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Crotone crestCrotone
v
Giugliano crestGiugliano

Serie C - Girone C | Sat 07 Nov, 13:30

Crotone v Giugliano Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 07:41 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Crotone face Giugliano in Serie C - Girone C on Sat 07 Nov, 13:30. Crotone come in with 1 recent points and 1 goals per match, while Giugliano have 6 points and 0.8 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Giugliano to Win

  • At 4.33, Giugliano to Win implies roughly 23%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 38%.
  • Giugliano have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Crotone.
  • Crotone have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per match, which helps the Giugliano to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Crotone sit 20 in the table, while Giugliano sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 38% for Giugliano to Win sits against roughly 23% implied by the current price. Giugliano have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Crotone.

Model chance vs price38% model chance against roughly 23% implied
Strong positive
Giugliano have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Crotone have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Giugliano Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Giugliano have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Crotone. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Giugliano to Win evidence

Giugliano have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Crotone.

Crotone have the cleaner defensive sample at 2 conceded per match, which helps the Giugliano Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Crotone sit 20 in the table, while Giugliano sit 16, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Giugliano to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Crotone1
    Avg goals scored
    Giugliano0.8
    Crotone2
    Avg goals conceded
    Giugliano2.6
    Crotone60%
    BTTS rate
    Giugliano20%
    Crotone60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Giugliano60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 81% vs implied 82% · edge -0.6 pts
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 60% for Crotone and 60% for Giugliano, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickGiugliano to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
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    Giugliano Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 63%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 57%
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Giugliano to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Crotone

    LLDLL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 4D 5L
    01 Nov 2026A Potenza2-4
    26 Oct 2026H Casarano0-1
    18 Oct 2026A Bari0-0
    10 Oct 2026H Audace Cerignola2-3
    03 Oct 2026A Catania1-2

    Giugliano

    WLWLL
    Last 52W 0D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 6L
    31 Oct 2026H Casertana1-0
    25 Oct 2026A Catania0-6
    19 Oct 2026H Foggia3-1
    13 Oct 2026H Inter U230-4
    10 Oct 2026A Bari0-2
    Market aligned with main pickGiugliano to WinBetfred guide price · Model 38% vs implied 23% · edge +15 pts
    4.33
    Check odds @ 4.33
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    Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 63%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Giugliano Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 50%
    2.85
    Check odds @ 2.85
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Crotone Over 2.5
    60%Giugliano Over 2.5
    3.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Crotone sit at 60% and Giugliano sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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