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Ostia Mare crestOstia Mare
v
Spezia crestSpezia

Serie C - Girone B | Sat 07 Nov, 13:30

Ostia Mare v Spezia Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ostia Mare face Spezia in Serie C - Girone B on Sat 07 Nov, 13:30. Ostia Mare come in with 2 recent points and 0.4 goals per match, while Spezia have 13 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 1.95, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 51%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 66%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ostia Mare and 20% for Spezia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Spezia are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Ostia Mare at 0.4.
  • BTTS rates of 40% for Ostia Mare and 40% for Spezia show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 66% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 51% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ostia Mare and 20% for Spezia, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price66% model chance against roughly 51% implied
Positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 20% for Ostia Mare.Visible data support
Positive
Spezia are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Spezia are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Ostia Mare at 0.4. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Spezia are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Ostia Mare at 0.4.

BTTS rates of 40% for Ostia Mare and 40% for Spezia show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ostia Mare0.4
Avg goals scored
Spezia1.4
Ostia Mare1.2
Avg goals conceded
Spezia0.4
Ostia Mare40%
BTTS rate
Spezia40%
Ostia Mare20%
Over 2.5 goals
Spezia20%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.7 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 22%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 52%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ostia Mare

LLLDD
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
01 Nov 2026A Livorno0-1
23 Oct 2026H Vado1-2
18 Oct 2026A Pescara0-2
10 Oct 2026H Pianese0-0
04 Oct 2026A Latina1-1

Spezia

WDWWW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 109W 1D 0L
01 Nov 2026H Atalanta II2-1
24 Oct 2026H Latina1-1
18 Oct 2026A Ravenna1-0
10 Oct 2026H Gubbio2-0
04 Oct 2026A Reggiana1-0
Best odds for this sectionOstia Mare Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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Spezia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Spezia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Ostia Mare to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOstia Mare Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
Spezia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Spezia Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 76%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Ostia Mare to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 18%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Ostia Mare Draw No Bet is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Ostia Mare Over 2.5
20%Spezia Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ostia Mare sit at 20% and Spezia sit at 20%, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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