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Parma crestParma
v
Udinese crestUdinese

Serie A | Wed 28 Oct, 17:30

Parma v Udinese Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 19:20 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Udinese arrive at this Serie A fixture with strong defensive momentum, having kept three consecutive clean sheets and recently defeating AC Milan 3-0. Parma, in contrast, have struggled to secure wins, failing to win in their last six matches and averaging just 0.8 goals per game. The tactical battle will hinge on Udinese's ability to exploit transitions and wide play against Parma's defensive vulnerabilities, while Parma will seek to leverage their wing-backs to stretch Udinese's defense. Historical control and recent form favor Udinese, but Parma's resilience and defensive solidity suggest a tight, low-scoring contest.

BT4Y best bet

Parma Win & Under 2.5 Goals

  • Udinese have kept three straight clean sheets, indicating strong defensive control.
  • Parma have failed to win any of their last six matches, showing offensive struggles.
  • Historical meetings favor Udinese with three consecutive wins over Parma.
  • Both teams have low goal averages, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.
  • Parma's defensive resilience and Udinese's transition threat set up a tactical battle.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies value in Parma winning with under 2.5 goals at 8/1 , reflecting a 20.3% chance versus an 11.1% implied probability. Parma's recent form, despite few wins, shows defensive resilience with a 60% BTTS no rate and 100% over 2.5 goals rate in recent matches, suggesting tight games with limited scoring. Udinese's defensive solidity and Parma's capacity to frustrate opponents create a scenario favoring a narrow Parma win with few goals. The price offers a strong edge given the tactical context and recent performance trends.

Model Chance20.3% model chance vs 11.1% implied (+9.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance20.3% model chance vs 11.1% implied (+9.2 pts)
Positive
Value Edge20.3% model chance vs 11.1% implied (+9.2 pts)
Strong positive
Parma Defensive Form60% BTTS No rate
Positive
Udinese Defensive Form3 consecutive clean sheets
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Parma's recent defensive resilience and tactical discipline make them a credible candidate for a narrow victory with limited goals. Udinese's strong defensive record and recent form suggest a tight match, but Parma's ability to frustrate and capitalize on key moments underpins this selection. The combination of Parma's stubbornness and Udinese's cautious approach supports the forecast of a low-scoring Parma win.

Main risk

They stay alive in matches, but they rarely seize them.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and defensive balance

“Parma's defensive organization and tactical patience could be decisive against Udinese's transition-based attack, making a narrow win with under 2.5 goals a compelling outcome in this tightly poised Serie A clash.”

Key Data Signals

Parma Win & Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Udinese have kept three straight clean sheets, indicating strong defensive control.

Parma have failed to win any of their last six matches, showing offensive struggles.

Historical meetings favor Udinese with three consecutive wins over Parma.

Both teams have low goal averages, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Parma Win & Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.1, but recent encounters have favored low-scoring outcomes with Udinese winning three straight 2-0 matches.
  • This trend suggests a pattern of controlled tempo and defensive solidity, reinforcing the expectation of under 2.5 goals in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Parma0.8
Avg goals scored
Udinese0.8
Parma2.2
Avg goals conceded
Udinese2.6
Parma60%
BTTS rate
Udinese40%
Parma100%
Over 2.5 goals
Udinese60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 74% · edge +14.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Recent form data shows Parma with a 60% rate of matches without both teams scoring and Udinese with three consecutive clean sheets, indicating a strong likelihood of a low-scoring game. Both teams average under one goal per match, reinforcing the expectation of under 2.5 goals and a probable shutout or minimal scoring.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Serie A hubfull betting preview for Parma v Udinesecorners trends hubplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickParma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Parma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The 20.3% for Parma Win & Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 11.1% implied by the current price (+9.2 pts). Udinese's home strength and recent clean sheets make them statistical favorites at even money pricing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Parma

LLLWL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 6L
24 Oct 2026A Lazio1-2
19 Oct 2026H Torino0-3
10 Oct 2026A Inter0-3
20 Sep 2026H Genoa2-1
14 Sep 2026A Como1-2

Udinese

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 6L
25 Oct 2026H AC Milan0-2
18 Oct 2026H Lecce0-3
12 Oct 2026A Torino1-2
19 Sep 2026H Cagliari0-1
14 Sep 2026A Inter3-5
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 82% vs implied 67% · edge +15 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Parma Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Parma to WinBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.9
Check odds @ 2.9
Parma's recent form shows a struggle to convert draws into wins, with only 3 points from their last six matches, but their defensive solidity remains a strength. Udinese's momentum from three straight clean sheets and a 3-0 win over Milan contrasts with Parma's offensive struggles, setting up a clash where Parma aims to disrupt Udinese's rhythm and capitalize on limited chances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Parma Over 2.5
60%Udinese Over 2.5
3.1H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 3.1, but recent encounters have favored low-scoring outcomes with Udinese winning three straight 2-0 matches. This trend suggests a pattern of controlled tempo and defensive solidity, reinforcing the expectation of under 2.5 goals in this fixture.

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