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Carlisle crestCarlisle
v
Harrogate Town crestHarrogate Town

National League | Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Carlisle v Harrogate Town Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 20:15 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Harrogate Town arrives at Carlisle with strong momentum, sitting second in the National League and boasting a solid defensive record, conceding just 0.4 goals per game. Carlisle, positioned 11th, has shown resilience but less attacking firepower, averaging 1.8 goals scored per match. Harrogate's recent form includes 15 points from their last fixtures, highlighting their consistency and ability to secure results on the road. The tactical setup suggests Harrogate's disciplined defense and efficient attack could exploit Carlisle's vulnerabilities, making this a key test for both sides in midweek league action.

BT4Y best bet

Harrogate Town to Win

  • Harrogate Town ranks 2nd with 31 points, Carlisle 11th with 20 points.
  • Harrogate concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showcasing defensive strength.
  • Carlisle averages 1.8 goals scored per match, less than Harrogate's 2.4.
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating potential for goals.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model strongly favors Harrogate Town to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior league position, defensive solidity, and recent form. The of 3.1 offer positive value given the implied chance of 32.3%. Harrogate's ability to limit goals conceded combined with their efficient attack makes them a compelling pick against Carlisle, who have been less consistent. No data limitations affect , and the price offers a clear value opportunity without requiring caution.

Model Chance47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Positive
Value Edge47.3% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormHarrogate 15 points vs Carlisle 10 points
Positive
Defensive RecordHarrogate concedes 0.4 goals per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Harrogate Town's disciplined defense and superior recent form make them the tactical and statistical favorite to claim victory. Their ability to control games and limit goals conceded contrasts with Carlisle's more inconsistent performances, supporting a confident away win prediction in this National League clash.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Harrogate Town's defensive resilience and consistent point accumulation set them apart as strong contenders to win at Carlisle, where tactical discipline will be key to overcoming a mid-table opponent.”

Key Data Signals

Harrogate Town to Win evidence

Harrogate Town ranks 2nd with 31 points, Carlisle 11th with 20 points.

Harrogate concedes only 0.4 goals per game, showcasing defensive strength.

Carlisle averages 1.8 goals scored per match, less than Harrogate's 2.4.

Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating potential for goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Harrogate Town to Win notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals per game, aligning with both teams' recent Over 2.5 goals rate of 60%.
  • This trend suggests a moderately open game with chances for both sides, though Harrogate's defensive discipline may temper the overall goal count.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Carlisle1.8
Avg goals scored
Harrogate Town2.4
Carlisle1.4
Avg goals conceded
Harrogate Town0.4
Carlisle60%
BTTS rate
Harrogate Town40%
Carlisle60%
Over 2.5 goals
Harrogate Town60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 63% vs implied 65% · edge -2.1 pts
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 46%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 41%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams have a 60% rate of Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating a tendency for open play and goal-scoring opportunities. However, Harrogate's stronger defense suggests goals may come more from their attack, while Carlisle's moderate scoring rate supports a balanced goal expectation with possible BTTS.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHarrogate Town to WinBetUK guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Harrogate Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The 47.3% for Harrogate Town to Win sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Harrogate Town have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 10 for Carlisle.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Carlisle

WDWWL
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 3L
24 Oct 2026A Solihull Moors2-1
10 Oct 2026H Kidderminster Harriers0-0
03 Oct 2026A Aldershot Town3-1
29 Sep 2026A AFC Fylde2-0
26 Sep 2026H Woking2-5

Harrogate Town

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 108W 0D 2L
24 Oct 2026H Sutton Utd3-1
10 Oct 2026A Woking1-0
03 Oct 2026H AFC Hornchurch3-0
29 Sep 2026A Hartlepool1-0
26 Sep 2026H Eastleigh4-1
Market aligned with main pickHarrogate Town to WinBetUK guide price · Model 47% vs implied 32% · edge +15 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
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Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Harrogate Town Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 59%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Harrogate Town's recent accumulation of 15 points compared to Carlisle's 10 points demonstrates superior momentum and consistency. This form advantage underpins Harrogate's and tactical execution, suggesting they can maintain pressure and control throughout the match to secure a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Carlisle Over 2.5
60%Harrogate Town Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches average 2.1 goals per game, aligning with both teams' recent Over 2.5 goals rate of 60%. This trend suggests a moderately open game with chances for both sides, though Harrogate's defensive discipline may temper the overall goal count.

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