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Genoa crestGenoa
v
Juventus crestJuventus

Serie A | Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

Genoa v Juventus Stats

Data last updated: Thu 29 Oct 2026, 00:17 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Juventus hosts Genoa in a Serie A clash where the home side carries a strong historical advantage, remaining unbeaten in their last 17 home meetings against Genoa. Juventus face pressure to maintain form amid recent inconsistencies, while Genoa approach with a reactive style focused on defensive solidity and set-piece threats. Juventus' possession control and high pass accuracy suggest control, but Genoa's aerial strength and transition threat could challenge the hosts. The absence of Juventus' top scorer Dusan Vlahović shifts creative responsibility to Kenan Yildiz, hinting at a tactical, patient game with limited goals.

BT4Y best bet

Juventus Asian Handicap -0.75

  • Juventus unbeaten in last 17 home matches vs Genoa
  • Genoa strong defensively with 16 clean sheets this season
  • Juventus average 57% possession and 86.7% pass accuracy
  • Genoa rely on aerial duels and set-piece opportunities
  • Kenan Yildiz leads Juventus attack in Vlahović's absence

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Genoa Win & Under 3.5 Goals as a football-led selection despite the current price being short and offering negative value. Genoa's defensive resilience, including 16 clean sheets, combined with Juventus' recent form dip and absence of their top scorer, supports a low-scoring upset. The model advises reduced staking or waiting for better due to the 23.4% versus 50% implied market chance. Improvements in line-ups or late data could enhance value. The thinner sample size for Genoa's defensive trends means team news and tactical execution will be crucial.

Model Chance52.6% model chance
Neutral
Market Implied Chance52.6% model chance
Negative
Defensive Stability16 clean sheets for Genoa
Positive
Juventus FormOnly 2 wins in last 7 matches
Neutral
Key Player AbsenceVlahović missing for Juventus
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Genoa's defensive discipline and ability to frustrate opponents make them a credible underdog against a Juventus side missing their top scorer. Juventus' possession control may not translate into goals if Genoa maintain compactness and capitalize on set-piece opportunities. This bet combines tactical resilience with recent form data to suggest a low-scoring Genoa win.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form analysis

“Genoa's defensive compactness and aerial strength provide a solid foundation to challenge Juventus' possession-based attack, especially with Juventus missing key offensive firepower. This match is poised for a tactical battle with limited goals and an upset possibility.”

Key Data Signals

Juventus Asian Handicap -0.75 evidence

Juventus unbeaten in last 17 home matches vs Genoa

Genoa strong defensively with 16 clean sheets this season

Juventus average 57% possession and 86.7% pass accuracy

Genoa rely on aerial duels and set-piece opportunities

What To Watch In The Data

Juventus Asian Handicap -0.75 notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating a tendency towards low to moderate scoring.
  • Both teams' recent matches show a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals, suggesting this fixture is more likely to produce fewer goals due to tactical caution and defensive focus, consistent with the under 3.5 goals expectation.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Genoa1
Avg goals scored
Juventus1.4
Genoa1.2
Avg goals conceded
Juventus1.4
Genoa60%
BTTS rate
Juventus40%
Genoa40%
Over 2.5 goals
Juventus40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 64%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams scoring appears unlikely given Genoa's strong defensive record with 16 clean sheets and Juventus' recent struggles to convert possession into goals without Vlahović. Genoa's average of 11.7 shots per game and Juventus' controlled attacking style suggest a match with limited goal opportunities, supporting the under 3.5 goals route.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGenoa to WinBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 63%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 40%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
The model rates Juventus Asian Handicap -0.75 at 52.6% on the latest available numbers. They have to keep the circulation clean, move Genoa side to side and release the front players into dangerous spaces before the away block.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Genoa

WLWLD
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 5L
25 Oct 2026H Venezia1-0
17 Oct 2026A AS Roma0-2
10 Oct 2026H Fiorentina2-1
20 Sep 2026A Parma1-2
12 Sep 2026H Frosinone1-1

Juventus

WLDWL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 2L
25 Oct 2026A Lecce2-0
18 Oct 2026H Lazio0-3
11 Oct 2026A Cagliari1-1
20 Sep 2026H Atalanta2-0
13 Sep 2026A Sassuolo2-3
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Genoa to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Genoa Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 51%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Recent form data shows both teams earning 7 points in their last matches, but Juventus have scored slightly more goals per game (1.4) compared to Genoa (1). Genoa's 40% over 2.5 goals rate and 60% BTTS rate contrast with Juventus' more conservative 40% rates, reinforcing the expectation of a low-scoring game with Genoa's defensive focus potentially limiting Juventus' scoring.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Genoa Over 2.5
40%Juventus Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating a tendency towards low to moderate scoring. Both teams' recent matches show a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals, suggesting this fixture is more likely to produce fewer goals due to tactical caution and defensive focus, consistent with the under 3.5 goals expectation.

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