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New England Revolution crestNew England Revolution
v
New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red Bulls

Major League Soccer | Wed 28 Oct, 23:30

New England Revolution v New York Red Bulls Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer clash features New England Revolution hosting New York Red Bulls in a late October fixture with playoff implications. New England, sitting second in the standings, have shown resilience and attacking intent despite conceding more goals than their opponents. New York Red Bulls, ninth in the table, have been less consistent but possess attacking threats capable of unsettling defenses. Both teams have offensive capabilities, but New England's home form and higher league position suggest they will push for victory in this pivotal encounter.

BT4Y best bet

New England Revolution to Win

  • New England Revolution rank 2nd with 55 points, showing strong league form.
  • New England have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.
  • New York Red Bulls average more shots per game (19.2) but concede fewer goals (1.6) than New England.
  • Key players like P. Miller and Carles Gil provide goal threat and creative service for New England.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors New England Revolution to win with a 53.1% chance, slightly above the implied market chance of 51.3%, indicating a modest . New England's higher league standing and home advantage underpin this . Despite conceding 1.8 goals per game, their offensive output and recent points accumulation support a winning outcome. The model notes New York's decent defensive record but considers New England's attacking players and home form as decisive factors. No price warning is needed as the fairly reflect the probabilities.

Model Chance53.1% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+1.8 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance53.1% model chance vs 51.3% implied (+1.8 pts)
Neutral
Home Team League Rank2nd
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsNew England 9, New York 6
Positive
Goals Conceded per GameNew England 1.8, New York 1.6
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

New England Revolution's superior league position and home advantage make them the likely winners in this matchup. Their recent form shows an ability to secure points even when conceding, while New York Red Bulls' inconsistency and lower table position reduce their chances. The Revolution's attacking players have the quality to break down the Red Bulls' defense, making a home win the most probable outcome.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“New England's blend of attacking creativity and home form gives them the edge in this contest, despite some defensive vulnerabilities. Their ability to convert chances and maintain pressure should see them prevail over a less consistent New York side.”

Key Data Signals

New England Revolution to Win evidence

New England Revolution rank 2nd with 55 points, showing strong league form.

New England have an 80% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking openness.

New York Red Bulls average more shots per game (19.2) but concede fewer goals (1.6) than New England.

Key players like P. Miller and Carles Gil provide goal threat and creative service for New England.

What To Watch In The Data

New England Revolution to Win notes

  • Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a moderately high-scoring fixture historically.
  • Both teams have shown tendencies to participate in games with multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of an open, attacking encounter with chances for both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

New England Revolution1.2
Avg goals scored
New York Red Bulls1.4
New England Revolution1.8
Avg goals conceded
New York Red Bulls1.6
New England Revolution40%
BTTS rate
New York Red Bulls40%
New England Revolution80%
Over 2.5 goals
New York Red Bulls60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 90% · edge -5.7 pts
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 38%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Both teams have shown tendencies for matches with multiple goals, with New England's over 2.5 goals rate at 80% and New York's at 60%. Both teams to score rates are moderate at 40%, indicating that while goals are likely, clean sheets are also possible. This suggests an open game with chances for both sides but not necessarily both scoring.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickNew England Revolution to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 51% · edge +1.8 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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New England Revolution Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
The 53.1% for New England Revolution to Win sits against roughly 51.3% implied by the current price (+1.8 pts). New England Revolution have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 6 for New York Red Bulls.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

New England Revolution

WWWLL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 3L
25 Oct 2026A Philadelphia Union2-1
18 Oct 2026H Chicago Fire1-0
15 Oct 2026A FC Cincinnati3-2
11 Oct 2026H Seattle Sounders0-3
27 Sep 2026A Real Salt Lake0-3

New York Red Bulls

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
24 Oct 2026H Inter Miami2-0
18 Oct 2026H Toronto FC0-2
15 Oct 2026A DC United1-2
11 Oct 2026H San Diego4-1
01 Oct 2026H St. Louis City0-3
Market aligned with main pickNew England Revolution to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 51% · edge +1.8 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
New England Revolution Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
New England Revolution have accumulated 9 points recently, showing better momentum than New York's 6 points. Despite conceding more goals, New England's ability to secure points suggests resilience and effective game management. New York's form is less consistent, which may hinder their ability to challenge strongly in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%New England Revolution Over 2.5
60%New York Red Bulls Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating a moderately high-scoring fixture historically. Both teams have shown tendencies to participate in games with multiple goals, supporting the likelihood of an open, attacking encounter with chances for both sides.

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