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Birmingham crestBirmingham
v
Swansea crestSwansea

Championship | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

Birmingham v Swansea Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 21:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Birmingham and Swansea meet in a Championship clash where both teams sit level on 26 points, with Birmingham narrowly ahead in third place. Birmingham's recent form shows stronger defensive resilience, conceding just 0.4 goals per game compared to Swansea's 1.8, while maintaining a potent attack scoring 2.6 goals per match. Swansea's offense is less prolific, averaging 1.2 goals, and their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed. The match promises tactical discipline from Birmingham, who aim to capitalize on home advantage and their superior recent momentum to secure a vital win in a tightly contested league.

BT4Y best bet

Birmingham to Win

  • Birmingham ranks 3rd with 26 points, matching Swansea's 5th place but with better defensive stats.
  • Birmingham averages 2.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game, showing strong form.
  • Swansea's defense concedes 1.8 goals per match, indicating potential vulnerabilities.
  • Birmingham's shot accuracy and volume surpass Swansea, with 14.6 shots and 6 on target per game.
  • Birmingham's recent form yields 12 points compared to Swansea's 6, highlighting momentum advantage.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 74% chance for Birmingham to win, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive solidity. Birmingham's attack is more effective, averaging 2.6 goals per game, while Swansea struggles defensively, conceding 1.8 goals on average. The home side's higher shot volume and accuracy further bolster their chances. This combination of strong offense, tight defense, and home advantage creates a compelling case for Birmingham's victory. There are no price warnings, and the offer a positive , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability74%
Strong positive
Birmingham Defensive Record0.4 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Swansea Defensive Record1.8 goals conceded per game
Negative
Birmingham Attack Efficiency2.6 goals per game
Strong positive
Price Value Edge69.6% model chance vs 54.6% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Birmingham's tactical discipline and superior defensive record make them the likely winners in this Championship fixture. Their recent form, combined with a higher goal-scoring rate and home advantage, provides a strong foundation for victory. Swansea's defensive frailties and lower recent points tally add to Birmingham's edge in this matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Birmingham's blend of solid defense and efficient attack, coupled with their home form, positions them well to secure the win against a Swansea side that has struggled defensively this season.”

Key Data Signals

Birmingham to Win evidence

Birmingham ranks 3rd with 26 points, matching Swansea's 5th place but with better defensive stats.

Birmingham averages 2.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game, showing strong form.

Swansea's defense concedes 1.8 goals per match, indicating potential vulnerabilities.

Birmingham's shot accuracy and volume surpass Swansea, with 14.6 shots and 6 on target per game.

What To Watch In The Data

Birmingham to Win notes

  • The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 2.5 goals per game, indicating a moderately open contest.
  • Birmingham's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% this season suggests a tendency for more attacking matches, which could influence the tempo and scoring opportunities in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Birmingham2.6
Avg goals scored
Swansea1.2
Birmingham0.4
Avg goals conceded
Swansea1.8
Birmingham20%
BTTS rate
Swansea20%
Birmingham80%
Over 2.5 goals
Swansea60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams to score is unlikely given Birmingham's strong defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game, and Swansea's modest attacking output. The low BTTS rate of 20% for both sides suggests a controlled goals environment where Birmingham's defense could limit Swansea's chances effectively.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBirmingham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Birmingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
The 69.6% for Birmingham to Win sits against roughly 54.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Birmingham have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 6 for Swansea. For supporters who prefer to experience the Swansea City vs Birmingham City watch live online feed on a broad living room screen, home casting.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Birmingham

WWLWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
03 Nov 2026H Millwall3-0
31 Oct 2026A Lincoln3-1
24 Oct 2026A Cardiff0-1
17 Oct 2026H QPR3-0
13 Oct 2026H Preston4-0

Swansea

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 4L
03 Nov 2026A Portsmouth1-3
31 Oct 2026H Blackburn4-0
24 Oct 2026A QPR0-5
17 Oct 2026H West Ham0-1
13 Oct 2026A Millwall1-0
Market aligned with main pickBirmingham to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Birmingham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Birmingham's recent form is markedly superior, collecting 12 points in their last matches compared to Swansea's 6. Their ability to score frequently while maintaining a tight defense underpins this momentum, making Birmingham the more confident and consistent side heading into this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Birmingham Over 2.5
60%Swansea Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 2.5 goals per game, indicating a moderately open contest. Birmingham's high over 2.5 goals rate of 80% this season suggests a tendency for more attacking matches, which could influence the tempo and scoring opportunities in this fixture.

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