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Derry City crestDerry City
v
Bohemians crestBohemians

Premier Division | Fri 12 Jun, 19:45

Derry City v Bohemians Stats

Data last updated: Wed 08 Jul 2026, 22:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Derry City face Bohemians in Premier Division on Fri 12 Jun, 19:45. Derry City welcome Bohemians on Friday 12 June 2026 for a 7.45pm League of Ireland Premier Division kick-off, and this is not just another Gameweek 20 fixture. Bohemians arrive in excellent form with four victories in five matches, including three straight away wins.

BT4Y lean · price warning

A home win, an away win, or a draw; extra time or penalty shootouts are entirely excluded from this market

  • At 11/8, Derry City Win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • They have scored 31 and conceded 21, leaving them with a healthy goal difference of plus 10.
  • Bohemians have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Derry City.
  • Derry City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Derry City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Derry City sit 6 in the table, while Bohemians sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

A home win, an away win, or a draw; extra time or penalty shootouts are entirely excluded from this market is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 42% while the model sits nearer 27% (-15.1 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Bohemians Draw No Bet shows a +21.9 pts edge at 1.85.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Derry City Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Bohemians have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Derry City. They have scored 31 and conceded 21, leaving them with a healthy goal difference of plus 10.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Negative
Bohemians have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Derry City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded.Visible data support
Positive
They have scored 31 and conceded 21, leaving them.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Derry City Win is the preferred angle because they have scored 31 and conceded 21, leaving them with a healthy goal difference of plus 10. Bohemians have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Derry City. Bohemians are highly productive offensively, averaging that scoring level per match recently, but remain vulnerable defensively after conceding that scoring level per game over their last ten fixtures.

Main risk

Bohemians are highly productive offensively, averaging 1.9 goals per match recently, but remain vulnerable defensively after conceding 1.7 goals per game over their last ten fixtures.

Key Data Signals

Derry City Win evidence

They have scored 31 and conceded 21, leaving them with a healthy goal difference of plus 10.

Bohemians have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 3 for Derry City.

Derry City have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Derry City Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Derry City sit 6 in the table, while Bohemians sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Derry City Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Derry City6
    Avg corners for
    Bohemians6.6
    Derry City9.8
    Avg total corners
    Bohemians9.6
    Derry City4.2
    Avg yellow cards
    Bohemians2
    Derry City10.8
    Avg shots
    Bohemians17.6
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 55% · edge +3.4 pts
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Derry City0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Bohemians2.6
    Derry City1
    Avg goals conceded
    Bohemians1.4
    Derry City40%
    BTTS rate
    Bohemians100%
    Derry City40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bohemians100%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 73% vs implied 52% · edge +20.9 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 31%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 33% · edge -6.3 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 64%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Derry City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Derry City to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Derry City

    LDDDL
    Last 50W 3D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 6D 2L
    29 May 2026A Dundalk1-2
    25 May 2026H Shelbourne0-0
    22 May 2026H St Patrick's Athl.0-0
    15 May 2026A Waterford2-2
    08 May 2026A Drogheda United0-1

    Bohemians

    WLWWW
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    29 May 2026A Sligo Rovers3-1
    25 May 2026H Shamrock Rovers1-2
    22 May 2026A Galway United4-2
    15 May 2026H Drogheda United2-1
    08 May 2026A Dundalk3-1
    Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 33% · edge -6.3 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Derry City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
    1.57
    Check odds @ 1.57
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Derry City wins
    3Draws
    2Bohemians wins
    01 May 2026Bohemians v Derry City1-1
    20 Feb 2026Derry City v Bohemians0-1
    12 Sep 2025Bohemians v Derry City3-4
    25 Jul 2025Derry City v Bohemians1-1
    30 May 2025Bohemians v Derry City1-0
    21 Feb 2025Derry City v Bohemians1-0
    Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 33% · edge -6.3 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 73%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Derry City to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Premier Division

    Derry City25
    Played
    Bohemians25
    Derry City1.3
    Avg goals for
    Bohemians1.6
    Derry City1.2
    Avg goals against
    Bohemians1.1
    Derry City6
    Clean sheets
    Bohemians10
    Market aligned with main pickDerry City to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 27% vs implied 33% · edge -6.3 pts
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    Load more odds for this section
    Derry City Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Season data supports Derry City to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Bohemians4325127613
    6Derry City292561181
    Derry City sit in position 6, while Bohemians sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Derry City Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Derry City Over 2.5
    100%Bohemians Over 2.5
    2.2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Derry City sit at 40% and Bohemians sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Derry City v Bohemians prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

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