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ST Mirren crestST Mirren
v
Hibernian crestHibernian

Premiership | Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

ST Mirren v Hibernian Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Hibernian enter this Premiership clash at Easter Road with a strong home record, unbeaten in their last six league matches at this venue. Their tactical approach focuses on quick central attacks and effective through balls, exploiting St Mirren's defensive vulnerabilities, especially on the counter. St Mirren have conceded in 13 consecutive away games, averaging over two goals against per match, highlighting their defensive frailties on the road. Both teams come off mixed recent results, with Hibernian seeking to respond after a derby defeat and St Mirren recovering from a high-scoring loss, setting the stage for a competitive encounter with high stakes for league positioning.

BT4Y match pick · price watch

Hibernian to Win

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 48%, above the 39% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Hibernian unbeaten in last six home Premiership matches at Easter Road
  • St Mirren have conceded in 13 straight away games, averaging 2.08 goals against
  • Hibernian average 13.3 shots per game, showing strong attacking intent
  • St Mirren generate 5.23 corners per game, posing a set-piece threat
Price warning

Hibernian to Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 48% while the model sits nearer 39% (-9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 3.5 Goals shows a +7.4 pts edge at 2.62.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes Hibernian's strong home form and attacking efficiency as key factors supporting a home win. Despite the current being shorter than the model's implied chance, the football context—Hibernian's unbeaten home streak and St Mirren's defensive struggles away—justifies this selection. However, the negative suggests caution; lower staking or waiting for improved is advisable. The model notes that any late team news or line-up changes could enhance the value of this bet.

Hibernian Home FormUnbeaten in last 6 home matches
Strong positive
St Mirren Away DefenceConceded in 13 consecutive away games
Strong positive
Model vs Market Odds38.6% model chance vs 47.6% implied (-9 pts)
Negative
Attacking VolumeHibernian average 13.3 shots per game
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Hibernian's tactical strength lies in their quick central counter-attacks and home control, which should exploit St Mirren's defensive weaknesses on the road. The data supports this with Hibernian's superior shot volume and St Mirren's consistent away goals conceded. This combination makes a home win the most plausible outcome in this fixture.

Main risk

It offers a balance of straightforward risk and return.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical advantage for Hibernian

“Hibernian's unbeaten home run and ability to transition quickly through the middle create a tactical advantage against a St Mirren side vulnerable on the road. Their attacking volume and defensive solidity at Easter Road make them the clear favourites despite the price caution.”

Key Data Signals

Hibernian to Win evidence

Hibernian unbeaten in last six home Premiership matches at Easter Road

St Mirren have conceded in 13 straight away games, averaging 2.08 goals against

Hibernian average 13.3 shots per game, showing strong attacking intent

St Mirren generate 5.23 corners per game, posing a set-piece threat

What To Watch In The Data

Hibernian to Win notes

  • The last ten head-to-head matches have averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a relatively open fixture historically.
  • Combined with recent form, this suggests a good chance of Over 2.5 goals, driven by Hibernian's attacking volume and St Mirren's defensive lapses.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ST Mirren0.6
Avg goals scored
Hibernian0.6
ST Mirren2.6
Avg goals conceded
Hibernian1.4
ST Mirren40%
BTTS rate
Hibernian60%
ST Mirren80%
Over 2.5 goals
Hibernian40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 82% vs implied 83% · edge -1.7 pts
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have shown tendencies to score and concede in recent matches. Hibernian's attacking efficiency and St Mirren's set-piece threat, combined with their defensive vulnerabilities, suggest a high likelihood of both teams scoring, making BTTS a relevant consideration for this fixture.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Premiership analysisfull betting preview for ST Mirren v Hiberniancorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 48% · edge -9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Hibernian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 38.6% for Hibernian to Win sits against roughly 47.6% implied by the current price (-9 pts). ST Mirren have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 1 for Hibernian. Steve Robinson’s team have made a habit of drawing on the road, but they’ve also carried a big away issue: they concede, and they.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ST Mirren

WLLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 1D 5L
24 Oct 2026H Dundee2-1
17 Oct 2026A Aberdeen1-3
10 Oct 2026A Heart Of Midlothian0-5
19 Sep 2026H Dundee Utd0-3
09 Sep 2026A Rangers0-1

Hibernian

LLLDL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 7L
25 Oct 2026H Celtic1-2
17 Oct 2026H Falkirk1-2
10 Oct 2026A Dundee Utd0-1
19 Sep 2026H Aberdeen1-1
15 Sep 2026H Kilmarnock0-1
Market aligned with main pickHibernian to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 39% vs implied 48% · edge -9 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 68%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Hibernian Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
Recent form data shows Hibernian scoring 0.6 goals per game with a more stable defense conceding 1.4, while St Mirren have struggled with 2.6 goals conceded per game and only 0.6 scored. This contrast highlights Hibernian's better recent balance and supports their chances of winning.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%ST Mirren Over 2.5
40%Hibernian Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
The last ten head-to-head matches have averaged 3 goals per game, indicating a relatively open fixture historically. Combined with recent form, this suggests a good chance of Over 2.5 goals, driven by Hibernian's attacking volume and St Mirren's defensive lapses.

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