Motherwell

SC Freiburg

UEFA Europa Conference League | Thu 20 Aug, 19:30

Motherwell v SC Freiburg Stats

Data last updated: Wed 19 Aug 2026, 07:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Motherwell face SC Freiburg in the UEFA Europa Conference League first leg, with Motherwell showing solid recent form including 10 points from their last matches and a strong defensive record conceding only 0.25 goals per game. SC Freiburg's data is limited, adding uncertainty to their attacking threat assessment. Motherwell's home advantage and recent momentum set the stage for a competitive fixture where tactical discipline and exploiting Freiburg's unfamiliarity with the competition could be decisive.

BT4Y best bet

Motherwell to Win

Motherwell have earned 10 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.25 goals per game.
SC Freiburg's limited data makes their attacking threat less predictable, increasing uncertainty.
Motherwell average 3 shots on target per game, indicating offensive capability to challenge Freiburg's defense.
Motherwell maintain a moderate corners average of 3 per match, suggesting sustained attacking pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Motherwell to win with a 74% chance, reflecting their recent strong form and defensive solidity. The at 6.5 imply only a 15.4% chance, offering significant value. Despite limited data on SC Freiburg, Motherwell's consistent shot volume and defensive resilience underpin in their ability to secure victory. The model notes that the thinner sample for Freiburg means line-ups and tactical adjustments will be important, but current indicators strongly support a home win.

Recent formMotherwell 10 points, strong defense

Strong positive

Model chance vs odds74% chance vs 15.4% implied

Strong positive

SC Freiburg dataLimited, adds uncertainty

Neutral

Offensive stats3 SOT per game for Motherwell

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Motherwell's recent defensive strength and home form make them a solid pick to win this first leg. Their ability to limit goals conceded combined with consistent shot creation supports in a home victory against an uncertain Freiburg side.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Motherwell's defensive discipline and steady attacking output create a strong foundation for a home win, especially given Freiburg's limited exposure in this competition.”

Key Data Signals

Motherwell to Win evidence

Motherwell have earned 10 points recently with a strong defensive record, conceding just 0.25 goals per game.

SC Freiburg's limited data makes their attacking threat less predictable, increasing uncertainty.

Motherwell average 3 shots on target per game, indicating offensive capability to challenge Freiburg's defense.

Motherwell maintain a moderate corners average of 3 per match, suggesting sustained attacking pressure.

What To Watch In The Data

Motherwell to Win notes

Over the last five matches, Motherwell's games have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 25%, indicating a tendency for tighter scorelines.
This trend suggests the fixture may be cautious and tactical, with fewer goals scored overall, aligning with the defensive strengths observed in recent form.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Motherwell

WDWW

Last 53W 1D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 1D 0L

13 Aug 2026H HJK Helsinki2-0

06 Aug 2026A HJK Helsinki1-1

30 Jul 2026A HB Torshavn3-0

23 Jul 2026H HB Torshavn2-0

SC Freiburg

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for SC Freiburg yet.

Market aligned with main pickMotherwell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%

2.75

Check odds @ 2.75

Motherwell Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

Motherwell's recent form is strong, accumulating 10 points with only 0.25 goals conceded per game, highlighting defensive solidity. Their ability to maintain clean sheets and create scoring chances supports in a home win. SC Freiburg's lack of recent form data limits direct comparison but favors the better-documented home side.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Motherwell2

Avg goals scored

SC Freiburg-

Motherwell0.25

Avg goals conceded

SC Freiburg-

Motherwell25%

BTTS rate

SC Freiburg-

Motherwell25%

Over 2.5 goals

SC Freiburg-

Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 43% · edge +15 pts

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%

1.91

Check odds @ 1.91

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 22%

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Motherwell have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 25% and a similar BTTS rate, indicating their matches tend to be low scoring with tight defenses. SC Freiburg's data is insufficient to assess goal trends, but the available stats suggest a cautious game with limited goals and a possibility of one-sided scoring rather than both teams netting.

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Useful next reads

UEFA Europa Conference League fixtures and predictions Motherwell v SC Freiburg prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMotherwell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

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Motherwell Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 57%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

The for Motherwell to win are priced generously at 6.5, implying a 15.4% chance, while the model estimates a 74% probability. This large indicates a strong market opportunity, reflecting Motherwell's recent form and defensive reliability. The price is attractive and suggests the market underestimates Motherwell's chances significantly.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Motherwell wins

0Draws

0SC Freiburg wins

Market aligned with main pickMotherwell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

No previous head-to-head meetings exist between Motherwell and SC Freiburg, so historical data offers no direct insight. This lack of prior encounters increases uncertainty and places emphasis on current form and tactical preparation for both sides.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Motherwell3

Avg corners for

SC Freiburg-

Motherwell9

Avg total corners

SC Freiburg-

Motherwell1.5

Avg yellow cards

SC Freiburg-

Motherwell0

Avg shots

SC Freiburg-

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 55% · edge +1.9 pts

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

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Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 51%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Motherwell average 3 corners and 3 shots on target per game, showing sustained attacking pressure and decent shot volume. Their discipline is moderate, with 1.5 yellow cards per match, indicating a balanced approach between aggression and control. These factors suggest Motherwell can maintain offensive threat while managing defensive risks.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

UEFA Europa Conference League

Motherwell4

Played

SC Freiburg0

Motherwell2

Avg goals for

SC Freiburg0

Motherwell0.3

Avg goals against

SC Freiburg0

Motherwell3

Clean sheets

SC Freiburg0

Market aligned with main pickMotherwell to WinBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts

6.5

Check odds @ 6.5

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Motherwell Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 41%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

Motherwell's season stats show a robust defense conceding just 0.25 goals per game and a moderate attack with 2 goals scored recently. This defensive strength is key in European fixtures where away goals matter. SC Freiburg's limited season data restricts analysis but suggests caution in expecting high scoring from the visitors.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

25%Motherwell Over 2.5

-SC Freiburg Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Over the last five matches, Motherwell's games have a low over 2.5 goals rate of 25%, indicating a tendency for tighter scorelines. This trend suggests the fixture may be cautious and tactical, with fewer goals scored overall, aligning with the defensive strengths observed in recent form.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Motherwell v SC Freiburg Stats

Match Report

Motherwell to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Motherwell

SC Freiburg

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Football Stats Hub

Motherwell v SC Freiburg Stats

Match Report

Motherwell to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Motherwell

SC Freiburg

Continue the research

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