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Burton Albion crestBurton Albion
v
AFC Rushden & Diamonds crestAFC Rushden & Diamonds

FA Cup | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

Burton Albion v AFC Rushden & Diamonds Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This FA Cup clash features Burton Albion hosting AFC Rushden & Diamonds, with the latter arriving in strong recent form, having secured 12 points in their last fixtures and averaging 2.5 goals scored per game. Burton Albion's data is limited but their attacking players show promising shot volumes. AFC Rushden & Diamonds' aggressive offensive style and high over 2.5 goals rate of 100% suggest an open, high-scoring encounter. The match carries cup stakes that often encourage attacking play and risk-taking, setting the stage for multiple goals.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • AFC Rushden & Diamonds have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, indicating frequent high-scoring games.
  • Burton Albion attackers like M. Matthews Lewis average over 6 shots on target per 90 minutes, showing strong offensive intent.
  • AFC Rushden & Diamonds concede only 0.75 goals per game, suggesting they can maintain pressure and create counter opportunities.
  • Recent form data shows AFC Rushden & Diamonds scoring 2.5 goals per match, supporting an expectation of multiple goals.
  • Limited Burton Albion data means player attacking stats and AFC Rushden & Diamonds' form are key indicators for goal volume.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% chance, slightly above the implied 54.6% chance from , indicating a small positive . AFC Rushden & Diamonds' perfect recent over 2.5 goals rate and Burton Albion's high shot volumes from key attackers like M. Matthews Lewis support a high-scoring game. Despite limited data for Burton Albion, the attacking profiles and cup context suggest an open match with multiple goal opportunities. This combination of attacking intent and recent scoring trends underpins the model's in Over 3.5 Goals.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3.4 pts)
Positive
Implied Chance58% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3.4 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge58% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+3.4 pts)
Positive
AFC Rushden & Diamonds Over 2.5 Rate100%
Strong positive
Burton Albion Shot VolumeHigh from key attackers
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking FA Cup tie as AFC Rushden & Diamonds bring strong recent scoring form and Burton Albion's attackers show high shot activity. The combination of offensive pressure and cup stakes should produce a match with multiple goals, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection based on both tactical and statistical evidence.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking potential and recent form

“The attacking profiles of both sides, especially AFC Rushden & Diamonds' recent scoring spree and Burton Albion's shot-heavy forwards, set the stage for a high-scoring cup encounter that should exceed three goals.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

AFC Rushden & Diamonds have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, indicating frequent high-scoring games.

Burton Albion attackers like M. Matthews Lewis average over 6 shots on target per 90 minutes, showing strong offensive intent.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds concede only 0.75 goals per game, suggesting they can maintain pressure and create counter opportunities.

Recent form data shows AFC Rushden & Diamonds scoring 2.5 goals per match, supporting an expectation of multiple goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • Recent Over 2.5 Goals trends show AFC Rushden & Diamonds consistently involved in high-scoring matches, with a 100% rate in recent games.
  • This trend, combined with Burton Albion's attacking shot volumes, suggests a fast tempo and open play likely to produce multiple goals in this fixture.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Burton Albion

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Burton Albion yet.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

WWWW
Last 54W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 0D 0L
17 Oct 2026H Morecambe2-1
03 Oct 2026H Braintree2-1
19 Sep 2026H Peterborough Sports3-1
05 Sep 2026A Desborough Town3-0
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 99% · edge -13 pts
1.01
Check odds @ 1.01
Load more odds for this section
Burton Albion to WinBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
AFC Rushden & Diamonds to WinBetfred guide price · model 10%
21
Check odds @ 21
DrawBetfred guide price · model 10%
10
Check odds @ 10
AFC Rushden & Diamonds' perfect recent record with 12 points and a 100% over 2.5 goals rate underscores their offensive momentum. Burton Albion's form data is sparse, but their attackers' shot metrics suggest potential to contribute to a high-scoring game. The recent form trends favor an open match with multiple goals, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Burton Albion-
Avg goals scored
AFC Rushden & Diamonds2.5
Burton Albion-
Avg goals conceded
AFC Rushden & Diamonds0.75
Burton Albion-
BTTS rate
AFC Rushden & Diamonds75%
Burton Albion-
Over 2.5 goals
AFC Rushden & Diamonds100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
AFC Rushden & Diamonds have scored an average of 2.5 goals per game recently with a 75% BTTS rate, highlighting their offensive strength and defensive openness. Burton Albion's limited data prevents firm conclusions, but their attackers' shot volumes imply goal-scoring potential. This points to a game likely featuring multiple goals and both teams scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

FA Cup fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 75%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Burton Albion to WinBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
AFC Rushden & Diamonds to WinBetfred guide price · model 10%
21
Check odds @ 21
DrawBetfred guide price · model 10%
10
Check odds @ 10
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+3.4 pts).
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Burton Albion Over 2.5
100%AFC Rushden & Diamonds Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent Over 2.5 Goals trends show AFC Rushden & Diamonds consistently involved in high-scoring matches, with a 100% rate in recent games. This trend, combined with Burton Albion's attacking shot volumes, suggests a fast tempo and open play likely to produce multiple goals in this fixture.

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