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Santos crestSantos
v
Palmeiras crestPalmeiras

Serie A | Wed 28 Oct, 22:30

Santos v Palmeiras Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:51 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Palmeiras visit Santos in a crucial Serie A clash where Palmeiras hold a commanding second place with 69 points, while Santos sit eighth with 46 points. Palmeiras have been defensively solid, conceding just 0.2 goals per game recently, and boast a strong recent form with 13 points from their last five matches. Santos, despite a potent attack averaging 1.6 goals per game, have been vulnerable at the back, conceding 1.4 goals per match. Palmeiras' tactical discipline and superior form set the stage for a competitive match with Palmeiras as favorites.

BT4Y best bet

Palmeiras to Win

  • Palmeiras rank 2nd with 69 points, Santos 8th with 46 points
  • Palmeiras concede only 0.2 goals per game recently, showing defensive strength
  • Santos have a high BTTS rate at 100%, Palmeiras only 20%
  • Palmeiras average 21.6 shots per game, outshooting Santos' 15
  • Palmeiras have a strong recent form with 13 points in last five matches

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Palmeiras to win with a 69.6% chance, reflecting their strong defensive record and superior recent form. Palmeiras' ability to limit opponents to just 0.2 goals per game contrasts with Santos' more porous defense. Despite Santos' attacking threat, Palmeiras' higher shot volume and efficiency underpin the . The price offers positive value with a 25.2% edge, making Palmeiras a compelling pick. No data limitations affect , supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Recent Defensive FormPalmeiras concede 0.2 goals per game
Strong positive
Recent PointsPalmeiras 13 vs Santos 8 in last 5 matches
Strong positive
Shot VolumePalmeiras average 21.6 shots per game
Positive
BTTS RateSantos 100%, Palmeiras 20%
Neutral
Price Value Edge59.4% model chance vs 44.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Palmeiras' tactical discipline and defensive solidity provide a strong foundation for victory against a Santos side that struggles defensively despite attacking prowess. Palmeiras' superior recent form and shot creation further support their chances to secure three points in this key Serie A fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome and tactical balance

“Palmeiras' defensive resilience combined with their efficient attack makes them the clear favorites here, especially given Santos' defensive vulnerabilities and reliance on high-scoring games.”

Key Data Signals

Palmeiras to Win evidence

Palmeiras rank 2nd with 69 points, Santos 8th with 46 points

Palmeiras concede only 0.2 goals per game recently, showing defensive strength

Santos have a high BTTS rate at 100%, Palmeiras only 20%

Palmeiras average 21.6 shots per game, outshooting Santos' 15

What To Watch In The Data

Palmeiras to Win notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.8, suggesting moderately low-scoring encounters.
  • Santos' high Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Palmeiras' more cautious approach, indicating this match could hinge on Palmeiras' ability to contain Santos' attacking threats and keep the scoreline tight.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Santos1.6
Avg goals scored
Palmeiras1.8
Santos1.4
Avg goals conceded
Palmeiras0.2
Santos100%
BTTS rate
Palmeiras20%
Santos80%
Over 2.5 goals
Palmeiras20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 59% · edge +11.2 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 65%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Santos have a 100% BTTS rate and an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Palmeiras, however, have a low BTTS rate of 20% and a more conservative approach, suggesting a tactical battle where Palmeiras aim to control the game and limit Santos' scoring chances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
The 59.4% for Palmeiras to Win sits against roughly 44.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Palmeiras have the stronger recent points return, taking 13 points from the sample compared with 8 for Santos.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Santos

DWLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
25 Oct 2026H Bahia1-1
18 Oct 2026A Fluminense2-1
11 Oct 2026A Atletico-MG1-2
08 Oct 2026H Flamengo2-2
03 Oct 2026A Sao Paulo2-1

Palmeiras

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 3D 1L
24 Oct 2026H RB Bragantino2-0
17 Oct 2026A Atletico Paranaense2-0
11 Oct 2026H Corinthians4-1
09 Oct 2026H Bahia1-0
20 Sep 2026A Gremio0-0
Market aligned with main pickPalmeiras to WinBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
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Palmeiras Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Palmeiras have accumulated 13 points from their last five matches, showcasing strong momentum and defensive solidity by conceding only 0.2 goals per game. Santos have earned 8 points in the same period but have conceded 1.4 goals per game, reflecting defensive fragility that Palmeiras can exploit.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Santos Over 2.5
20%Palmeiras Over 2.5
1.8H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.8, suggesting moderately low-scoring encounters. Santos' high Over 2.5 Goals rate contrasts with Palmeiras' more cautious approach, indicating this match could hinge on Palmeiras' ability to contain Santos' attacking threats and keep the scoreline tight.

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