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QPR crestQPR
v
Lincoln crestLincoln

Championship | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

QPR v Lincoln Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 23:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

QPR hosts Lincoln in a Championship clash where both teams have shown tendencies toward open, attacking play. QPR ranks 11th with a solid recent scoring rate, while Lincoln, sitting 19th, has struggled defensively but remains capable of contributing goals. Both sides have recorded 80% Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, indicating a high likelihood of multiple goals. This fixture promises a dynamic encounter with offensive intent from both teams, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring game at this mid-season point.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Both QPR and Lincoln have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.
  • QPR averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, showing attacking strength and some defensive vulnerability.
  • Lincoln concedes 2.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties likely to be exploited.
  • QPR averages 13 shots and 4.6 shots on target per match, indicating sustained offensive pressure.
  • Ladefoged averages over 4 shots per 90 minutes, providing a consistent attacking threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 67.5% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the 55.6% implied by of 1.8, offering an 11.9% . Both teams have strong recent trends for high-scoring games, with QPR's balanced attack and Lincoln's defensive vulnerabilities creating fertile ground for multiple goals. The attacking profiles of key players like R. Ladefoged further support the likelihood of goals. No data limitations affect , making this a solid value bet based on statistical and tactical factors.

Model Probability67.5% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+11.9 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance67.5% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+11.9 pts)
Neutral
Value Edge67.5% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+11.9 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rates80% for both teams
Strong positive
Key Player Attacking StatsHigh shots and shots on target rates
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with QPR's attacking players like R. Chair pushing forward aggressively, while Lincoln's defensive struggles increase the chance of multiple goals. The statistical trends and player roles suggest a lively encounter with Over 2.5 Goals as a sensible prediction.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical vulnerabilities

“QPR's offensive firepower combined with Lincoln's defensive vulnerabilities sets up a fixture ripe for goals. The attacking metrics and recent form strongly indicate a match where Over 2.5 Goals is a realistic outcome.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both QPR and Lincoln have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.

QPR averages 2.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, showing attacking strength and some defensive vulnerability.

Lincoln concedes 2.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties likely to be exploited.

QPR averages 13 shots and 4.6 shots on target per match, indicating sustained offensive pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a consistent trend toward high-scoring games.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both sides, combined with defensive lapses, create a fertile environment for goals, reinforcing the model's in this market.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

QPR2.2
Avg goals scored
Lincoln1.4
QPR1.8
Avg goals conceded
Lincoln2.6
QPR60%
BTTS rate
Lincoln60%
QPR80%
Over 2.5 goals
Lincoln80%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +11.9 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 48%
3
Check odds @ 3
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 31%
2
Check odds @ 2
Both QPR and Lincoln have recorded 80% Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, with QPR scoring 2.2 goals per game and Lincoln conceding 2.6. The balance of attacking output and defensive frailty suggests a high probability of goals from both sides, supporting a BTTS Yes scenario alongside Over 2.5 Goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 56% · edge +11.9 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 73%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
QPR to WinBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
QPR Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Lincoln Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Lincoln to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
The 67.5% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+11.9 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for QPR and 80% for Lincoln, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

QPR

DLWLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
03 Nov 2026H Burnley1-1
31 Oct 2026A Southampton1-4
24 Oct 2026H Swansea5-0
17 Oct 2026A Birmingham0-3
14 Oct 2026H Derby4-1

Lincoln

LLWDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
03 Nov 2026A Watford0-1
31 Oct 2026H Birmingham1-3
24 Oct 2026H Burnley4-1
17 Oct 2026A Millwall2-2
14 Oct 2026H West Ham0-6
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 86% vs implied 86% · edge +0.5 pts
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Load more odds for this section
QPR to WinBetUK guide price · model 66%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
QPR Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Lincoln Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Lincoln to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 23%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Recent form data shows QPR accumulating 7 points with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, while Lincoln has 4 points and matches the Over 2.5 rate at 80%. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches, reinforcing the likelihood of goals in this fixture based on current momentum and attacking output.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%QPR Over 2.5
80%Lincoln Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, both teams have maintained an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating a consistent trend toward high-scoring games. The tempo and attacking intent from both sides, combined with defensive lapses, create a fertile environment for goals, reinforcing the model's in this market.

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