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RB Leipzig crestRB Leipzig
v
FC Augsburg crestFC Augsburg

Bundesliga | Sat 07 Nov, 14:30

RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 19:19 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

RB Leipzig face FC Augsburg in a Bundesliga clash where Augsburg's resilience and tactical discipline could prove decisive. Leipzig, ranked 4th, have shown attacking promise but recent form reveals defensive vulnerabilities, conceding 1.6 goals per match. Augsburg, sitting 10th, have struggled for points but maintain a high BTTS rate and an aggressive shot profile, suggesting they can challenge Leipzig's defense. This match poses a tactical battle with Augsburg's counter-attacking threat and Leipzig's need to secure points to maintain their top-four position, setting the stage for a competitive encounter with potential for Augsburg to avoid defeat.

BT4Y best bet

FC Augsburg Draw No Bet

  • Augsburg offers 13% on Draw No Bet at 3.45 .
  • Leipzig averages 2.6 goals scored but concedes 1.6 per game, showing defensive gaps.
  • Augsburg has 100% BTTS rate and 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open games.
  • Gregoritsch leads Augsburg with 5 goals and 2.64 shots on target per 90 minutes.
  • Leipzig's Harder averages 6.43 shots and shots on target per 90, highlighting attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors FC Augsburg Draw No Bet due to the significant value at 3.45 , reflecting a 42% chance versus a 29% implied market chance. Augsburg's high BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rates indicate open, competitive matches where they can score and avoid defeat. Despite Leipzig's stronger league position and attacking stats, their defensive concessions and Augsburg's offensive threats, led by Gregoritsch, create a scenario where Augsburg can at least secure a draw. The model is solid at 56%, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Value Edge42% model chance vs 29% implied (+13 pts)
Strong positive
Model Chance vs Market42% model chance vs 29% implied (+13 pts)
Strong positive
Augsburg BTTS Rate100%
Strong positive
Leipzig Defensive Concession1.6 goals per game
Positive
Confidence Level56%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Augsburg Draw No Bet is a tactical choice reflecting Augsburg's ability to score and resist defeat despite their lower league position. Leipzig's defensive lapses and Augsburg's attacking players like Gregoritsch create a balanced contest where Augsburg can avoid losing. The bet leverages Augsburg's resilience and Leipzig's inconsistency at the back, making it a sensible option for cautious backing.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Augsburg's attacking threat combined with Leipzig's defensive vulnerabilities makes the Draw No Bet a compelling option, offering protection while capitalizing on Augsburg's capacity to score and frustrate.”

Key Data Signals

FC Augsburg Draw No Bet evidence

Augsburg offers 13% on Draw No Bet at 3.45 .

Leipzig averages 2.6 goals scored but concedes 1.6 per game, showing defensive gaps.

Augsburg has 100% BTTS rate and 80% Over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open games.

Gregoritsch leads Augsburg with 5 goals and 2.64 shots on target per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Augsburg Draw No Bet notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.7, indicating a high-scoring trend.
  • Both teams' recent Over 2.5 goals rates (Augsburg 80%, Leipzig 60%) suggest this fixture will continue that pattern, with open play and attacking tempo likely to produce multiple goals and scoring opportunities.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

RB Leipzig2.6
Avg goals scored
FC Augsburg1.8
RB Leipzig1.6
Avg goals conceded
FC Augsburg2.4
RB Leipzig20%
BTTS rate
FC Augsburg100%
RB Leipzig60%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Augsburg80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 71% · edge +1.9 pts
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 58%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 28%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Both teams show strong tendencies for goals and BTTS, with Augsburg at 100% BTTS and Leipzig at 20%. The high Over 2.5 goals rates (Augsburg 80%, Leipzig 60%) indicate an open game likely to feature multiple goals and scoring from both sides, supporting the potential for Augsburg to score and avoid defeat.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFC Augsburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 CardsBetfred guide price · model 55%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
FC Augsburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
The 42% for FC Augsburg Draw No Bet sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price (+13 pts). RB Leipzig have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 2 for FC Augsburg.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

RB Leipzig

WWLWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 0D 3L
31 Oct 2026A FC Schalke 042-0
24 Oct 2026H SV Elversberg4-0
17 Oct 2026A Bayern München1-6
10 Oct 2026H Eintracht Frankfurt6-0
20 Sep 2026A Bayer Leverkusen0-2

FC Augsburg

LDLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 3L
31 Oct 2026H SC Freiburg1-2
24 Oct 2026H Union Berlin1-1
17 Oct 2026A SV Elversberg3-4
10 Oct 2026H Bayern München2-2
19 Sep 2026A Werder Bremen2-3
Market aligned with main pickFC Augsburg Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 29% · edge +13 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
FC Augsburg to WinBetfred guide price · model 23%
6
Check odds @ 6
Recent form shows Leipzig with 9 points and 2.6 goals scored per game but conceding 1.6, reflecting attacking strength tempered by defensive frailties. Augsburg has only 2 points recently but maintains a high BTTS and Over 2.5 goals rate, suggesting they remain competitive offensively despite poor results, supporting the Draw No Bet angle.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%RB Leipzig Over 2.5
80%FC Augsburg Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 3.7, indicating a high-scoring trend. Both teams' recent Over 2.5 goals rates (Augsburg 80%, Leipzig 60%) suggest this fixture will continue that pattern, with open play and attacking tempo likely to produce multiple goals and scoring opportunities.

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