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Cardiff crestCardiff
v
Burnley crestBurnley

Championship | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

Cardiff v Burnley Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 00:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Cardiff hosts Burnley in a Championship clash where Cardiff's recent form shows more promise, having secured 8 points in their last matches compared to Burnley's 3. Cardiff's attack has been more potent, averaging 2.2 goals per game, while Burnley has managed just 1. Both teams have conceded 1.8 goals on average, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. The match carries importance for both sides seeking to climb the standings, with Cardiff positioned 18th and Burnley 22nd. Tactical discipline and finishing efficiency will be key in this competitive fixture at an unspecified venue.

BT4Y best bet

Cardiff to Win

  • Cardiff has earned 8 points recently versus Burnley's 3, showing better momentum.
  • Cardiff averages 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Burnley's 1.0.
  • Both teams concede 1.8 goals per match, suggesting defensive frailties.
  • Cardiff averages slightly more shots (13) and shots on target (6) than Burnley (12.6 shots, 3.4 on target).
  • Cardiff ranks 18th with 15 points, Burnley 22nd with 10, highlighting Cardiff's slight edge in league position.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Cardiff to win with a 73.1% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and attacking output. Cardiff's higher goal average and shot volume indicate better offensive quality, while their defensive record is comparable to Burnley's. The of 25.5% at of 2.1 suggests a strong betting opportunity. The data quality is solid for both teams, reinforcing in this selection. Cardiff's ability to convert chances and maintain pressure underpins the model's in a home victory.

Recent FormCardiff 8 points vs Burnley 3 points
Strong positive
Goals ScoredCardiff 2.2 per game vs Burnley 1.0
Strong positive
Shots on TargetCardiff 6 vs Burnley 3.4
Positive
Defensive ConcessionBoth concede 1.8 goals per game
Neutral
League PositionCardiff 18th vs Burnley 22nd
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Cardiff's recent form and attacking efficiency give them a tactical and statistical advantage over Burnley. Their higher goal output and better shot accuracy suggest they can control the game and secure victory. Burnley's defensive frailties and lower momentum make Cardiff the more likely winner in this Championship encounter.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Cardiff's attacking edge and match control

“Cardiff's offensive consistency and recent points haul position them well to capitalize on Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities. Their ability to sustain pressure and create quality chances should be decisive in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Cardiff to Win evidence

Cardiff has earned 8 points recently versus Burnley's 3, showing better momentum.

Cardiff averages 2.2 goals per game, significantly higher than Burnley's 1.0.

Both teams concede 1.8 goals per match, suggesting defensive frailties.

Cardiff averages slightly more shots (13) and shots on target (6) than Burnley (12.6 shots, 3.4 on target).

What To Watch In The Data

Cardiff to Win notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderately open game.
  • Cardiff's recent matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Burnley's is 60%, suggesting a tempo favoring multiple goals.
  • This trend supports expectations of an attacking game with chances for both sides to score, aligning with the BTTS and over 2.5 goals tendencies.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cardiff2.2
Avg goals scored
Burnley1
Cardiff1.8
Avg goals conceded
Burnley1.8
Cardiff60%
BTTS rate
Burnley80%
Cardiff80%
Over 2.5 goals
Burnley60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 81%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The goal trends show Cardiff averaging 2.2 goals per game and Burnley 1.0, with both teams conceding 1.8 goals on average. Burnley has a higher BTTS rate (80%) compared to Cardiff (60%), suggesting Burnley tends to score even in losses. This match could see multiple goals with both teams likely to find the net.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCardiff to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Cardiff Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 56%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
The 62.6% for Cardiff to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Cardiff have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 3 for Burnley. Jack Moylan has scored nine Championship goals for Cardiff, compared with three each for Burnley's Zeki Amdouni and Largie Ramazani.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Championship analysisfull betting preview for Cardiff v Burnleycorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cardiff

DLWDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
04 Nov 2026H West Ham3-3
31 Oct 2026A Wolves0-3
24 Oct 2026H Birmingham1-0
17 Oct 2026A Middlesbrough2-2
13 Oct 2026H Watford5-1

Burnley

DDLLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 5D 4L
03 Nov 2026A QPR1-1
31 Oct 2026H Portsmouth0-0
24 Oct 2026A Lincoln1-4
16 Oct 2026H Wolves1-2
13 Oct 2026H Charlton2-2
Market aligned with main pickCardiff to WinBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Cardiff Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Cardiff's recent form is markedly better, accumulating 8 points compared to Burnley's 3 in recent matches. Cardiff's offense has been more productive, scoring 2.2 goals per game, while Burnley struggles with just 1. This momentum difference suggests Cardiff is more confident and effective going into this fixture, increasing their chances of victory.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Cardiff Over 2.5
60%Burnley Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderately open game. Cardiff's recent matches have an 80% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Burnley's is 60%, suggesting a tempo favoring multiple goals. This trend supports expectations of an attacking game with chances for both sides to score, aligning with the BTTS and over 2.5 goals tendencies.

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