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Tondela crestTondela
v
Moreirense crestMoreirense

Primeira Liga | Mon 11 May, 20:15

Tondela v Moreirense Stats

Data last updated: Sat 18 Jul 2026, 11:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Tondela face Moreirense in Primeira Liga on Mon 11 May, 20:15. Tondela have failed to win any of their last eight home league matches, failing to score in five of them. Tondela finally ended their winless run with a gritty victory under Gonçalo Feio and must treat this as a cup final for survival.

BT4Y lean · price warning

One of three outcomes: a home win, a draw, or an away win

  • At 5/6, Tondela Win implies roughly 55%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 33%.
  • Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Average
  • Moreirense have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Tondela.
  • Tondela have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Tondela Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Tondela sit 17 in the table, while Moreirense sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

One of three outcomes: a home win, a draw, or an away win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 55% while the model sits nearer 33% (-21.4 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Both Teams to Score shows a +38.1 pts edge at 3.5.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 33% for Tondela Win sits against roughly 55% implied by the current price. Moreirense have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Tondela. Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Average

Model chance vs price33% model chance against roughly 55% implied
Negative
Moreirense have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points.Visible data support
Positive
Tondela have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded AverageArticle support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Tondela Win is the preferred angle because defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Average Moreirense have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Tondela. It was not beautiful football, but at this stage nobody in Tondela is asking for beauty.

Main risk

It was not beautiful football, but at this stage nobody in Tondela is asking for beauty.

Key Data Signals

Tondela Win evidence

Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded Average

Moreirense have the stronger recent points return, taking 7 points from the sample compared with 5 for Tondela.

Tondela have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.6 conceded per match, which helps the Tondela Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Tondela sit 17 in the table, while Moreirense sit 7, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Tondela Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Tondela8
    Avg corners for
    Moreirense0.5
    Tondela15
    Avg total corners
    Moreirense9
    Tondela2
    Avg yellow cards
    Moreirense5
    Tondela22
    Avg shots
    Moreirense8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 69% vs implied 48% · edge +21.4 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

    Continue the research

    Useful next reads

    more Primeira Liga analysisfull betting preview for Tondela v Moreirensecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Tondela1
    Avg goals scored
    Moreirense1.2
    Tondela1.6
    Avg goals conceded
    Moreirense1.6
    Tondela40%
    BTTS rate
    Moreirense60%
    Tondela40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Moreirense40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 29% · edge +38.1 pts
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.3
    Check odds @ 1.3
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 25%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickTondela to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 53% · edge -19.5 pts
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Tondela Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Tondela to Win is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Tondela

    WDLLD
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 4D 4L
    03 May 2026A Casa Pia1-0
    29 Apr 2026A Sporting CP2-2
    25 Apr 2026H Nacional0-2
    19 Apr 2026A FC Porto0-2
    13 Apr 2026H GIL Vicente2-2

    Moreirense

    WLWDL
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    02 May 2026H Estrela3-2
    25 Apr 2026A Benfica1-4
    20 Apr 2026H Estoril1-0
    10 Apr 2026A Famalicao1-1
    04 Apr 2026H SC Braga0-1
    Market aligned with main pickTondela to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 53% · edge -19.5 pts
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Tondela Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Tondela wins
    3Draws
    4Moreirense wins
    11 Jan 2026Moreirense v Tondela1-0
    29 Apr 2023Moreirense v Tondela2-1
    14 Nov 2022Tondela v Moreirense1-1
    16 Apr 2022Moreirense v Tondela2-0
    03 Jan 2022Tondela v Moreirense2-1
    17 Apr 2021Moreirense v Tondela2-3
    Market aligned with main pickTondela to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 53% · edge -19.5 pts
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    3.5
    Check odds @ 3.5
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Tondela to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Primeira Liga

    Tondela34
    Played
    Moreirense34
    Tondela0.8
    Avg goals for
    Moreirense1.1
    Tondela1.6
    Avg goals against
    Moreirense1.4
    Tondela7
    Clean sheets
    Moreirense9
    Market aligned with main pickTondela to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 33% vs implied 53% · edge -19.5 pts
    1.9
    Check odds @ 1.9
    Load more odds for this section
    Tondela Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
    1.48
    Check odds @ 1.48
    Season data supports Tondela to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    7Moreirense433412715-12
    17Tondela283461018-28
    Tondela sit in position 17, while Moreirense sit in position 7, so table pressure belongs in the Tondela Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Tondela Over 2.5
    40%Moreirense Over 2.5
    2.3H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Tondela sit at 40% and Moreirense sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.3 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Tondela v Moreirense prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Competition and hubs

    Primeira Liga hubmore Primeira Liga analysisfull betting preview for Tondela v Moreirensecorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboard

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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