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Chelsea crestChelsea

Premier League | Sat 09 May, 12:30

Liverpool v Chelsea Stats

Data last updated: Fri 26 Jun 2026, 19:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Liverpool face Chelsea in Premier League on Sat 09 May, 12:30. Momentum Check: Comparative League Form Liverpool’s strong Anfield record of just two losses in sixteen matches makes them firm favourites against a Chelsea side suffering six straight defeats.

BT4Y best bet

The winner of the game and correctly predict that both teams will score

  • At 15/8, Liverpool Win implies roughly 35%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • Chelsea have scored in their last match and Liverpool are prone to conceding at home, making a 2-1 scoreline plausible.
  • Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 0 for Chelsea.
  • Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Liverpool Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Liverpool sit 5 in the table, while Chelsea sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Liverpool Win sits against roughly 35% implied by the current price. Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 0 for Chelsea. Chelsea have scored in their last match and Liverpool are prone to conceding at home, making a 2-1 scoreline plausible.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 35% implied
Strong positive
Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points.Visible data support
Positive
Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Chelsea have scored in their last match and Liverpool.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Liverpool Win is the preferred angle because chelsea have scored in their last match and Liverpool are prone to conceding at home, making a 2-1 scoreline plausible. Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 0 for Chelsea. That goal did at least end Chelsea’s miserable scoring drought, but the wider attacking issues remain severe.

Main risk

That goal did at least end Chelsea’s miserable scoring drought, but the wider attacking issues remain severe.

Key Data Signals

Liverpool Win evidence

Chelsea have scored in their last match and Liverpool are prone to conceding at home, making a 2-1.

Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 0 for Chelsea.

Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the Liverpool Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Liverpool sit 5 in the table, while Chelsea sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Liverpool Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Liverpool2
    Avg goals scored
    Chelsea0.2
    Liverpool1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Chelsea2.6
    Liverpool80%
    BTTS rate
    Chelsea20%
    Liverpool80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Chelsea80%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 81% vs implied 89% · edge -8.7 pts
    1.12
    Check odds @ 1.12
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 41%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 45%
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    Over 1.5 Goals does not fully support the current price: recent Over 2.5 rates are 80% for Liverpool and 80% for Chelsea, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickLiverpool to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 56% · edge +18.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Liverpool Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Liverpool to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Liverpool5.4
    Avg corners for
    Chelsea7
    Liverpool10.4
    Avg total corners
    Chelsea11.6
    Liverpool1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Chelsea2
    Liverpool13.2
    Avg shots
    Chelsea14.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 60% · edge +7.6 pts
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 61%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Liverpool

    LWWWL
    Last 53W 0D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 106W 1D 3L
    03 May 2026A Manchester United2-3
    25 Apr 2026H Crystal Palace3-1
    19 Apr 2026A Everton2-1
    11 Apr 2026H Fulham2-0
    21 Mar 2026A Brighton1-2

    Chelsea

    LLLLL
    Last 50W 0D 5L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 7L
    04 May 2026H Nottingham Forest1-3
    21 Apr 2026A Brighton0-3
    18 Apr 2026H Manchester United0-1
    12 Apr 2026H Manchester City0-3
    21 Mar 2026A Everton0-3
    Market aligned with main pickLiverpool to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 56% · edge +18.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Liverpool Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3Liverpool wins
    5Draws
    2Chelsea wins
    04 Oct 2025Chelsea v Liverpool2-1
    04 May 2025Chelsea v Liverpool3-1
    20 Oct 2024Liverpool v Chelsea2-1
    25 Feb 2024Chelsea v Liverpool0-1
    31 Jan 2024Liverpool v Chelsea4-1
    13 Aug 2023Chelsea v Liverpool1-1
    Market aligned with main pickLiverpool to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 56% · edge +18.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Liverpool to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Liverpool38
    Played
    Chelsea38
    Liverpool1.7
    Avg goals for
    Chelsea1.5
    Liverpool1.4
    Avg goals against
    Chelsea1.4
    Liverpool10
    Clean sheets
    Chelsea9
    Market aligned with main pickLiverpool to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 56% · edge +18.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Liverpool Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.5
    Check odds @ 1.5
    Season data supports Liverpool to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    5Liverpool60381791210
    10Chelsea52381410146
    Liverpool sit in position 5, while Chelsea sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the Liverpool Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%Liverpool Over 2.5
    80%Chelsea Over 2.5
    1.8H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Liverpool sit at 80% and Chelsea sit at 80% with the H2H average at 1.8 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.