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Portsmouth crestPortsmouth
v
Stoke City crestStoke City

Championship | Sat 07 Nov, 12:30

Portsmouth v Stoke City Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 09:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Portsmouth face Stoke City in Championship on Sat 07 Nov, 12:30. Portsmouth come in with 11 recent points and 1.4 goals per match, while Stoke City have 10 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • At 2.2, Over 2.5 Goals implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 55%.
  • The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Portsmouth and 40% for Stoke City, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
  • Portsmouth are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Stoke City at 1.4.
  • BTTS rates of 60% for Portsmouth and 40% for Stoke City show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 55% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Portsmouth and 40% for Stoke City, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Model chance vs price55% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Positive
The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Portsmouth and 40%.Visible data support
Positive
Portsmouth are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Over 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Portsmouth and 40% for Stoke City, so the goals angle is not just a price call. A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Portsmouth and 40% for Stoke City, so the goals angle is not just a price call.

Portsmouth are carrying more of the scoring load at 1.4 goals per match, with Stoke City at 1.4.

BTTS rates of 60% for Portsmouth and 40% for Stoke City show whether the goal expectation is shared or one-sided.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Use the last-five and H2H goal samples to judge whether Over 2.5 has a tempo route, not just a historical average.
  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Portsmouth1.4
Avg goals scored
Stoke City1.4
Portsmouth0.6
Avg goals conceded
Stoke City0.8
Portsmouth60%
BTTS rate
Stoke City40%
Portsmouth40%
Over 2.5 goals
Stoke City40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 46% · edge +9.4 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Championship fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 46% · edge +9.4 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Portsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Stoke City to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Stoke City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
Over 2.5 Goals is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Portsmouth

WDWDW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
03 Nov 2026H Swansea3-1
31 Oct 2026A Burnley0-0
24 Oct 2026H Millwall2-1
20 Oct 2026A Wolves1-1
17 Oct 2026A Norwich1-0

Stoke City

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
03 Nov 2026A Blackburn2-1
31 Oct 2026H Preston2-0
24 Oct 2026H Bristol City0-0
17 Oct 2026A Derby1-0
13 Oct 2026H Middlesbrough2-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 74% · edge +3.1 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 64%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Portsmouth to WinBet365 guide price · model 48%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Portsmouth Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Stoke City to WinBet365 guide price · model 36%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Stoke City Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Portsmouth Over 2.5
40%Stoke City Over 2.5
3.8H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Portsmouth sit at 40% and Stoke City sit at 40% with the H2H average at 3.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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