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Carrarese crestCarrarese
v
Arezzo crestArezzo

Serie B | Wed 28 Oct, 19:00

Carrarese v Arezzo Stats

Data last updated: Wed 28 Oct 2026, 23:21 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Carrarese and Arezzo meet in a Serie B clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape the outlook. Carrarese, positioned lower in the table, have struggled to find the net consistently but maintain a moderate offensive output, while Arezzo, sitting higher, have shown more attacking promise despite a leaky defense. Both teams have recent matches featuring goals, with Arezzo conceding more frequently. This fixture carries importance for both sides to improve their standings, suggesting an open game with potential for multiple goals given their contrasting defensive records and offensive efforts.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Carrarese and Arezzo have combined for an average of 3.33 goals in their last nine meetings.
  • Arezzo concedes an average of 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.
  • Carrarese averages 11.6 shots per game with 3.4 on target, showing attacking activity.
  • Both teams have recent over 2.5 goals rates of 40% (Carrarese) and 60% (Arezzo), supporting goal potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies a 59.3% chance for over 2.5 goals, supported by the high average goals in head-to-head clashes and recent offensive metrics. Carrarese's moderate shot volume and Arezzo's defensive concessions create conditions for multiple scoring opportunities. The positive of 10.5% at of 2.05 indicates this market is priced attractively relative to the model's probability, making it a compelling choice for bettors seeking goal-rich action.

Model Probability59.3% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+10.5 pts)
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Goals3.33 average goals per match
Strong positive
Arezzo Defensive Record1.6 goals conceded per game
Positive
Carrarese Offensive Shots11.6 shots per game, 3.4 on target
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open contest with both teams pushing forward, as Carrarese seek to capitalize on home advantage and Arezzo aim to exploit defensive lapses. The attacking profiles and recent goal trends suggest over 2.5 goals is a realistic outcome in this Serie B fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“This match features two sides with contrasting defensive records but similar attacking ambitions, making over 2.5 goals a logical expectation given their recent performances and head-to-head history.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Carrarese and Arezzo have combined for an average of 3.33 goals in their last nine meetings.

Arezzo concedes an average of 1.6 goals per game, indicating defensive frailty.

Carrarese averages 11.6 shots per game with 3.4 on target, showing attacking activity.

Both teams have recent over 2.5 goals rates of 40% (Carrarese) and 60% (Arezzo), supporting goal potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last nine meetings, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating a history of high-scoring games between these teams.
  • This trend, combined with recent attacking and defensive data, suggests a sustained tempo and chance creation conducive to over 2.5 goals in this match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Carrarese1
Avg goals scored
Arezzo0.8
Carrarese1
Avg goals conceded
Arezzo1.6
Carrarese40%
BTTS rate
Arezzo40%
Carrarese40%
Over 2.5 goals
Arezzo60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 49% · edge +10.5 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 77%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams have shown tendencies for goals in recent matches, with Arezzo conceding 1.6 goals per game and Carrarese maintaining a moderate scoring rate. Their head-to-head average of 3.33 goals per match further supports the likelihood of goals from both sides, making over 2.5 goals a plausible outcome.

Continue the research

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Carrarese

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 5L
25 Oct 2026A Palermo1-2
17 Oct 2026H Modena2-1
11 Oct 2026A Padova2-0
19 Sep 2026H Benevento0-1
12 Sep 2026A Catanzaro0-1

Arezzo

LWDLW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 4L
24 Oct 2026H Benevento0-3
18 Oct 2026A Sampdoria2-1
10 Oct 2026H Cremonese0-0
20 Sep 2026H Sudtirol1-4
11 Sep 2026A Empoli1-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 60% · edge +10.7 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Arezzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Home / DrawBetUK guide price · model 73%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Carrarese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Arezzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Carrarese to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data shows Carrarese scoring 1 goal per game with a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, while Arezzo scores 0.8 goals but concedes 1.6, with a 60% over 2.5 rate. This contrast highlights Arezzo's defensive vulnerability and Carrarese's moderate attack, supporting the expectation of a match with multiple goals.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 49% · edge +10.5 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Arezzo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Carrarese Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Arezzo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Carrarese to WinBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 59.3% for Over 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+10.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Carrarese and 60% for Arezzo, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Carrarese Over 2.5
60%Arezzo Over 2.5
3.33H2H avg goals
Over the last nine meetings, the average goals scored is 3.33, indicating a history of high-scoring games between these teams. This trend, combined with recent attacking and defensive data, suggests a sustained tempo and chance creation conducive to over 2.5 goals in this match.

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