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MSV Duisburg crestMSV Duisburg
v
SV Elversberg crestSV Elversberg

DFB Pokal | Sat 22 Aug, 14:30

MSV Duisburg v SV Elversberg Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 07:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

MSV Duisburg face SV Elversberg in DFB Pokal on Sat 22 Aug, 14:30.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • At 2.6, Under 2.5 Goals implies roughly 39%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 51%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 51% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 39% implied by the current price.

Model chance vs price51% model chance against roughly 39% implied
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +12.4 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under 2.5 Goals is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

MSV Duisburg

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for MSV Duisburg yet.

SV Elversberg

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for SV Elversberg yet.

Best odds for this sectionSV Elversberg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 56% · edge +4.3 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 48%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
SV Elversberg to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
MSV Duisburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
MSV Duisburg to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
4
Check odds @ 4
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

MSV Duisburg-
Avg goals scored
SV Elversberg-
MSV Duisburg-
Avg goals conceded
SV Elversberg-
MSV Duisburg-
BTTS rate
SV Elversberg-
MSV Duisburg-
Over 2.5 goals
SV Elversberg-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 39% · edge +12.4 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 54%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionSV Elversberg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 60% vs implied 56% · edge +4.3 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
SV Elversberg to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
MSV Duisburg Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
MSV Duisburg to WinBetMGM guide price · model 25%
4
Check odds @ 4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 24%
4
Check odds @ 4
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
SV Elversberg Draw No Bet is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-MSV Duisburg Over 2.5
-SV Elversberg Over 2.5
2.75H2H avg goals

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