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AFC Hornchurch crestAFC Hornchurch
v
Yeovil Town crestYeovil Town

National League | Tue 27 Oct, 19:45

AFC Hornchurch v Yeovil Town Stats

Data last updated: Mon 26 Oct 2026, 10:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League fixture sees Yeovil Town travel to face AFC Hornchurch, with Yeovil currently sitting 6th in the table and Hornchurch 10th. Yeovil have shown solid defensive form conceding just 0.6 goals per game recently, while Hornchurch have struggled to score, netting only one goal in their last matches. Yeovil's recent momentum and stronger league position set the stage for a competitive match where Yeovil's tactical discipline and defensive solidity could prove decisive away from home.

BT4Y best bet

Yeovil Town to Win

  • Yeovil Town ranks 6th with 25 points, ahead of AFC Hornchurch in 10th with 21 points.
  • Yeovil concedes only 0.6 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive form.
  • AFC Hornchurch has scored just 1 goal in recent matches, showing attacking struggles.
  • Yeovil's recent form yields 10 points compared to Hornchurch's 6, suggesting better momentum.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Yeovil Town to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive record. The at 2.25 offer positive value given Yeovil's consistent ability to limit goals conceded and capitalize on Hornchurch's scoring difficulties. While the data quality is solid, the model notes that Yeovil's defensive discipline and higher league standing underpin this confident selection. This pick is a strong value play with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormYeovil concedes 0.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Hornchurch Scoring Issues1 goal in recent matches
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Yeovil Town's recent defensive solidity and superior league position make them a strong candidate for victory in this National League clash. Their ability to restrict goals and maintain form contrasts with AFC Hornchurch's scoring struggles, providing a tactical and statistical edge that supports backing Yeovil to win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage

“Yeovil's disciplined defense and consistent form away from home create a compelling case for their victory, especially against a Hornchurch side that has struggled to find the net recently.”

Key Data Signals

Yeovil Town to Win evidence

Yeovil Town ranks 6th with 25 points, ahead of AFC Hornchurch in 10th with 21 points.

Yeovil concedes only 0.6 goals per game recently, indicating strong defensive form.

AFC Hornchurch has scored just 1 goal in recent matches, showing attacking struggles.

Yeovil's recent form yields 10 points compared to Hornchurch's 6, suggesting better momentum.

What To Watch In The Data

Yeovil Town to Win notes

  • Recent match trends show a moderate rate of Over 2.5 Goals, with AFC Hornchurch having an 80% rate and Yeovil Town 60%.
  • However, Yeovil's strong defensive record tempers the likelihood of a high-scoring game.
  • The trend suggests a balanced tempo with potential for goals but likely controlled by Yeovil's defensive discipline.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AFC Hornchurch1
Avg goals scored
Yeovil Town3
AFC Hornchurch1.8
Avg goals conceded
Yeovil Town0.6
AFC Hornchurch40%
BTTS rate
Yeovil Town40%
AFC Hornchurch80%
Over 2.5 goals
Yeovil Town60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 80% · edge +5.5 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
Recent trends show Yeovil Town concedes very few goals, averaging 0.6 per game, while AFC Hornchurch has struggled offensively with just one goal in recent matches. Both teams have a 40% BTTS rate, indicating a moderate likelihood of clean sheets or low-scoring games. This suggests a match leaning towards fewer goals, favoring Yeovil's defensive strengths.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickYeovil Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Yeovil Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 59.4% for Yeovil Town to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Yeovil Town have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 6 for AFC Hornchurch.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AFC Hornchurch

LWLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 6L
24 Oct 2026A Hartlepool1-2
10 Oct 2026H Eastleigh2-0
03 Oct 2026A Harrogate Town0-3
29 Sep 2026H Aldershot Town2-1
26 Sep 2026A Altrincham0-3

Yeovil Town

LWWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
24 Oct 2026H Altrincham1-2
10 Oct 2026A Wealdstone6-0
03 Oct 2026H Boston United6-0
29 Sep 2026H Worthing1-1
26 Sep 2026A Kidderminster Harriers1-0
Market aligned with main pickYeovil Town to WinBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Yeovil Town Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Yeovil Town's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points compared to AFC Hornchurch's 6 in the same period. Yeovil's defense has been particularly effective, conceding only 0.6 goals per game, while Hornchurch has struggled to score, managing just one goal. This momentum difference supports Yeovil's chances of securing a win in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%AFC Hornchurch Over 2.5
60%Yeovil Town Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent match trends show a moderate rate of Over 2.5 Goals, with AFC Hornchurch having an 80% rate and Yeovil Town 60%. However, Yeovil's strong defensive record tempers the likelihood of a high-scoring game. The trend suggests a balanced tempo with potential for goals but likely controlled by Yeovil's defensive discipline.

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