Football Stats Hub

Padova crestPadova
v
Empoli crestEmpoli

Serie B | Sat 07 Nov, 14:00

Padova v Empoli Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:39 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Padova hosts Empoli in a Serie B clash where Padova's recent form and league position provide a tactical edge. Padova sits comfortably in mid-table with 14 points, showing resilience and defensive solidity, while Empoli struggles near the relegation zone with only 8 points. Padova's ability to control games at home contrasts with Empoli's defensive vulnerabilities and inconsistency. This match carries importance for Padova to consolidate their standing and for Empoli to escape the relegation threat, setting up a contest where Padova's home advantage and recent momentum are key factors.

BT4Y best bet

Padova to Win

  • Padova holds a strong home form with 14 points and a solid defensive record.
  • Empoli ranks 18th with only 8 points and concedes over 2 goals per game on average.
  • Padova averages fewer shots but maintains defensive discipline, conceding just 1 goal per game.
  • Empoli's attack is more prolific but less efficient, with a high BTTS rate of 80%.
  • Historical meetings show moderate scoring, but Padova's form and position suggest control in this fixture.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Padova to win with a 68.5% chance, reflecting their superior league position, recent form, and defensive stability. Padova's ability to limit goals against and capitalize on home advantage contrasts with Empoli's defensive fragility and lower points tally. The price offers positive value given the implied chance is only 45.5%. While Empoli shows attacking intent, their defensive lapses and lower form reduce their likelihood of securing points here. This pick balances tactical control and statistical evidence for a home victory.

Model Chance60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Padova Defensive Record1 goal conceded per game
Positive
Empoli Defensive Record2.2 goals conceded per game
Negative
Recent PointsPadova 14 vs Empoli 8
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Padova's home form and defensive discipline make them the logical choice to secure victory against a struggling Empoli side. Empoli's defensive weaknesses and low points tally underpin Padova's advantage, while Padova's ability to manage games tactically supports this outcome. The data and tactical context align well for a Padova win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Padova's resilience and home stability provide a solid foundation against Empoli's defensive struggles, making the home win a compelling tactical and statistical selection.”

Key Data Signals

Padova to Win evidence

Padova holds a strong home form with 14 points and a solid defensive record.

Empoli ranks 18th with only 8 points and concedes over 2 goals per game on average.

Padova averages fewer shots but maintains defensive discipline, conceding just 1 goal per game.

Empoli's attack is more prolific but less efficient, with a high BTTS rate of 80%.

What To Watch In The Data

Padova to Win notes

  • In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 2.5, indicating moderate scoring.
  • Padova's low over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Empoli's higher rate, suggesting this match may see a controlled tempo with limited goals.
  • The trend points to a tactical game where Padova's defensive focus could suppress Empoli's attacking threat, supporting a lower scoring but decisive home win.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Padova1
Avg goals scored
Empoli1.2
Padova1
Avg goals conceded
Empoli2.2
Padova40%
BTTS rate
Empoli80%
Padova20%
Over 2.5 goals
Empoli60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Padova's matches have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 20% and a BTTS rate of 40%, indicating tight games with limited scoring. Empoli contrasts with a 60% over 2.5 and 80% BTTS rate, showing more open games and defensive frailty. This clash likely features Padova's defensive control against Empoli's attacking intent, suggesting a lower scoring game with possible goals from Empoli but limited overall.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPadova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Padova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 60.5% for Padova to Win sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Padova have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 2 for Empoli.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Padova

DWWLL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
31 Oct 2026A Catanzaro1-1
27 Oct 2026H Sudtirol2-0
24 Oct 2026A Avellino1-0
17 Oct 2026H Virtus Entella1-2
11 Oct 2026H Carrarese0-2

Empoli

DLLDL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
01 Nov 2026H Juve Stabia2-2
27 Oct 2026A Cesena1-2
23 Oct 2026H Vicenza Virtus0-2
17 Oct 2026A Ascoli1-1
10 Oct 2026H Palermo2-4
Market aligned with main pickPadova to WinBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Padova Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Padova's recent form shows 7 points gained with a strong defensive record, conceding just 1 goal per game, highlighting their ability to secure results. Empoli's form is weaker with only 2 points and a higher goals against average of 2.2, reflecting defensive struggles. This contrast in momentum and defensive solidity favors Padova's chances to control the match and secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%Padova Over 2.5
60%Empoli Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
In the last two head-to-head matches, the average goals scored were 2.5, indicating moderate scoring. Padova's low over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Empoli's higher rate, suggesting this match may see a controlled tempo with limited goals. The trend points to a tactical game where Padova's defensive focus could suppress Empoli's attacking threat, supporting a lower scoring but decisive home win.

Loading deeper match data…