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Netherlands crestNetherlands
v
Uzbekistan crestUzbekistan

Friendlies | Mon 08 Jun, 19:45

Netherlands v Uzbekistan Stats

Data last updated: Tue 30 Jun 2026, 01:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Netherlands face Uzbekistan in Friendlies on Mon 08 Jun, 19:45. The Netherlands possess superior technical qualities and home advantage to dominate play at the Johan Cruijff Arena. The Netherlands had gone 10 matches unbeaten before Algeria ended that run with a 1-0 win, making this response test feel more meaningful than a routine warm-up.

BT4Y best bet

Five under Cannavaro to restrict space effectively, keeping scorelines tight and minimizing high-volume outcomes in international friendly fixtures

  • At 13/8, Netherlands Win implies roughly 38%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 41%.
  • Uzbekistan deploy a defensive back five under Cannavaro to restrict space effectively, keeping scorelines tight and minimizing high-volume outcomes in international friendly fixtures.
  • Netherlands have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Netherlands Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 41% for Netherlands Win sits against roughly 38% implied by the current price. Netherlands have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Netherlands Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Uzbekistan deploy a defensive back five under Cannavaro to restrict space effectively, keeping scorelines tight and minimizing high-volume outcomes in international friendly fixtures.

Model chance vs price41% model chance against roughly 38% implied
Neutral
Netherlands have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Uzbekistan deploy a defensive back five under Cannavaro.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Netherlands Win is the preferred angle because uzbekistan deploy a defensive back five under Cannavaro to restrict space effectively, keeping scorelines tight and minimizing high-volume outcomes in international friendly fixtures. Netherlands have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Netherlands Win angle more than a raw possession edge. Shomurodov remains hugely important as Uzbekistan’s all-time top scorer with that scoring level, but he cannot carry the attacking burden alone.

Main risk

Shomurodov remains hugely important as Uzbekistan’s all-time top scorer with 44 goals, but he cannot carry the attacking burden alone.

Key Data Signals

Netherlands Win evidence

Uzbekistan deploy a defensive back five under Cannavaro to restrict space effectively, keeping scorelines tight and minimizing high-volume.

Netherlands have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Netherlands Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

What To Watch In The Data

Netherlands Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Netherlands5.33
    Avg corners for
    Uzbekistan3
    Netherlands10.33
    Avg total corners
    Uzbekistan10
    Netherlands0
    Avg yellow cards
    Uzbekistan2
    Netherlands11
    Avg shots
    Uzbekistan6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 42% · edge +27 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
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    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.88
    Check odds @ 1.88
    Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Netherlands1
    Avg goals scored
    Uzbekistan2
    Netherlands1
    Avg goals conceded
    Uzbekistan2
    Netherlands67%
    BTTS rate
    Uzbekistan67%
    Netherlands33%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Uzbekistan67%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 50% · edge +26 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 54%
    2.4
    Check odds @ 2.4
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 68%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 80% · edge -39.5 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
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    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%
    1.88
    Check odds @ 1.88
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Netherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Netherlands to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Netherlands

    LDW
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    03 Jun 2026H Algeria0-1
    31 Mar 2026H Ecuador1-1
    27 Mar 2026H Norway2-1

    Uzbekistan

    LWD
    Last 51W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 1D 1L
    02 Jun 2026A Canada0-2
    30 Jan 2026H FC Urartu4-2
    26 Jan 2026H China2-2
    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 80% · edge -39.5 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
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    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 70%
    1.05
    Check odds @ 1.05
    Netherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Netherlands wins
    0Draws
    0Uzbekistan wins
    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 80% · edge -39.5 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 76%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 50%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    There is no strong recent head-to-head sample for Netherlands to Win, which makes current output, injuries and market timing more important than historic meetings.
    Season team stats

    Friendlies

    Netherlands4
    Played
    Uzbekistan4
    Netherlands1.3
    Avg goals for
    Uzbekistan1.8
    Netherlands1
    Avg goals against
    Uzbekistan2
    Netherlands0
    Clean sheets
    Uzbekistan0
    Market aligned with main pickNetherlands to WinBet365 guide price · Model 41% vs implied 80% · edge -39.5 pts
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Load more odds for this section
    Netherlands Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Season data supports Netherlands to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    33%Netherlands Over 2.5
    67%Uzbekistan Over 2.5
    -H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Netherlands sit at 33% and Uzbekistan sit at 67%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.