Football Stats Hub

Inter Miami crestInter Miami
v
FC Cincinnati crestFC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer | Wed 28 Oct, 23:30

Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati Stats

Data last updated: Tue 27 Oct 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Major League Soccer fixture features Inter Miami hosting FC Cincinnati in a late October clash with playoff implications. Inter Miami sits third in the standings with a strong home record, while FC Cincinnati, eighth, aims to secure points to boost their postseason chances. Both teams have shown balanced attacking and defensive traits recently, with Inter Miami averaging slightly more goals but FC Cincinnati demonstrating resilience and a capacity to limit opponents. Tactical discipline and midfield control will be key as both sides seek to avoid defeat in this tightly contested encounter.

BT4Y best bet

FC Cincinnati or Draw

  • FC Cincinnati or Draw offers strong value with a 28% positive edge over the implied .
  • Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking intent.
  • FC Cincinnati averages 16.4 shots per game, significantly more than Inter Miami's 10.8, showing offensive pressure.
  • Inter Miami ranks higher in the table but FC Cincinnati's defensive solidity supports a draw or away double chance.
  • Recent form shows both teams earning 9 points over their last few matches, suggesting competitive balance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors FC Cincinnati or Draw with a 66.4% chance, reflecting their solid defensive record and ability to generate offensive opportunities, as shown by their higher average shots and corners. Despite Inter Miami's higher league position, the data indicates a balanced contest where FC Cincinnati's resilience and attacking pressure make avoiding defeat likely. This pick is supported by recent form parity and tactical factors suggesting a cautious game where FC Cincinnati can secure at least a draw. No price warning is needed as the present clear value.

Model Chance46.5% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+14.2 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance46.5% model chance vs 32.3% implied (+14.2 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormBoth teams with 9 points recently
Positive
Shots and PressureFC Cincinnati averages 16.4 shots vs. Inter Miami's 10.8
Positive
League PositionInter Miami 3rd vs. FC Cincinnati 8th
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

FC Cincinnati or Draw is a tactically sound pick given FC Cincinnati's ability to apply offensive pressure and maintain defensive discipline, combined with Inter Miami's recent form showing some vulnerability. The data supports a cautious game where FC Cincinnati can avoid defeat, making this double chance a prudent choice based on both tactical and statistical evidence.

Main risk

That is not just entertaining — it signals a team that are increasingly aggressive going forward but also alarmingly open when transitions break against them.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and statistical justification for FC Cincinnati or Draw

“FC Cincinnati's higher shot volume and solid defensive metrics underpin this double chance pick, reflecting their capacity to frustrate Inter Miami and secure at least a draw in a closely matched contest.”

Key Data Signals

FC Cincinnati or Draw evidence

FC Cincinnati or Draw offers strong value with a 28% positive edge over the implied .

Both teams have a 60% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, indicating attacking intent.

FC Cincinnati averages 16.4 shots per game, significantly more than Inter Miami's 10.8, showing offensive pressure.

Inter Miami ranks higher in the table but FC Cincinnati's defensive solidity supports a draw or away double chance.

What To Watch In The Data

FC Cincinnati or Draw notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 4 goals per game, indicating high-scoring encounters.
  • Both teams' recent 60% over 2.5 goals rates align with this trend, suggesting a fast-paced game with attacking transitions and scoring opportunities from both sides, supporting expectations of an open match.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Inter Miami2
Avg goals scored
FC Cincinnati1.8
Inter Miami1
Avg goals conceded
FC Cincinnati1.4
Inter Miami40%
BTTS rate
FC Cincinnati60%
Inter Miami60%
Over 2.5 goals
FC Cincinnati60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 88% vs implied 94% · edge -6.3 pts
1.06
Check odds @ 1.06
Load more odds for this section
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
3
Check odds @ 3
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Both teams have a 60% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating open games with attacking intent. FC Cincinnati's higher shots and corners suggest they push forward effectively, while Inter Miami's slightly better defensive record may temper goal totals. The BTTS rate favors goals from both sides, supporting a lively contest with scoring chances.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionFC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 44% vs implied 29% · edge +15 pts
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
Load more odds for this section
FC Cincinnati to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Inter Miami Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Inter Miami to WinBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
The 46.5% for FC Cincinnati or Draw sits against roughly 32.3% implied by the current price (+14.2 pts). Inter Miami have won six of their last seven away MLS matches and arrive with immense attacking momentum.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Inter Miami

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 4D 2L
24 Oct 2026A New York Red Bulls0-2
18 Oct 2026A Atlanta United FC3-1
15 Oct 2026H New York City FC2-0
11 Oct 2026H DC United4-0
28 Sep 2026A Columbus Crew1-2

FC Cincinnati

WWLLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 5L
25 Oct 2026A DC United2-0
22 Oct 2026H DC United2-1
18 Oct 2026H Columbus Crew0-2
15 Oct 2026H New England Revolution2-3
11 Oct 2026A Atlanta United FC3-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 38% · edge +15 pts
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Load more odds for this section
FC Cincinnati Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 44%
3.45
Check odds @ 3.45
FC Cincinnati to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
Inter Miami Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Inter Miami to WinBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.48
Check odds @ 1.48
Recent form data shows both teams earning 9 points in their last matches, with Inter Miami scoring 2 goals and conceding 1 on average, while FC Cincinnati scores 1.8 and concedes 1.4. This parity in form suggests a balanced contest where neither side dominates, supporting a cautious double chance on FC Cincinnati or Draw.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Inter Miami Over 2.5
60%FC Cincinnati Over 2.5
4H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 4 goals per game, indicating high-scoring encounters. Both teams' recent 60% over 2.5 goals rates align with this trend, suggesting a fast-paced game with attacking transitions and scoring opportunities from both sides, supporting expectations of an open match.

Loading deeper match data…