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Gateshead crestGateshead
v
Tamworth crestTamworth

National League | Fri 23 Oct, 19:45

Gateshead v Tamworth Stats

Data last updated: Fri 23 Oct 2026, 12:36 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This National League fixture features Gateshead hosting Tamworth on a Friday evening. Gateshead are struggling near the bottom of the table with just 4 points and a poor defensive record, conceding 3.4 goals per game. Tamworth sit higher with 14 points and have shown better recent form, earning 9 points in their last matches. Gateshead's home form is under pressure, but their tactical approach may focus on defensive solidity to avoid defeat. Tamworth's more balanced attack and defense set up a contest where Gateshead will aim to at least secure a draw at home.

BT4Y best bet

Gateshead or Draw

  • Gateshead have conceded an average of 3.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Tamworth have earned 9 points recently, showing better form than Gateshead.
  • Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating goal-scoring chances for both sides.
  • Gateshead's Over 2.5 Goals rate is 80%, suggesting open games with multiple goals.
  • The model gives a 48% chance for Gateshead or Draw, slightly above the implied .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Gateshead or Draw with a 48% chance, slightly above the 45.5% implied by at 2.2, indicating a small positive value. Despite Gateshead's defensive struggles, their home advantage and Tamworth's moderate scoring rate suggest Gateshead can avoid defeat. The recent form gap is narrow, and the model sees Gateshead's resilience as a key factor. No price warnings are necessary, making this a reasonable standard stake selection with a balanced risk-reward profile.

Model chance vs implied chance70% model chance vs 63.7% implied (+6.3 pts)
Positive
Gateshead defensive weakness3.4 goals conceded per game
Negative
Tamworth recent form9 points recently
Positive
BTTS ratesBoth teams 60%
Neutral
Over 2.5 goals tendencyGateshead 80%, Tamworth 60%
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Gateshead or Draw is a sensible pick given Gateshead's need to halt their poor run and Tamworth's moderate scoring. Tactically, Gateshead will prioritize defensive organization to secure at least a point, while Tamworth's recent form suggests they can challenge but may struggle to break down a motivated home side. The data supports a cautious approach favoring Gateshead's resilience at home.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Gateshead's defensive frailties are clear, but their home resilience and Tamworth's inconsistent attack make the double chance a pragmatic choice. Expect a tight contest with Gateshead aiming to avoid defeat rather than dominate.”

Key Data Signals

Gateshead or Draw evidence

Gateshead have conceded an average of 3.4 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Tamworth have earned 9 points recently, showing better form than Gateshead.

Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating goal-scoring chances for both sides.

Gateshead's Over 2.5 Goals rate is 80%, suggesting open games with multiple goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Gateshead or Draw notes

  • The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 2.7 goals per game, indicating a moderately open fixture with scoring opportunities.
  • Gateshead's 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches suggests a trend toward higher scoring games, while Tamworth's 60% rate aligns with this.
  • The trend points to a match with goal chances for both sides, though defensive lapses may be decisive.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Gateshead0.6
Avg goals scored
Tamworth1.4
Gateshead3.4
Avg goals conceded
Tamworth1.6
Gateshead60%
BTTS rate
Tamworth60%
Gateshead80%
Over 2.5 goals
Tamworth60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3.1 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, indicating a reasonable likelihood of goals at both ends. Gateshead's high Over 2.5 Goals rate at 80% suggests their matches tend to be open and high scoring, while Tamworth's 60% rate supports this trend. The average goals in their last 10 meetings is 2.7, reinforcing the potential for multiple goals and BTTS in this fixture.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionTamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Gateshead to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
The 70% for Gateshead or Draw sits against roughly 63.7% implied by the current price (+6.3 pts).
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Gateshead

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 9L
10 Oct 2026A FC Halifax Town1-4
03 Oct 2026H Worthing1-2
29 Sep 2026H Altrincham0-1
26 Sep 2026A Wealdstone0-4
19 Sep 2026H Southend1-6

Tamworth

LWWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Barrow1-2
03 Oct 2026A Hartlepool1-0
30 Sep 2026H Sutton Utd2-0
26 Sep 2026A Aldershot Town1-5
19 Sep 2026H Wealdstone2-1
Best odds for this sectionTamworth to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Gateshead to WinBetfred guide price · model 27%
4.33
Check odds @ 4.33
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 18%
4.1
Check odds @ 4.1
Tamworth's recent form is notably better, earning 9 points compared to Gateshead's 0, reflecting a momentum advantage. However, Gateshead's home matches have seen a high rate of goals conceded, indicating defensive frailty. This contrast suggests Gateshead will focus on damage limitation, while Tamworth aim to exploit their form edge, making a Gateshead or Draw outcome plausible as Gateshead seek to avoid defeat.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Gateshead Over 2.5
60%Tamworth Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
The last 10 meetings between these teams have averaged 2.7 goals per game, indicating a moderately open fixture with scoring opportunities. Gateshead's 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches suggests a trend toward higher scoring games, while Tamworth's 60% rate aligns with this. The trend points to a match with goal chances for both sides, though defensive lapses may be decisive.

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