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Guadalajara Chivas crestGuadalajara Chivas
v
Atlante FC crestAtlante FC

Liga MX | Sun 01 Nov, 01:07

Guadalajara Chivas v Atlante FC Stats

Data last updated: Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Liga MX clash features Guadalajara Chivas hosting Atlante FC in a contest where defensive solidity and cautious tactics are expected to dominate. Guadalajara Chivas, sitting comfortably in 4th place, have shown a tendency for low-scoring matches, averaging just 0.8 goals per game while conceding the same. Atlante FC, struggling near the bottom in 16th, have a slightly higher goals conceded rate but have not consistently broken through offensively. Both teams' recent form suggests a tight encounter with limited goal-scoring opportunities, setting the stage for a match likely to stay under 2.5 goals.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Guadalajara Chivas average only 0.8 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating tight matches.
  • Atlante FC have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, but recent form leans towards fewer goals.
  • Both teams have a moderate BTTS rate of 40%, suggesting goals are not guaranteed from both sides.
  • Guadalajara Chivas average 17.6 shots per game with 5 on target, showing controlled attacking output.
  • Atlante FC's defensive record and lower league standing hint at a cautious approach to avoid defeat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 66% probability, reflecting the defensive tendencies and low scoring averages of both Guadalajara Chivas and Atlante FC. Guadalajara Chivas have not recorded any over 2.5 matches recently, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring game. Atlante FC's higher over 2.5 rate is tempered by their recent form and defensive vulnerabilities. The shot and goal data support a scenario where chances are limited and defenses hold firm. The level is high at 88%, indicating a strong statistical basis for this pick.

Guadalajara Chivas low goals scored and conceded0.8 goals per game
Strong positive
Atlante FC moderate over 2.5 rate but weaker attack40% over 2.5 matches
Neutral
Shot volume and qualityCombined average shots ~33, with moderate shots on target
Positive
Recent form goal trendsGuadalajara Chivas 0% over 2.5 rate recently
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Under 2.5 Goals is a sensible selection given Guadalajara Chivas' disciplined defensive record and Atlante FC's limited attacking threat. The data shows both teams favor cautious play, reflected in their low scoring averages and shot profiles. This match is likely to be tight and tactical, with few clear-cut chances, making a low-scoring outcome the most probable scenario.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · match tempo and defensive control

“This fixture's statistical profile points to a controlled, low-tempo game where defensive organization will limit goal-scoring opportunities, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Guadalajara Chivas average only 0.8 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating tight matches.

Both teams have a moderate BTTS rate of 40%, suggesting goals are not guaranteed from both sides.

Guadalajara Chivas average 17.6 shots per game with 5 on target, showing controlled attacking output.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five matches, Guadalajara Chivas have recorded no games over 2.5 goals, highlighting a trend of tight defensive matches.
  • Atlante FC's 40% over 2.5 rate is less consistent and influenced by occasional high-scoring games.
  • The trend panel suggests a slower tempo and fewer goal opportunities, with both teams likely prioritizing defensive structure over open attacking play.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Guadalajara Chivas0.8
Avg goals scored
Atlante FC1.2
Guadalajara Chivas0.8
Avg goals conceded
Atlante FC1.4
Guadalajara Chivas40%
BTTS rate
Atlante FC40%
Guadalajara Chivas0%
Over 2.5 goals
Atlante FC40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts
2.35
Check odds @ 2.35
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams have a moderate BTTS rate of 40%, suggesting goals from both sides are not guaranteed. Guadalajara Chivas' recent matches have been particularly tight with no overs, indicating a controlled goals environment. Atlante FC's attack is less potent, and combined with Guadalajara's defensive discipline, this match is likely to feature few goals and possibly a clean sheet for one side.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionAtlante FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 28% · edge +14 pts
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Load more odds for this section
Atlante FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Guadalajara Chivas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Guadalajara Chivas to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The 57.6% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 42.6% implied by the current price (+15 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 0% for Guadalajara Chivas and 40% for Atlante FC, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Guadalajara Chivas

WWDDL
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
25 Oct 2026A Monterrey1-0
21 Oct 2026H Necaxa1-0
18 Oct 2026H Tigres UANL1-1
11 Oct 2026A Atlas1-1
27 Sep 2026H Club Queretaro0-2

Atlante FC

LWLLW
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
24 Oct 2026H Atletico San Luis0-1
21 Oct 2026A FC Juarez1-0
17 Oct 2026H U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-2
11 Oct 2026A Club Queretaro0-2
26 Sep 2026H Monterrey4-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
Atlante FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
3.55
Check odds @ 3.55
Atlante FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
6
Check odds @ 6
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 79%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Guadalajara Chivas Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.27
Check odds @ 1.27
Guadalajara Chivas to WinBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Recent form data shows Guadalajara Chivas have accumulated 8 points with an average of 0.8 goals scored and conceded per game, and no matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Atlante FC have 6 points with a slightly higher goals for and against average but a 40% over 2.5 rate. The form trends favor a low-scoring match, especially given Guadalajara's defensive consistency and Atlante's inability to consistently break down opponents.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Guadalajara Chivas Over 2.5
40%Atlante FC Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In the last five matches, Guadalajara Chivas have recorded no games over 2.5 goals, highlighting a trend of tight defensive matches. Atlante FC's 40% over 2.5 rate is less consistent and influenced by occasional high-scoring games. The trend panel suggests a slower tempo and fewer goal opportunities, with both teams likely prioritizing defensive structure over open attacking play.

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