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Chelsea crestChelsea

Premier League | Sat 01 May, 15:00

Liverpool v Chelsea Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 16:06 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Liverpool face Chelsea in Premier League on Sat 01 May, 15:00. Four consecutive victories have reinforced their resilience, particularly a remarkable 4-3 Champions League comeback against Villarreal after falling two goals behind inside half an hour. Their four-match winning streak contrasts with Chelsea’s scoring struggles and Alonso’s poor Anfield record.

BT4Y best bet

Liverpool Asian Handicap -0

  • At 15/2, Liverpool Asian Handicap -0 implies roughly 12%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Liverpool’s momentum and recent defensive improvement make the Asian Handicap -0.25 a cautious choice.
  • Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Chelsea.
  • Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Liverpool Asian Handicap -0 angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Liverpool sit 4 in the table, while Chelsea sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 27% for Liverpool Asian Handicap -0 sits against roughly 12% implied by the current price. Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Chelsea. Liverpool’s momentum and recent defensive improvement make the Asian Handicap -0.25 a cautious choice.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 12% implied
Strong positive
Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Liverpool’s momentum and recent defensive improvement make the Asian.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Liverpool Win is the preferred angle because liverpool’s momentum and recent defensive improvement make the Asian Handicap -0.25 a cautious choice. Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Chelsea. However, Liverpool’s remarkable 4-3 comeback against Villarreal proves they can recover from difficult situations.

Main risk

However, Liverpool’s remarkable 4-3 comeback against Villarreal proves they can recover from difficult situations.

Key Data Signals

Liverpool Asian Handicap -0 evidence

Liverpool’s momentum and recent defensive improvement make the Asian Handicap -0.25 a cautious choice.

Liverpool have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 7 for Chelsea.

Liverpool have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.8 conceded per match, which helps the Liverpool Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Liverpool sit 4 in the table, while Chelsea sit 5, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Liverpool Asian Handicap -0 notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Liverpool1
    Avg goals scored
    Chelsea1.8
    Liverpool0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    Chelsea1.6
    Liverpool20%
    BTTS rate
    Chelsea40%
    Liverpool40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Chelsea60%

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Liverpool

    WWLWD
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 1L
    25 Oct 2026H Brighton2-0
    17 Oct 2026A Brentford2-1
    11 Oct 2026H Manchester City0-3
    20 Sep 2026A Bournemouth1-0
    12 Sep 2026H Fulham0-0

    Chelsea

    LWWLD
    Last 52W 1D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 1D 3L
    24 Oct 2026H Tottenham0-2
    17 Oct 2026A Everton2-0
    10 Oct 2026H Bournemouth5-1
    18 Sep 2026A Brentford0-3
    12 Sep 2026H Hull City2-2

    No priced odds are available for this section yet.

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    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Liverpool Over 2.5
    60%Chelsea Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Liverpool sit at 40% and Chelsea sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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