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Santa Clara crestSanta Clara
v
Benfica crestBenfica

Primeira Liga | Mon 26 Oct, 18:45

Santa Clara v Benfica Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 16:09 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Santa Clara face a critical home challenge against Benfica, who arrive on an impressive 36-match unbeaten league run. Santa Clara struggle offensively, having scored just 16 goals in 21 matches and enduring a run of four consecutive defeats. Benfica's tactical approach under José Mourinho emphasizes possession control and a high press, aiming to suffocate Santa Clara's attack and capitalize on transition threats. With Benfica's clinical finisher Vangelis Pavlidis in form and a robust defensive record, this fixture sets up as a test of Santa Clara's resilience against a dominant, well-structured opponent.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Benfica to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 73%, above the 51% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Benfica are unbeaten in their last 36 Primeira Liga matches, showing consistent control.
  • Santa Clara have scored only 16 goals in 21 league games, highlighting offensive struggles.
  • Benfica have kept 21 clean sheets this season, including the last three away visits to Santa Clara.
  • Vangelis Pavlidis leads Benfica with 19 league goals, underpinning their attacking threat.
Price warning

Benfica to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 73% while the model sits nearer 51% (-21.8 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 9.5 Corners shows a +15 pts edge at 2.02.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model sees Benfica as a strong favorite with a 50.7% chance to win, slightly above the implied market probability of 50%. Benfica's unbeaten streak and defensive solidity, combined with Santa Clara's poor scoring record and recent defeats, support this edge. The tactical setup favors Benfica's control and finishing ability, making a win likely. No price warning is necessary as the fairly reflect the model's . The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing the reliability of this prediction.

Benfica's Unbeaten Streak36 matches
Strong positive
Santa Clara's Goal Scoring16 goals in 21 matches
Negative
Benfica's Defensive Record21 clean sheets
Strong positive
Model Probability vs Market50.7% model chance vs 72.5% implied (-21.8 pts)
Positive
Data QualityComplete for both teams
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Benfica's tactical discipline and clinical finishing make them the clear choice to win this match. Their unbeaten run and defensive strength contrast with Santa Clara's offensive struggles and recent poor form, suggesting Benfica will control the game and secure victory.

Main risk

Petit is still in the early days of his reign, but the first outing ended with a 1–0 loss to Estrela da Amadora, and the mood is clear: urgency, anxiety, and a.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Benfica's blend of possession control and lethal finishing, led by Pavlidis, should overwhelm Santa Clara's limited attacking threat and fragile defense, making their win highly probable.”

Key Data Signals

Benfica to Win evidence

Benfica are unbeaten in their last 36 Primeira Liga matches, showing consistent control.

Santa Clara have scored only 16 goals in 21 league games, highlighting offensive struggles.

Benfica have kept 21 clean sheets this season, including the last three away visits to Santa Clara.

Vangelis Pavlidis leads Benfica with 19 league goals, underpinning their attacking threat.

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a moderately open fixture historically.
  • However, current form and defensive trends suggest a more controlled game with fewer goals, aligning with the under 3.5 goals expectation for this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santa Clara1.6
Avg goals scored
Benfica2.6
Santa Clara0.4
Avg goals conceded
Benfica0.8
Santa Clara40%
BTTS rate
Benfica40%
Santa Clara40%
Over 2.5 goals
Benfica80%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 54% · edge +9.4 pts
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 82%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 41%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Santa Clara's low scoring rate and Benfica's strong defensive record suggest a low-scoring game with a high likelihood of no goals for Santa Clara. The under 3.5 goals and BTTS No context fits the tactical narrative of Benfica controlling possession and limiting clear chances for the hosts.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 73% · edge -21.8 pts
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 72%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Benfica Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
The 50.7% for Benfica to Win sits against roughly 72.5% implied by the current price (-21.8 pts). Benfica have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 11 for Santa Clara. Benfica have kept clean sheets in their last three away visits to this ground.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santa Clara

WDWWD
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 0L
10 Oct 2026A Casa Pia1-0
20 Sep 2026H SC Braga0-0
13 Sep 2026A Arouca2-1
06 Sep 2026H Rio Ave4-0
29 Aug 2026A Alverca1-1

Benfica

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 1L
11 Oct 2026H Vitória SC2-0
20 Sep 2026A FC Porto1-3
13 Sep 2026H GIL Vicente3-1
09 Sep 2026A Moreirense4-0
05 Sep 2026A Maritimo3-0
Market aligned with main pickBenfica to WinBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 73% · edge -21.8 pts
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 78%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Benfica Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Benfica's recent form shows consistent point accumulation and goal scoring, contrasting with Santa Clara's four consecutive league defeats and low goal output. This form disparity underlines Benfica's momentum and advantage heading into the match.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Santa Clara Over 2.5
80%Benfica Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game is 3.1, indicating a moderately open fixture historically. However, current form and defensive trends suggest a more controlled game with fewer goals, aligning with the under 3.5 goals expectation for this match.

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