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Cagliari crestCagliari
v
Frosinone crestFrosinone

Serie A | Sat 07 Nov, 14:00

Cagliari v Frosinone Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 09:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie A clash features mid-table Cagliari hosting sixth-placed Frosinone, who arrive in strong form with 10 points from recent matches compared to Cagliari's single point. Frosinone's attacking prowess and more stable defense contrast with Cagliari's struggles to score and contain opponents. The tactical setup suggests Frosinone will press to exploit Cagliari's defensive vulnerabilities, aiming to secure a valuable away victory in this competitive fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Frosinone to Win

  • Frosinone holds a 70% to win, with offering positive value at 2.5.
  • Frosinone averages 21.6 shots and 7 corners per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.
  • Cagliari concedes 2.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties.
  • Key Frosinone attackers like D. Bîrligea show high goal threat with 1.94 goals per 90 minutes.
  • Recent form heavily favors Frosinone, who have collected 10 points versus Cagliari's 1 in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Frosinone's superior recent form and attacking statistics underpin the model's in an away win. Averaging 3 goals per game and generating more than double Cagliari's shots, Frosinone's offensive control is clear. Cagliari's porous defense and low scoring rate further tilt the balance. The 2.5 reflect a positive value opportunity given the model's 70% win probability. No data limitations affect this assessment, making this a strong football-backed selection.

Recent FormFrosinone 10 points vs Cagliari 1 point
Strong positive
Shots & Offensive PressureFrosinone 21.6 shots/game vs Cagliari 10.4
Strong positive
Defensive WeaknessCagliari concedes 2.6 goals/game
Positive
Key Player ImpactD. Bîrligea 1.94 goals/90 minutes
Positive
Market Value Edge55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Frosinone's dynamic attack and recent momentum make them the tactical and statistical favorite to claim victory. Their ability to generate high shot volumes and exploit defensive gaps aligns with the data showing Cagliari's struggles at the back. This combination of form and football logic supports backing Frosinone to win in this Serie A matchup.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form-based confidence in Frosinone's win

“Frosinone's offensive firepower and consistent form create a compelling case for an away win, especially against a defensively vulnerable Cagliari side. Their ability to sustain pressure and convert chances is a decisive factor here.”

Key Data Signals

Frosinone to Win evidence

Frosinone holds a 70% to win, with offering positive value at 2.5.

Frosinone averages 21.6 shots and 7 corners per game, indicating strong offensive pressure.

Cagliari concedes 2.6 goals per game, highlighting defensive frailties.

Key Frosinone attackers like D. Bîrligea show high goal threat with 1.94 goals per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Frosinone to Win notes

  • In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.29, indicating a tendency for open, attacking matches.
  • Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Frosinone 80%, Cagliari 60%) support expectations of a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, aligning with the trend for goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Cagliari0.8
Avg goals scored
Frosinone3
Cagliari2.6
Avg goals conceded
Frosinone2
Cagliari60%
BTTS rate
Frosinone60%
Cagliari60%
Over 2.5 goals
Frosinone80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 69% · edge +3.9 pts
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 40%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 31%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, but Frosinone's higher goal average (3.0) versus Cagliari's 0.8 suggests a game leaning towards multiple goals. The combined attacking and defensive profiles indicate a likelihood of goals from both sides, supporting an open and competitive match scenario.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickFrosinone to WinBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Frosinone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
The 55% for Frosinone to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Frosinone have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Cagliari.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Cagliari

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
01 Nov 2026A Lazio1-2
27 Oct 2026A AS Roma2-4
24 Oct 2026H Bologna0-2
19 Oct 2026A Monza0-4
11 Oct 2026H Juventus1-1

Frosinone

WWDWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
01 Nov 2026H Torino2-0
29 Oct 2026H Lecce5-1
25 Oct 2026A Atalanta4-4
16 Oct 2026H Sassuolo4-2
10 Oct 2026A Napoli0-3
Market aligned with main pickFrosinone to WinBetUK guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Frosinone Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
Frosinone's recent run of 10 points contrasts sharply with Cagliari's single point, highlighting a momentum advantage. This form gap is reflected in Frosinone's higher goals scored and better defensive record over recent matches, suggesting they enter this fixture with and rhythm.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Cagliari Over 2.5
80%Frosinone Over 2.5
3.29H2H avg goals
In the last seven head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 3.29, indicating a tendency for open, attacking matches. Both teams' recent over 2.5 goals rates (Frosinone 80%, Cagliari 60%) support expectations of a high-tempo game with multiple scoring opportunities, aligning with the trend for goals in this fixture.

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