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Mexico crestMexico
v
South Africa crestSouth Africa

World Cup | Thu 11 Jun, 20:00

Mexico v South Africa Stats

Data last updated: Wed 08 Jul 2026, 06:32 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Mexico face South Africa in World Cup on Thu 11 Jun, 20:00. Mexico face South Africa in Mexico City in a World Cup Group A opener shaped by home strength, defensive control and South Africa’s resilience. Mexico look well-balanced with an 11-match unbeaten home run in all competitions.

BT4Y best bet

Mexico to Win Mexico present a highly balanced profile entering this opening group fixture, making them strong selections for an outright victory

  • At 4/1, Draw implies roughly 20%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 30%.
  • Their elite defensive setup has delivered 12 clean sheets in 20 matches, creating an imposing platform at home.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 30% for Draw sits against roughly 20% implied by the current price. Their elite defensive setup has delivered 12 clean sheets in 20 matches, creating an imposing platform at home.

Model chance vs price30% model chance against roughly 20% implied
Positive
Their elite defensive setup has delivered 12 clean sheets.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +10 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Draw is the preferred angle because their elite defensive setup has delivered 12 clean sheets in 20 matches, creating an imposing platform at home. Mexico and South Africa drew 1-1 in their previous World Cup meeting in 2010, but this time the backdrop is very different.

Main risk

Mexico and South Africa drew 1-1 in their previous World Cup meeting in 2010, but this time the backdrop is very different.

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Their elite defensive setup has delivered 12 clean sheets in 20 matches, creating an imposing platform at home.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 22% · edge +7.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    South Africa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    4.8
    Check odds @ 4.8
    South Africa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    8.5
    Check odds @ 8.5
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
    Draw is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Mexico-
    Avg goals scored
    South Africa-
    Mexico-
    Avg goals conceded
    South Africa-
    Mexico-
    BTTS rate
    South Africa-
    Mexico-
    Over 2.5 goals
    South Africa-
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 50% vs implied 40% · edge +10 pts
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Mexico

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for Mexico yet.

    South Africa

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for South Africa yet.

    Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 22% · edge +7.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 71%
    2.94
    Check odds @ 2.94
    South Africa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    4.8
    Check odds @ 4.8
    South Africa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    8.5
    Check odds @ 8.5
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.1
    Check odds @ 1.1
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Mexico to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    0Mexico wins
    1Draws
    0South Africa wins
    11 Jun 2010South Africa v Mexico1-1
    Market aligned with main pickDrawBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 22% · edge +7.8 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    South Africa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    8.5
    Check odds @ 8.5
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 50%
    2.5
    Check odds @ 2.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 48%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Mexico to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Draw, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    World Cup

    Mexico5
    Played
    South Africa4
    Mexico2
    Avg goals for
    South Africa0.5
    Mexico0.6
    Avg goals against
    South Africa1
    Mexico4
    Clean sheets
    South Africa1
    Best odds for this sectionSouth Africa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 21% · edge +30.7 pts
    4.8
    Check odds @ 4.8
    Load more odds for this section
    South Africa to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
    8.5
    Check odds @ 8.5
    Mexico Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    1.18
    Check odds @ 1.18
    Mexico to WinBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Season data supports South Africa Draw No Bet when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    1Mexico933006
    2South Africa43111-1
    World Cup standings are background only here: the useful read is whether the form and chance profile translate into control, territory and clear openings in this specific fixture.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    -Mexico Over 2.5
    -South Africa Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    Their elite defensive setup has delivered 12 clean sheets in 20 matches, creating an imposing platform at home.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Mexico v South Africa prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

    Read full prediction View match centre