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AIK Stockholm crestAIK Stockholm
v
IF Elfsborg crestIF Elfsborg

Allsvenskan | Tue 27 Oct, 18:00

AIK Stockholm v IF Elfsborg Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Allsvenskan clash features IF Elfsborg visiting AIK Stockholm in a fixture where Elfsborg holds a slight edge in the league standings and recent form. Elfsborg has accumulated 11 points in their last five matches compared to AIK Stockholm's 5, showcasing better momentum. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but Elfsborg's defensive solidity and consistent away performances suggest they can challenge strongly here. The match carries significance for league positioning, with Elfsborg aiming to consolidate their top-five status while AIK Stockholm seeks to improve their mid-table standing.

BT4Y best bet

IF Elfsborg to Win

  • IF Elfsborg has earned 11 points in last five matches versus AIK Stockholm's 5
  • Elfsborg concedes only 0.6 goals per game, showing defensive strength
  • AIK Stockholm scores more but also concedes heavily, with 2.4 goals against per game
  • Head-to-head average goals are 3.3, indicating potential for open play
  • Elfsborg ranks higher in the league table, adding competitive edge

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors IF Elfsborg to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record. Elfsborg concedes just 0.6 goals per game compared to AIK Stockholm's 2.4, highlighting defensive resilience that can frustrate AIK's attack. Despite AIK's higher shot volume, Elfsborg's efficiency and league position support the away win. The price offers positive value with a 25.6% edge, making Elfsborg a compelling choice. No data limitations affect , and the pick aligns well with tactical and statistical signals.

Recent form pointsElfsborg 11 vs AIK 5
Strong positive
Defensive recordElfsborg concedes 0.6 goals/game
Strong positive
Model win probability70%
Strong positive
Price value edge59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
AIK's goals conceded2.4 goals/game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

IF Elfsborg's recent form and defensive discipline make them the stronger side in this matchup. Their ability to limit goals conceded contrasts with AIK Stockholm's defensive vulnerabilities, giving Elfsborg a tactical and statistical advantage likely to secure a valuable away win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and defensive strength

“Elfsborg's solid defensive structure and consistent away performances give them a clear edge over AIK Stockholm, whose defensive frailties could be exploited in this crucial league encounter.”

Key Data Signals

IF Elfsborg to Win evidence

IF Elfsborg has earned 11 points in last five matches versus AIK Stockholm's 5

Elfsborg concedes only 0.6 goals per game, showing defensive strength

AIK Stockholm scores more but also concedes heavily, with 2.4 goals against per game

Head-to-head average goals are 3.3, indicating potential for open play

What To Watch In The Data

IF Elfsborg to Win notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters.
  • This trend suggests that while Elfsborg may focus on defense, the match could still see multiple goals due to AIK's attacking tendencies and open play style, supporting an expectation of a lively game.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AIK Stockholm2.2
Avg goals scored
IF Elfsborg1.8
AIK Stockholm2.4
Avg goals conceded
IF Elfsborg0.6
AIK Stockholm100%
BTTS rate
IF Elfsborg40%
AIK Stockholm80%
Over 2.5 goals
IF Elfsborg60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 87%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
The fixture shows contrasting attacking and defensive profiles. AIK Stockholm has an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals and 100% BTTS, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Elfsborg's lower BTTS rate (40%) and more conservative defense suggest a tactical battle where Elfsborg aims to contain AIK's attack, possibly limiting goals despite AIK's offensive intent.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickIF Elfsborg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
IF Elfsborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 59.4% for IF Elfsborg to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). IF Elfsborg have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 5 for AIK Stockholm.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AIK Stockholm

WDLLD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
24 Oct 2026A Sirius2-1
17 Oct 2026H IFK Goteborg2-2
10 Oct 2026H IF Brommapojkarna5-6
20 Sep 2026A Halmstad1-2
16 Sep 2026H Mjallby AIF1-1

IF Elfsborg

DDWWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
23 Oct 2026H Malmo FF0-0
18 Oct 2026A Sirius2-2
12 Oct 2026H Halmstad4-0
20 Sep 2026A Djurgardens IF2-1
13 Sep 2026H Kalmar FF1-0
Market aligned with main pickIF Elfsborg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
IF Elfsborg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Elfsborg's recent form is superior, securing 11 points in their last five matches compared to AIK Stockholm's 5. This momentum is underpinned by a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, which contrasts with AIK's 2.4 goals conceded. The form data indicates Elfsborg's greater consistency and resilience heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%AIK Stockholm Over 2.5
60%IF Elfsborg Over 2.5
3.3H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively high-scoring encounters. This trend suggests that while Elfsborg may focus on defense, the match could still see multiple goals due to AIK's attacking tendencies and open play style, supporting an expectation of a lively game.

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