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West Brom crestWest Brom
v
Millwall crestMillwall

Championship | Sat 07 Nov, 15:00

West Brom v Millwall Stats

Data last updated: Sat 07 Nov 2026, 00:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

West Brom hosts Millwall in a Championship clash where West Brom arrives in strong form, having secured 11 points from recent matches and boasting a potent attack averaging 2 goals per game. Millwall, positioned lower in the table, have struggled defensively, conceding 1.8 goals per game and showing vulnerability in recent fixtures. The tactical battle will likely see West Brom leveraging their offensive momentum and home advantage to control the game, while Millwall aims to balance their attacking efforts with shoring up defensive lapses. This fixture presents a clear test of West Brom's consistency against a Millwall side prone to conceding under pressure.

BT4Y best bet

West Brom to Win

  • West Brom has earned 11 points recently with a strong attacking record.
  • Millwall concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.
  • West Brom averages 16.8 shots per game with 4 on target, showing offensive pressure.
  • Millwall's recent form includes 4 points with a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%.
  • West Brom maintains a 100% BTTS rate, reflecting open games with goals at both ends.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates West Brom to win with a 74% chance, supported by their superior recent form, higher goal-scoring rate, and home advantage. West Brom's offensive efficiency, highlighted by 16.8 shots per game and strong goal threat from key players like I. Morgan, contrasts with Millwall's defensive struggles, conceding 1.8 goals per game. The of 14% indicates the offer attractive value, reinforcing in West Brom's ability to secure victory. No data limitations affect this assessment, making the pick a solid choice based on current performance metrics.

Recent FormWest Brom 11 points vs Millwall 4
Strong positive
Goal ScoringWest Brom 2.0 goals/game vs Millwall 1.4
Strong positive
Defensive RecordMillwall concedes 1.8 goals/game
Negative
Shots and PressureWest Brom 16.8 shots/game, 4 on target
Strong positive
Value Edge66.3% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

West Brom's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the clear favorite to win this match. Their ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Millwall's defensive vulnerabilities, which have led to conceding multiple goals recently. This combination of tactical control and statistical superiority supports backing West Brom for the win.

Main risk

Risk Factor: A single Millwall goal or a fourth West Ham goal would void the 0-3 exact score.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“West Brom's offensive consistency and home form provide a strong foundation for victory, while Millwall's defensive lapses present exploitable weaknesses. The statistical and tactical indicators align well for a confident home win.”

Key Data Signals

West Brom to Win evidence

West Brom has earned 11 points recently with a strong attacking record.

Millwall concedes 1.8 goals per game, indicating defensive weakness.

West Brom averages 16.8 shots per game with 4 on target, showing offensive pressure.

Millwall's recent form includes 4 points with a high over 2.5 goals rate at 80%.

What To Watch In The Data

West Brom to Win notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the fixture averages 1.4 goals per game, but recent trends show West Brom's matches frequently exceeding 2.5 goals due to their attacking style.
  • Millwall's games also tend to be high scoring, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate recently, indicating a likely open and goal-rich encounter.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

West Brom2
Avg goals scored
Millwall1.4
West Brom1.2
Avg goals conceded
Millwall1.8
West Brom100%
BTTS rate
Millwall60%
West Brom60%
Over 2.5 goals
Millwall80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Both teams have shown tendencies to score, with West Brom's 100% BTTS rate and Millwall's 60% BTTS rate. The high over 2.5 goals rate for Millwall at 80% and West Brom's 60% indicates an open game with multiple goals likely, supporting an attacking match narrative.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickWest Brom to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
West Brom Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 66.3% for West Brom to Win sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). West Brom have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 4 for Millwall. Millwall's defence has conceded heavily recently, though their attack, led by Arconte, can threaten.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

West Brom

DWDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
03 Nov 2026H Southampton1-1
31 Oct 2026A West Ham3-1
24 Oct 2026A Preston1-1
17 Oct 2026H Blackburn3-2
13 Oct 2026A Wrexham2-1

Millwall

LWLDL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
03 Nov 2026A Birmingham0-3
31 Oct 2026H Derby4-1
24 Oct 2026A Portsmouth1-2
17 Oct 2026H Lincoln2-2
13 Oct 2026H Swansea0-1
Market aligned with main pickWest Brom to WinBet365 guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +15 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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West Brom Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.55
Check odds @ 1.55
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
West Brom's recent form is strong, securing 11 points with consistent goal scoring and solid defense. Millwall's form is weaker with only 4 points and a higher goals conceded rate, highlighting a disparity that favors West Brom's winning chances in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%West Brom Over 2.5
80%Millwall Over 2.5
1.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the fixture averages 1.4 goals per game, but recent trends show West Brom's matches frequently exceeding 2.5 goals due to their attacking style. Millwall's games also tend to be high scoring, with an 80% over 2.5 goals rate recently, indicating a likely open and goal-rich encounter.

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