities. Trabzonspor's average of two goals per game and Mohamed Salah's scoring prowess contrast with Rizespor's failure to score at home despite high possession. The visitors' ability to win without dominating possession, exploiting transitions effectively, further strengthens this pick. The price is slightly short, so cautious staking is advised, but the football read remains compelling given current form and tactical matchups.

Attacking StrengthTrabzonspor averages 2 goals and 6.4 shots on target per match
Strong positive
Defensive WeaknessRizespor conceded 6 goals in 3 home matches without scoring
Strong positive
Key Player ImpactMohamed Salah leads league with 8 goals, central to attack
Strong positive
Possession vs EfficiencyRizespor controls possession but struggles to convert chances
Positive
Away Form RiskTrabzonspor has poor recent away record but improving
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Trabzonspor's attacking momentum and tactical discipline make them strong favorites to secure an outright win. Their ability to capitalize on Rizespor's defensive frailties, combined with Mohamed Salah's goal threat, provides a solid foundation for backing the visitors with a -0.5 handicap. Rizespor's home struggles and missing defenders further tilt the balance toward Trabzonspor in this derby encounter.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and form advantage

“Trabzonspor's blend of clinical finishing and transition efficiency should overcome Rizespor's possession without penetration, making the -0.5 handicap a tactically sound selection in this derby.”

Key Data Signals

Trabzonspor Asian Handicap -0.5 evidence

Trabzonspor seeks fourth consecutive league win with strong attacking form.

Rizespor winless at home with six goals conceded in three matches.

Mohamed Salah leads league scoring with eight goals, key to Trabzonspor's attack.

Trabzonspor averages 6.4 shots on target per match, showing offensive threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Trabzonspor Asian Handicap -0.5 notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a relatively open fixture historically.
  • Both teams have shown a 60% rate for matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a trend toward higher scoring games.
  • This trend aligns with Trabzonspor's attacking style and Rizespor's defensive vulnerabilities, making over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome in this matchup.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Rizespor1
Avg goals scored
Trabzonspor2.8
Rizespor1.6
Avg goals conceded
Trabzonspor0.2
Rizespor40%
BTTS rate
Trabzonspor0%
Rizespor60%
Over 2.5 goals
Trabzonspor60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Both teams scoring appears less likely given Trabzonspor's strong defensive record and Rizespor's home scoring drought. Rizespor's 40% BTTS rate contrasts with Trabzonspor's 0%, indicating the visitors often keep clean sheets. This suggests a low probability for both teams to score, aligning with Trabzonspor's defensive solidity and Rizespor's inefficiency in front of goal.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickTrabzonspor to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Trabzonspor Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 69%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The 52.3% for Trabzonspor Asian Handicap -0.5 sits against roughly 52.4% implied by the current price (-0.1 pts). Trabzonspor's strong attack contrasts with Rizespor's home defensive struggles.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Rizespor

LLDWL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 4L
16 Oct 2026A Çorum FK1-2
10 Oct 2026H Fenerbahçe0-3
20 Sep 2026A Göztepe2-2
12 Sep 2026A Eyüpspor2-0
07 Sep 2026H Alanyaspor0-1

Trabzonspor

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 2L
19 Oct 2026H Beşiktaş2-0
10 Oct 2026A Samsunspor3-0
19 Sep 2026H Galatasaray4-0
12 Sep 2026A Konyaspor0-1
06 Sep 2026H Gençlerbirliği S.K.5-0
Market aligned with main pickTrabzonspor to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Trabzonspor Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Trabzonspor's recent form is strong, accumulating 12 points in their last matches with an average of 2.8 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded per game, reflecting both offensive potency and defensive resilience. Conversely, Rizespor has managed only 4 points, scoring 1 goal but conceding 1.6 on average, highlighting their struggles especially at home, which underpins Trabzonspor's favored status in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Rizespor Over 2.5
60%Trabzonspor Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a relatively open fixture historically. Both teams have shown a 60% rate for matches finishing over 2.5 goals this season, suggesting a trend toward higher scoring games. This trend aligns with Trabzonspor's attacking style and Rizespor's defensive vulnerabilities, making over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome in this matchup.

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