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Derry City crestDerry City
v
Bohemians crestBohemians

Premier Division | Fri 12 Jun, 19:45

Derry City v Bohemians Stats

Data last updated: Thu 11 Jun 2026, 03:46 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division clash features Bohemians visiting Derry City on a Friday evening. Bohemians arrive in strong form, having collected 12 points recently and boasting a potent attack averaging 2.6 goals per game. Derry City, by contrast, have struggled for goals, scoring just 0.6 per match in their last outings. Bohemians' offensive threat and higher league standing create a tactical edge, while Derry City's defensive vulnerabilities and lower recent output add to the challenge they face at home. The fixture promises an intriguing battle between Bohemians' attacking intent and Derry City's resilience.

BT4Y best bet

Bohemians to Win

  • Bohemians have won 12 points recently versus Derry City's 3.
  • Bohemians average 2.6 goals per game, significantly higher than Derry City's 0.6.
  • Bohemians take 17.6 shots per game with 5.6 on target, outmatching Derry City's 10.8 shots and 3.2 on target.
  • Bohemians rank 2nd in the league with 34 points; Derry City sit 6th with 22 points.
  • Bohemians have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, indicating high-scoring matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Bohemians to Win is supported by their superior recent form and attacking efficiency, with a 70% reflecting in their ability to secure victory. Their higher shot volume and goal-scoring rate contrast sharply with Derry City's struggles in front of goal. Defensive metrics show Bohemians concede slightly more but compensate with offensive pressure. The model also notes Bohemians' strong league position and consistent over 2.5 goals matches, making them the favored side despite no price warning. This pick aligns well with the tactical and statistical profile of the fixture.

Recent FormBohemians 12 points vs Derry City 3
Strong positive
Goals Scored per GameBohemians 2.6 vs Derry City 0.6
Strong positive
Shots per GameBohemians 17.6 vs Derry City 10.8
Positive
League PositionBohemians 2nd vs Derry City 6th
Positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateBohemians 100% vs Derry City 40%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Bohemians' recent attacking form and league standing make them the clear favorites to win this match. Their ability to generate more shots and goals compared to Derry City suggests they can control the game and capitalize on scoring chances, making a Bohemians victory the most probable outcome.

Main risk

The main risk lies in Derry City's defensive resilience and potential to disrupt Bohemians' attacking rhythm, which could limit scoring opportunities and lead to a closer contest than expected.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Bohemians' offensive dynamism and higher league ranking give them a tactical and statistical edge, making them the logical choice to secure victory in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Bohemians to Win evidence

Bohemians have won 12 points recently versus Derry City's 3.

Bohemians average 2.6 goals per game, significantly higher than Derry City's 0.6.

Bohemians take 17.6 shots per game with 5.6 on target, outmatching Derry City's 10.8 shots and 3.2 on target.

Bohemians rank 2nd in the league with 34 points; Derry City sit 6th with 22 points.

What To Watch In The Data

Bohemians to Win notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per match is 2.2, with Bohemians' recent matches showing a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals.
  • This trend suggests an open game with attacking intent, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals and supporting an aggressive Bohemians approach.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Derry City6
Avg corners for
Bohemians6.6
Derry City9.8
Avg total corners
Bohemians9.6
Derry City4.2
Avg yellow cards
Bohemians2
Derry City10.8
Avg shots
Bohemians17.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Bohemians average slightly more corners (6.6) and significantly more shots (17.6) than Derry City, reflecting their attacking control and territorial control. Derry City's higher yellow card average (4.2) versus Bohemians (2) may indicate a more aggressive defensive approach, potentially leading to fouls and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Derry City0.6
Avg goals scored
Bohemians2.6
Derry City1
Avg goals conceded
Bohemians1.4
Derry City40%
BTTS rate
Bohemians100%
Derry City40%
Over 2.5 goals
Bohemians100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 52% · edge +20.9 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Bohemians have a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate recently, indicating their matches often feature multiple goals. Derry City's lower scoring and BTTS rates suggest they are less likely to contribute goals, but Bohemians' offensive pressure should drive a high-scoring game with goals from at least one side.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBohemians to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 44% · edge +26.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
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Bohemians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
The price for Bohemians to Win reflects their strong recent form and attacking superiority, aligning well with the model's 70% chance. There is no indication of overpricing, suggesting the market views this as a realistic outcome rather than a value bet, making it a solid but price-sensitive selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Derry City

LDDDL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 6D 2L
29 May 2026A Dundalk1-2
25 May 2026H Shelbourne0-0
22 May 2026H St Patrick's Athl.0-0
15 May 2026A Waterford2-2
08 May 2026A Drogheda United0-1

Bohemians

WLWWW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
29 May 2026A Sligo Rovers3-1
25 May 2026H Shamrock Rovers1-2
22 May 2026A Galway United4-2
15 May 2026H Drogheda United2-1
08 May 2026A Dundalk3-1
Market aligned with main pickBohemians to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 44% · edge +26.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Bohemians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Bohemians' recent form is impressive, securing 12 points with a high goal output, demonstrating consistent offensive execution and resilience. Derry City's 3 points in the same period highlight struggles in both scoring and results, suggesting Bohemians have momentum and advantage heading into this match.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Derry City wins
3Draws
2Bohemians wins
01 May 2026Bohemians v Derry City1-1
20 Feb 2026Derry City v Bohemians0-1
12 Sep 2025Bohemians v Derry City3-4
25 Jul 2025Derry City v Bohemians1-1
30 May 2025Bohemians v Derry City1-0
21 Feb 2025Derry City v Bohemians1-0
Market aligned with main pickBohemians to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 44% · edge +26.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The head-to-head record over 10 matches shows an average of 2.2 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests. While past meetings provide some context, recent form and current season stats offer stronger signals for this fixture, with Bohemians' attacking momentum likely to be decisive.
Season team stats

Premier Division

Derry City20
Played
Bohemians20
Derry City1.1
Avg goals for
Bohemians1.6
Derry City1.2
Avg goals against
Bohemians1.1
Derry City5
Clean sheets
Bohemians7
Market aligned with main pickBohemians to WinBet365 guide price · Model 70% vs implied 44% · edge +26.5 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Bohemians Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over the season, Bohemians maintain a strong attacking profile with 2.6 goals per game and a high shot volume, supporting their ability to win matches. Derry City's lower scoring rate and moderate defensive record suggest they are less likely to contain Bohemians' attack, reinforcing the away win selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Bohemians342097410
6Derry City22204106-1
Bohemians sit 2nd in the Premier Division with 34 points, reflecting consistent high-level performance and title contention. Derry City are 6th with 22 points, indicating mid-table status and less stability. The standings underline Bohemians' superior quality and motivation to maintain their position.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Derry City Over 2.5
100%Bohemians Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per match is 2.2, with Bohemians' recent matches showing a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals. This trend suggests an open game with attacking intent, increasing the likelihood of multiple goals and supporting an aggressive Bohemians approach.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Derry City v Bohemians prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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