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Nice crestNice
v
Lorient crestLorient

Ligue 1 | Sat 22 Aug, 19:45

Nice v Lorient Stats

Data last updated: Tue 06 Oct 2026, 11:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Nice face Lorient in Ligue 1 on Sat 22 Aug, 19:45. Lorient scored 14 league goals from set pieces last season, the highest total in Ligue 1, giving them a particularly useful attacking route in what could become a low-margin game. Nice's home struggles contrast with Lorient's unbeaten recent away form.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2

  • At 1/1, Under 2 implies roughly 50%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 52%.
  • When two teams with such pronounced recent scoring droughts meet, the likelihood of a high-scoring contest diminishes, particularly with neither side demonstrating the consistent.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 52% for Under 2 sits against roughly 50% implied by the current price. When two teams with such pronounced recent scoring droughts meet, the likelihood of a high-scoring contest diminishes, particularly with neither side demonstrating the consistent.

Model chance vs price52% model chance against roughly 50% implied
Neutral
When two teams with such pronounced recent scoring droughts.Article support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +1.8 pts
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Under that scoring level is the preferred angle because both teams have low recent scoring, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome. Nice have attacking options to end their scoring drought but rarely score multiple goals.

Main risk

Nice have attacking options to end their scoring drought but rarely score multiple goals.

Key Data Signals

Under 2 evidence

Both teams have low recent scoring, supporting an under 2.5 goals outcome.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2 notes

  • The goal line needs both attacking patterns to create box entries, transitions or set-piece pressure.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Nice

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Nice yet.

Lorient

Last 50W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Lorient yet.

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 77% · edge -6.1 pts
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Nice Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Nice to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Lorient to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Lorient Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2
Check odds @ 2
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Nice-
Avg goals scored
Lorient-
Nice-
Avg goals conceded
Lorient-
Nice-
BTTS rate
Lorient-
Nice-
Over 2.5 goals
Lorient-
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 52% vs implied 52% · edge -0.6 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 54%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet; goals for, goals conceded and recent over rates need to point in the same direction.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Ligue 1 fixtures and predictionsNice v Lorient predictionplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 52% · edge -0.2 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Nice Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Nice to WinBetfred guide price · model 43%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 50%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Lorient to WinBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Over 2.5 Goals is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

-Nice Over 2.5
-Lorient Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
When two teams with such pronounced recent scoring droughts meet, the likelihood of a high-scoring contest diminishes, particularly with neither side demonstrating the consistent open-play efficiency required.

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