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ST Johnstone crestST Johnstone
v
Motherwell crestMotherwell

Premiership | Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

ST Johnstone v Motherwell Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

ST Johnstone hosts Motherwell in a Premiership clash where recent form and tactical setups suggest a competitive encounter. ST Johnstone have gathered 5 points recently, showing more resilience compared to Motherwell, who have yet to secure points in their last outings. Both teams average a modest 0.6 goals per game recently, indicating a cautious approach. ST Johnstone's defensive record is slightly better, conceding 1.4 goals per match versus Motherwell's 2.6, hinting at a potential edge in defensive solidity. The fixture carries importance for mid-table positioning, adding to the competitive intensity expected on the night.

BT4Y best bet

ST Johnstone to Win

  • ST Johnstone holds a strong 70% to win with positive value at 2.5 .
  • Recent form favors ST Johnstone with 5 points gained versus Motherwell's 0 in recent matches.
  • Motherwell concedes 2.6 goals per game, double ST Johnstone's 1.4, indicating defensive vulnerability.
  • Key ST Johnstone attackers like J. Lloyd show promising shot and goal threat stats.
  • Lowry is a notable goal threat but overall team form and defense lag behind ST Johnstone.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors ST Johnstone to win with a 70% chance, reflecting their superior recent form and defensive stability. Despite both teams scoring at a low rate recently, ST Johnstone's ability to limit goals conceded and generate quality chances through players like J. Lloyd supports this . Motherwell's defensive frailties and lack of recent points further enhance ST Johnstone's edge. The at 2.5 present positive value given the model's higher probability estimate, making this a solid selection based on current data and tactical context.

Model Win Probability70%
Strong positive
Recent Form PointsST Johnstone 5 vs Motherwell 0
Strong positive
Defensive RecordST Johnstone concedes 1.4 goals vs Motherwell 2.6
Positive
Key Player ThreatJ. Fowler 0.83 goals per 90, L. Lloyd 2.81 SOT/90
Positive
Price Value Edge55% model chance vs 40% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

ST Johnstone's recent form and defensive solidity provide a tactical and statistical foundation for expecting a home win. Their ability to create quality chances through Fowler and Lloyd contrasts with Motherwell's defensive struggles and lack of recent points, making ST Johnstone the favored side to secure all three points in this Premiership fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“ST Johnstone's blend of defensive resilience and attacking efficiency, especially through Fowler and Lloyd, positions them well against a struggling Motherwell side. Their recent form and home advantage make them a compelling pick for victory.”

Key Data Signals

ST Johnstone to Win evidence

ST Johnstone holds a strong 70% to win with positive value at 2.5 .

Recent form favors ST Johnstone with 5 points gained versus Motherwell's 0 in recent matches.

Motherwell concedes 2.6 goals per game, double ST Johnstone's 1.4, indicating defensive vulnerability.

Key ST Johnstone attackers like J. Lloyd show promising shot and goal threat stats.

What To Watch In The Data

ST Johnstone to Win notes

  • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderate scoring rate.
  • However, recent matches show a trend towards fewer goals, aligning with both teams' low recent scoring averages.
  • This suggests a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, favoring the side with stronger defensive organization and efficient finishing, which currently is ST Johnstone.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

ST Johnstone0.6
Avg goals scored
Motherwell0.6
ST Johnstone1.4
Avg goals conceded
Motherwell2.6
ST Johnstone40%
BTTS rate
Motherwell40%
ST Johnstone20%
Over 2.5 goals
Motherwell60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 55% vs implied 50% · edge +4.7 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 44%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 31%
3
Check odds @ 3
Both teams have averaged only 0.6 goals per game recently, indicating a low-scoring trend. BTTS rates are moderate at 40% for both sides, suggesting that while goals are scarce, both teams occasionally find the net. This low scoring environment points to a tight match where defensive organization will be key, aligning with ST Johnstone's stronger defensive record.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Premiership hubfull betting preview for ST Johnstone v Motherwellcorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickST Johnstone to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 60%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The 55% for ST Johnstone to Win sits against roughly 40% implied by the current price (+15 pts). ST Johnstone have the stronger recent points return, taking 5 points from the sample compared with 0 for Motherwell. St Johnstone’s home strength and Josh Fowler’s scoring record align with Motherwell’s defensive frailties, supporting a 2-1 scoreline.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

ST Johnstone

LDWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 4L
24 Oct 2026A Rangers0-4
17 Oct 2026H Dundee Utd1-1
11 Oct 2026A Aberdeen1-0
19 Sep 2026H Falkirk1-1
09 Sep 2026H Celtic0-1

Motherwell

LLLLL
Last 50W 0D 5L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 6L
25 Oct 2026H Heart Of Midlothian0-2
17 Oct 2026A Kilmarnock2-3
11 Oct 2026H Celtic0-2
19 Sep 2026A Dundee1-2
15 Sep 2026H Aberdeen0-4
Market aligned with main pickST Johnstone to WinBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 40% · edge +15 pts
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
ST Johnstone Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
ST Johnstone's recent accumulation of 5 points contrasts sharply with Motherwell's failure to gain any points, highlighting a momentum advantage. This form difference is critical in a mid-table clash where and recent results can influence performance. ST Johnstone's ability to secure points recently suggests they are better positioned to capitalize on home advantage and pressure Motherwell effectively.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

20%ST Johnstone Over 2.5
60%Motherwell Over 2.5
2.7H2H avg goals
In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a moderate scoring rate. However, recent matches show a trend towards fewer goals, aligning with both teams' low recent scoring averages. This suggests a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, favoring the side with stronger defensive organization and efficient finishing, which currently is ST Johnstone.

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