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Crotone crestCrotone
v
Casarano crestCasarano

Serie C - Girone C | Mon 26 Oct, 19:30

Crotone v Casarano Stats

Data last updated: Sun 25 Oct 2026, 07:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Crotone faces Casarano in a Serie C - Girone C clash where Crotone is eager to improve on a challenging start to the season, currently sitting 20th with just one point. Casarano, positioned 17th with 11 points, has shown more resilience but has struggled offensively. Crotone's recent form shows a higher scoring rate and a strong tendency for matches to exceed 2.5 goals, indicating potential attacking opportunities. This fixture offers Crotone a chance to capitalize on home advantage and tactical adjustments to secure a vital win.

BT4Y best bet

Crotone to Win

  • Crotone has a model-implied 62.7% chance to win, with positive value at of 2.05.
  • Recent form favors Crotone with 5 points gained and 1.4 goals scored per game versus Casarano's 2 points and 0.6 goals.
  • Crotone's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting open play and scoring chances.
  • Head-to-head history shows an average of 2.5 goals per match, supporting a competitive encounter.
  • Crotone's defensive record is slightly better, conceding 1.6 goals per game compared to Casarano's 1.8.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Crotone to win due to their superior recent form, higher scoring rate, and positive value at current . Crotone's matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, indicating an attacking style that could exploit Casarano's defensive vulnerabilities. Despite a low league position, Crotone's home advantage and tactical adjustments provide a solid foundation for victory. The data quality is sufficient to support this pick confidently without major reservations.

Recent formCrotone has 5 points from recent matches versus Casarano's 2
Positive
Goal scoringCrotone averages 1.4 goals per game, Casarano 0.6
Positive
Over 2.5 goals rateCrotone's matches go over 2.5 goals 80% of the time
Positive
Model chance vs implied chance62.7% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+13.9 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Crotone's attacking potential and recent scoring form make them the likely winners in this fixture. Their ability to generate chances and capitalize on home advantage aligns with the data showing positive value and higher goal involvement compared to Casarano. This combination of tactical opportunity and statistical backing supports backing Crotone to win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Crotone's offensive momentum and home conditions create a compelling case for victory despite their league position. Their ability to break down Casarano's defense should be decisive in this contest.”

Key Data Signals

Crotone to Win evidence

Crotone has a model-implied 62.7% chance to win, with positive value at of 2.05.

Recent form favors Crotone with 5 points gained and 1.4 goals scored per game versus Casarano's 2 points and 0.6 goals.

Crotone's matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, suggesting open play and scoring chances.

Head-to-head history shows an average of 2.5 goals per match, supporting a competitive encounter.

What To Watch In The Data

Crotone to Win notes

  • The last two head-to-head matches averaged 2.5 goals, aligning with Crotone's high over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • This trend indicates a fixture prone to multiple goals, driven by open play and attacking intent from Crotone, making goal markets relevant.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Crotone1.4
Avg goals scored
Casarano0.6
Crotone1.6
Avg goals conceded
Casarano1.8
Crotone80%
BTTS rate
Casarano40%
Crotone80%
Over 2.5 goals
Casarano20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Crotone's matches have an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open and attacking games. Casarano's lower scoring and defensive struggles suggest this fixture could see multiple goals, with BTTS less likely given Casarano's limited offensive output.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCrotone to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 49% · edge +13.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Crotone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 62.7% for Crotone to Win sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+13.9 pts). Crotone have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 2 for Casarano.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Crotone

DLLWD
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
18 Oct 2026A Bari0-0
10 Oct 2026H Audace Cerignola2-3
03 Oct 2026A Catania1-2
26 Sep 2026H Salernitana2-1
20 Sep 2026A SS Monopoli2-2

Casarano

LDLLD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
18 Oct 2026A Cavese2-5
11 Oct 2026H Salernitana0-0
03 Oct 2026A Sorrento0-2
27 Sep 2026H SS Monopoli0-1
19 Sep 2026A Savoia1-1
Market aligned with main pickCrotone to WinBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 49% · edge +13.9 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Crotone Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Crotone's recent form shows 5 points gained with an average of 1.4 goals scored per game, outperforming Casarano's 2 points and 0.6 goals. This suggests Crotone is building momentum and offensive , contrasting with Casarano's struggles to score and secure points.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Crotone Over 2.5
20%Casarano Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head matches averaged 2.5 goals, aligning with Crotone's high over 2.5 goals rate this season. This trend indicates a fixture prone to multiple goals, driven by open play and attacking intent from Crotone, making goal markets relevant.

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